Real Estate Crash thread

[BmillsSkier]

"Alps"

[Ted Striker]

UK market

I was comparing the widely held belief that American residential RE cost per square foot was in the $220-240 range, and the UK plus Wales is about £320. Maybe the discrepancy is average home size? Mea culpa on that one. I crossed the fine line from clever to stupid.

[skaredshtles]

<snip> Maybe the discrepancy is average home size?

Probably - the size of new-ish U.S. houses is fuckin' ridiculous.

[Ted Striker]

Predicting the future is nothing like assessing the economic impact of a fee structure. Do you not believe in economics?

I was actually just being a smartass.

But you can't be saying with a straight face that economists aren't attempting to predict the future. Krugman predicted a soft landing this morning on twitter. Hatzius - who's an order of magnitude smarter - agrees (with caveats).

The change in fee structure hasn't taken effect yet. One of the defendants hasn't settled.

I'll ask you, what part do you (and economists) disagree with? I said...
- Total commissions paid will be lower
- Market forces remain in effect
- Houses sell for what buyers are willing/able to pay (I assume this is one you don't like)
- There has been a housing deficit since the financial crisis that persists today. Population growth still outpaces building starts. No credible person thinks this year won't be a sellers' market.

So in light of that, I'm predicting buyers will have little leverage to squeeze that 3% from sellers. And since bidding wars will be the norm in all the hot markets this summer, even if they get the concession they'll just be giving it back.

[XXX-er]

when it came to predicting the future I did stupid things in RE and it all worked awesume

I'm not sure where that fits

[dan_pdx]

Well... You don't have to look very hard to find a buyer who feels that their buyers agent didn't really help them, i or made getting their commission a higher priority than advising their clients from a fiduciary perspective. How are those buyers going to do worse with no representation?

[Conundrum]

Hey, maybe buyers will be willing to negotiate an equitable fee directly with you when they see your value and then be fairly represented.

[Stew Pid]

Well... You don't have to look very hard to find a buyer who feels that their buyers agent didn't really help them, i or made getting their commission a higher priority than advising their clients from a fiduciary perspective. How are those buyers going to do worse with no representation?

No way!!! Name a profession that people dont complain about. Maybe many buyers are either too stupid to know themselves or simply come up with shit to complain about. What DONT people complain about?


What’ll likely happen is that Buyers will get shafted EVEN WORSE without an agent and will start complaining that they aren’t treated fairly.

I’m no fan of the RealtorTM machine, but how exactly WASNT anyone able to list at a lower commission than the 6%. You could ALWAYS negotiate the commission. As evidenced by RedFin and other discount brokerages.

All this emphasizes is how stupid most home sellers are. Just did whatever the RealtorTM said? Hell the whole RealtorTM thing is a sign how stupid most home sellers are. A Realtor isnt anything other than a brand name for certain real estate brokers. A Big Mac for real estate. And all these stupid fucks fell for it. “Gotta get a RealtorTM”. Fuck you deserve to get fleeces if you literally can’t figure out that legally speaking with respect to real estate markets, being a RealtorTM is nothing. You cant be a RealtorTM but not a licensed RE broker and sell RE. But you can NOT be a RealtorTM but sell RE as a licensed broker.

And how are they going to do worse with no representation? All that shows is your glaring lack of knowledge.
1) Buy house with obvious issues or market problem.
2) Overpay
3) who’ll negotiate the contract for you? Sellers agent screws you on contract terms. “Time is of essence” clause can fuck you.
4) Mortgage contingency - appraisal too low, but no one told you in time.
5) Inspections. Buyers will be much better finding their own inspectors? LOL
6) Due Diligence. Get a lawyer for all those documents, or become an expert yourself. LOL
7) closing statements. You’re an expert in that and noticing any discrepancies, right.
8) Zoning, RE issues. Buy a property to live in and run your business out of but oops, no “Home businesses” allowed in RES4 zoning in Smallville

[ötzi]

You cant be a RealtorTM but not a licensed RE broker and sell RE. But you can NOT be a RealtorTM but sell RE as a licensed broker.

All righty then.

[Stew Pid]

But I just don’t understand why BigMacs aren’t better burgers. Who knows? I need a BigMacTM, but I’ll sure as heck bitch about how poor quality meat are in hamburgers.

[Conundrum]

Should be easier for a good buyer realtor to negotiate an equitable value based fee doing all those things you listed.

[Conundrum]

And what if they dont have the extra CASH to pay it? Cant be financed under current lending rules. First time buyer has to come up with 20% down, closing costs plus and extra 2 or 3 % in cash.

Maybe they don't need to stretch their budget so they can afford their realtor. Sounds like something a realtorTM might say..."You can afford it, if you can finance it".

[AdironRider]

Having lived in a ski town, like 50% of my social circle has their realtors license (slight exaggeration but if you know you know). Every single one of them is delusional in their thinking that this isn't going to radically change the market for not just buyers agents, but also sellers agents as well.

Buyers agents are done. Everyone has zillow or realtor.com, and the idea that realtors were "fiduciaries" and pointing out anything of importance to a buyer just isn't the case. That has always been the lawyers and title guys doing that work. The only people arguing otherwise are realtors. Second, now that hiring a realtor is not a requirement to get on the MLS, sellers agents just lost the moat around their business. In a seller's market, a FSBO can now get on the mls and bypass all of the seller side bullshit. On an average home, there is no reason a sellers agent can justify 15k for a couple open houses or showing up to open a door.

I bet dollars to donuts, this is what you will see:

99% of the buy side will now be handled by the lawyers and title companies for flat fees. These already only cost a couple grand, at most, and are typical closing costs. No change here in terms of cost to the buyer.

On the sell side, you will see ala carte pricing for photos, admin work like placing the listing on the mls, etc. Lets say thats a grand or two. Commissions will drop significantly with pressure from FSBO and discount brokerage firms (redfin, etc). I bet within 5 years the standard is 1%.

Exceptions: ultra-luxe locales like Jackson, Aspen, Hamptons, which will still justify the network of a realtor that hustles and a nice marketing package. But that average 450k home in the burbs, yeah no. The only thing propping up the realtor industry was collusion and the moat surrounding the mls. Both are gone now.

Market price of a home is market price of a home, I don't think you will see much change in overall cost of real estate, but it is going to get cheaper for sellers, and at worst, stay the same for buyers. Within a few years people will realize that there is little a 1k real estate lawyer can't tell you within an hour of research at the town clerks office or just reading p&z regs for the area, and this "fear factor" of buying a house because it is expensive will recede substantially.

[neufox47]

^^ this. And RealtorsTM knew it or they wouldn’t have spent all that money lobbying and suing anyone who tried to compete with them.

Anyone questioning whether RealtorsTM are overpaid rent seekers only needs to look at other countries where extremely similar services are provided at a fraction of the cost.


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[Dantheman]

I'm inclined to agree. In 2008 I sold a condo with no agents on either side and it was stupid easy. Granted, we had bought that condo and a house in the previous 18 months so I already knew how offers/contracts worked, exactly who to call at the Title Co to get it all set up, etc., but ultimately it was not difficult to arrange with essentially a bare minimum of experience. Today, there's no reason you couldn't find all you need to know on Google and Youtube.

[MultiVerse]

Yeah, today 100% of home buyers say online websites are the most useful source of information for the home buying process compared with 2001 when only 41% of buyers even used the internet in their home search. Technology also means people are discovering homes they like better which partially explains why people are paying more, in turn causing price to go up. So it's not all about inflation:

"If internet search is increasing equilibrium match quality, then some of the recent observed house price increases may be due to improvements to match quality rather than basic supply and demand factors. Assuming that gross output measures should be adjusted for quality changes, this implies that real growth in the output of housing may be understated due to quality increases being misattributed to the price deflator"

https://www.nber.org/system/files/wo...886/w26886.pdf

[Toadman]

Clearly you never went to the Becton Alps.

Attachment 491253

What kind of wax do you need for those types of conditions?

[alpinevibes]

What kind of wax do you need for those types of conditions?

Sidebar: Kari Medig (great photographer and ski photog) has done a few cool shoots on dry skiing:

https://www.karimedigphoto.com/dry-s...graph-magazine

https://www.theskijournal.com/issue_feature/copenhagen/

[Timberridge]

Having lived in a ski town, like 50% of my social circle has their realtors license (slight exaggeration but if you know you know). Every single one of them is delusional in their thinking that this isn't going to radically change the market for not just buyers agents, but also sellers agents as well.

I see Only Fans benefitting from this. Any halfway hot stay at home mom who used to have a real estate license...

[MultiVerse]

One of the more amusing developments in I don't know the past decade or so is how many moms today look like yoga instructors.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Didn't read the lawsuit, not gonna play expert. Tell me how it would effect this scenario.

House is FSBO, Buyers agent won't show property to customer because seller won't pay the 3%.

Besides the fact that the 6% just seemed to be a high transaction price buoyed by collusion, the whole idea that the buyers agent is supposed to work in the best interest of their customer while being paid "by the deal" never passed the sniff test to me.

Commodity pricing for a non-commodity product is horse shit. Industry metric like average sales price and number of home sold drive profitability. If you do a below average job, you should expect to receive below average compensation.

[SKIP IN7RO]

I see Only Fans benefitting from this. Any halfway hot stay at home mom who used to have a real estate license...

just sellin' the lifestyle

[Percy Rideout]

Most people don’t deserve good representation.


And this settlement may well ensure that many buyers dont get it.

That’s who will lose in this. Sellers keep any extra if they can sell with a reduced commission and buyers will get fleeced with no representation.

But everyone is an expert, arent they?

But at least we’ll send some RealtorsTM packing!

Kinnikinnick is back with his alias after taking his ball and going home last time. Welcome back little buddy! Don't fly too close to the sun again!

What rule are your referring to?


I think that the mods just doxxed me - irony.

SOMEONE banned Cuntnickinick.

What if he is “taking matters into his own hands” as he threatened Did you endanger me?

Purged the friends list etc of those of you that I knew in meat to remove any association with the TrollGravityResearch

Guess that’s Adios Pendejos.

[oldnew_guy]

Last buying agent I had told me a day before the inspection by the inspector that I a) couldn't attend the inspection and b) couldn't inspect the house myself because "you might break something".

Fuck that guy. Seemed fine right up to that point.

[BmillsSkier]

I see Only Fans benefitting from this. Any halfway hot stay at home mom who used to have a real estate license...

If the realtors I've had experience with are any indicator, they're going to clean up. Every one was in the target 35-45 y/o demo with long blonde hair, ~5'5" and very attractive.

Last buying agent I had told me a day before the inspection by the inspector that I a) couldn't attend the inspection and b) couldn't inspect the house myself because "you might break something".

Fuck that guy. Seemed fine right up to that point.

Wait, what? The inspection that you're paying for? The house that you're buying? That's seriously fucked up.