Real Estate Crash thread

[Name Redacted]

Midwest is a large area, and yes, there are many great spots within those 12 states that one could live comfortably and affordably.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Yeah, I could be very happy in lots of places in wisco, da UP, Minnesota, Tennessee.. I don't think the wife would be, she's over cold winters, and the United States TBH and I'm not very far behind on that one.

[XXX-er]

I suspect for most, it's a schtick.

well I hope so too

just like us Canadians aren't really all chill and if we had access to firearms things would be different eh

[schuss]

Yeah, Midwest is fine for most. I'm too much of an opinionated new englander to last in the land of "midwest nice", but I've enjoyed my many random trips to Iowa and Nebraska. Shitty is Ohio, which replaces nice with salty and cranky.

The real reason for a lot the incentives etc. is a lot of state policy vs. young educated workers. I thought this was an interesting take on the subject (came across randomly but some interesting stats on doctor pay and other factors) - https://newrepublic.com/article/1768...es-brain-drain

[Toadman]

Ha ha. Bend is a big city compared to most ski towns. Try using in-network physicians in a red state rural area that's openly hostile to Obamacare.

Like I said a while back: the Teton Valley is a great place to retire to, if you use a private jet to access your healthcare.

I have an older friend here in Bend that has some fairly serious medical issues. He and the wife bought supplemental insurance for the life flight thing. And it was recommended to them by their own doctor as St. Charles would probably not be able to provide the care necessary if things went south. If you break a bone skiing or mtb riding you will be fine, since they see those daily. But you have some rare cancer or organ issues, then you are SOL in a small town.

[XXX-er]

In small town up here you get into emerg real quick like < an hr so If the pro's can't figure it out pretty quick they just medivac to vangroovy before anyone dies

[Art Shirk]

I live on an island near Seattle with a median age of 55, no real medical care, subject to unreliable ferry system. The dude who runs the estate sales when people kick off is making a near literal killing.

If I had a heart attack like phatty (dude sorry to hear), I’d be worm food like a lot of people out here.

Had a non life threatening injury but excruciatingly painful, earlier this year and it was 3.5 hours door to door to ER.

I bought life flight insurance in case something horrible happens.


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[skaredshtles]

<snip>
I bought life flight insurance in case something horrible happens.

This should be in the "getting old" thread...

[Harry]

That’s a helluva streamer jammed under your front seat

Note the size of my net [emoji3]

We use big dry flies too. Musky are some big mofos.





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[Whiteroom_Guardian]

^^^^NOICE!!!

[teleee]

Note the size of my net [emoji3]

We use big dry flies too. Musky are some big mofos.





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I gotta come visit!


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[Harry]

well I hope so too

just like us Canadians aren't really all chill and if we had access to firearms things would be different eh

We already know that from watching Trailer Park Boys.


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[TAFKALVS]

All this WFH hand wringing kinda makes me laugh.

If you don’t know my background I’ve lived in the mountains since moving out at 18. (I’m in my 30s now.) I’ve been an entrepreneur to some degree with different businesses and experiences in addition to the typical mountain town jobs I’ve held (ski instructor, trail crew.) Some success, some failure. I’ve shared or overshared some of those experiences in the past on here. I had a some struggles in the last few years that pushed me to go back school, close out my bachelors degree, “learn to code” (seriously), and 3 years later I found myself working as a “tech bro”.

WFH enabled me to continue to live in the community that I feel home in (more so than anywhere else) and as the company I’m working for has grown, I have recruited others in the area (and a few mags) along the way.

My WFH tech company now has 2 offices, one in the mountain town I live in and one in a mountain adjacent city and is more and more embedded in the communities we work from. We started “Remote First” but I started recruiting/hiring in the local area to the point that we’ve created 40 net new jobs in the local area, all of which pay better than what most local employers offer. Not silicone valley wages by any measure, but meaningful work and pay that allows people to do a lot more than just “survive”.

Because of the company, multiple employees have purchased homes, are building homes which pays local contractors, when we have people visiting we’re going to breakfast/lunch/dinner, they’re staying in hotels, our employees are going to lunch, our employees are buying passes at the ski area, they’re donating to the local trails org, they’re paying income and property taxes, my business is paying state taxes… there’s a big halo effect.

Not trying to virtue signal or humble brag (or maybe I am, I’m good at that) but there’s two sides to the story on this WFH shit. There’s a lot of hardworking people that are creating jobs and investing in our communities. Don’t forget that piece. Yes there’s the random $500k a year Google employee who sits on 3 meetings a day and skis the rest of the time, but I’d say your average WFH person isn’t that loaded and isn’t that free. And half the useless WFH people got laid off as they were getting paid to do nothing strategically by the FAANG companies to prevent them from going to competition or starting their own thing. Now that money isn’t basically free, that stuff really has stopped.

So am I part of the problem? I dunno, maybe. But the Real Estate agents I know seem to work a lot less than us WFH people and make a lot more money. So basically, don’t hate (most) WFH people, hate dirt pimps.

Thank you for attending my TED talk.

[thedude2340]

Note the size of my net [emoji3]

We use big dry flies too. Musky are some big mofos.





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[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Motherfucker isn't long arming that fish

[schuss]

Yeah, WFH has opened up sustainable jobs to a ton of people that were trapped in the service industry cycle or other such things in small communities. Plenty of those service jobs sucked and payed fuck all. Now people can build lives and have options without moving.

[Foggy_Goggles]

The only perspective you can have is your own...is guess.

Leavenworth Skier
a. Without context, "My" assumes you own the company which I don't think is the case
b. Good on you for gaining marketable job skills
c. Sounds like your job is more "hybrid" than full remote which I think creates some pretty different dynamics for real estate.
d. I'm not player hating, but remote work is absolutely part of the bid for real estate and contributes to breaking the old model that demand for real estate was largely a function off the incomes earned in the local area.

The laptopper were not being shamed by the work with your hands crowd. Its just about supply and demand for your services and the impact that has on your earning power. But yes, its complicated. Everyone wants to point the finger at everyone else as the problem, while those with power don't even really see a problem.

Back to the topic at hand https://www.skyhinews.com/news/grand...ovember-19-25/ Here is the latest sales. Same, same. Houses start at a mill, condos half a mill. Subdivions getting approved left and right but little impact to pricing.

Is the demand for mountain property so large that demand will never catch up? How do we move the wage scale such that we have a functional community?

[Foggy_Goggles]

I'll keep you updated on this https://www.skyhinews.com/news/u-s-f...land-exchange/

[goldenboy]

Is the demand for mountain property so large that demand will never catch up? How do we move the wage scale such that we have a functional community?

I assume your second "demand" was supposed to say supply? I can only speak to my local area, Crested Butte and Gunnison, but no, supply won't catch up. The regulatory burdens here are too high of a hurdle and growth and density is fought every step of the way. On top of that the profits aren't there- the profits are in the high end luxury market. It's not like Lennar, Pulte, or D R Horton is going to come into this market and build 1,000 homes, which would actually change the game. It would be absolutely fascinating to watch some sort of mega wealthy social activist do that, just to watch rents and prices crater.

Going back to the product that is being built- 20/25 years ago one of the most successful builder/developers here would build duplexes in town. People loved them, he maximized the space by really knowing all the intricate rules of building in Crested Butte and they were nicely finished in a way that people envisioned "Crested Butte". Even today, when one of those are listed, dirt pimps like me might say "Jimmy Faust designed" or something like that. They weren't exactly cheap then or now, but still- it was 2 homes with a shared wall that was in the ballpark for someone making good but not obscene money. His last spec was a single family home that sold for over $5M. That's where the market went and what he's been doing lately. Not sure how that could ever go back.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Yeah, supply. That's my take also.

Can somebody explain how the "dirt pimps" are responsible for for the lack of affordability.

And for the Tract Home Development in the Mountains concept, check Smith Creek Crossing.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

[schuss]

You cannot have a "functional community" and full open market. Nor does the "spoils" system of Aspen etc. where you get a winning lottery ticket when they build more housing (never to be evicted) necessarily lead to more affordable supply. Some degree of state or municipality owned housing for "necessary" roles is likely part of it, but is difficult from multiple perspectives.
1. Capital outlay - no municipality is going to get happy citizens from raising taxes to bring in lower wage folks.
2. Current state of government opinion - all the people yelling "socialists should be hung" won't take to this, even if it would benefit them.
3. Vulnerability to leadership fuckery - we are where we are in many places due to lack of foresight or compromised interests at municipal and state leadership levels. This is still susceptible to those forces.

I think the cleanest would probably be starting with designated housing units for teachers, fire, police and other roles that are necessary but difficult from a wage perspective in expensive communities (in specific ratios so police aren't incentivized to target non-police in such housing to get them out of the community to open a space for a police officer, as they are the only group with that level of power). That might open the door to better or more productive discussions.

[Toadman]

When you look at where land prices are at in Mountain Town, USA it makes sense to maximize the value of what you build on said piece of dirt. Here in Oregon they have a mandate to build as much housing as possible. They have rezoned lots of land in and around Bend to accommodate as much housing as possible. So, they build, build, build. With no regard for infrastructure. Or at the very least, they pay it lip service.

[neckdeep]

Can somebody explain how the "dirt pimps" are responsible for for the lack of affordability.

Who the fuck do you think is doing the marketing? Mountain towns have small armies of promoters with national reach and, buddy, if you think they are advertising to the working class, you are really naive. Dirt pimps spend a lot of effort bombarding wealthy folks with the message that mountain towns are awesome investments that are always appreciating. Thats what they do. The dirt pimp dream is to turn their town into an inverted pyramid of wealth.

C'mon man. Dirt pimps do not aspire to sell affordable housing. It's all "line go up" and they have the hype machine to push it up.

When your mountain town gets a Sotheby's office, it is truly fucked.

[TAFKALVS]

The only perspective you can have is your own...is guess.

Leavenworth Skier
a. Without context, "My" assumes you own the company which I don't think is the case
b. Good on you for gaining marketable job skills
c. Sounds like your job is more "hybrid" than full remote which I think creates some pretty different dynamics for real estate.
d. I'm not player hating, but remote work is absolutely part of the bid for real estate and contributes to breaking the old model that demand for real estate was largely a function off the incomes earned in the local area.

The laptopper were not being shamed by the work with your hands crowd. Its just about supply and demand for your services and the impact that has on your earning power. But yes, its complicated. Everyone wants to point the finger at everyone else as the problem, while those with power don't even really see a problem.

A. Started as an employee, was brought on as a partner with meaningful ownership/equity after one year. So it is “my” company.
B. I had marketable job skills before in the business realm but adding additional coding and technology skills gave me the opportunity to join this company and contribute in ways I couldn’t before.
C. We were remote, now we’re hybrid. Ironically I have a few employees in Seattle and California that are fully remote unless they come to the office in Idaho. I go to the office daily. I hate WFH.
D. And thank god that the old model is breaking down where people aren’t underpaid serfs working for the ski resort and the FS and the hospital for crap wages and zero upward mobility. All I’m trying to say, is yes there was a crazy influx of WFHers and yes it did distort the market (although retiree boomers with pensions and California house equity seemed to be the bigger issue in my area) but don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. There are positives too.

[frorider]

Thx tafkalvs for taking the time to write those posts. I have a friend here in Tahoe that has accomplished something similar to you on a smaller scale. I’ve been here 20+ yrs and after seeing so many friends struggle with the ups and downs of construction industry or the grind and low pay of the traditional service industry I do see positives from having a diversified job base.

And where do you draw the line? If a local starts up a small tech services company that includes WFH employees but often provides affordable online services for businesses within a 100 mile radius, is that much different than my neighbors who own or work at local painting or plumbing companies?

Sometimes a resort industry dominated town can feel like a coal mining town in W Virginia.