Real Estate Crash thread

[Red7]

San Francisco Bay Area House Prices Plunge 30% from Crazy Peak: Housing Bust 2 | Wolf Street

When people's primary residencies start dropping, I wonder how long before they start considering selling their vacation homes that they are less likely to work remotely from? I've noticed a lot more spec builders putting half-finished homes on Zillow asking for what they've got in it if you pay them to finish the home.

[liv2ski]

Getting a ride home this morning, my Uber driver thought we were looking at as much as a 50% decrease in values from the top 12 months ago. He must be reading some pessimistic stuff as I don't see the impetus to make that happen unless a fuck ton of people in CA loose their jobs.

[ötzi]

I knew the '08 crash was coming when a taxi driver in Dublin started telling me what a sweet deal he had going with Florida condos, so maybe your Uber driver knows something.

[Ted Striker]

In a similar vein, I knew the 08 crash was coming when a local developer asked me to participate in his Ponzi scheme.

[AdironRider]

I always found the Berry guy's story ridiculous in that he was at the strip club and realized these hookers cant afford houses so lets short the market. You might have been right but that was definitely not the reason, but probably got him out of a jam in his marriage.

[BmillsSkier]

In a similar vein, I knew the 08 crash was coming when a local developer asked me to participate in his Ponzi scheme.

This.

My inbox is getting more and more emails from developers looking for introductions to other private equity sources for their projects.

That tells me they've already burned through/burnt their existing PE.

[Core Shot]

The stupid pricing was driven by cheap money and work from home.
That ship has sailed.

I expect 20 to 30% corrections in vacation markets. Maybe more. Depending on desirability.

Otoh. If you can hold your second home at sub four percent interest and still afford it why would you sell?

[liv2ski]

Exactly, remember, people need to really qualify for loans these days, so unless there is a long job loss, people can afford what they bought.

[4matic]

Shit box prices in my old East Bay Area hood are still higher than when I sold in 2021.

[climberevan]

Yeah, my sis just bought a place in Berkeley after a long search. Prices haven't really gone down, but the insane bidding wars have abated. 6.5% mortgage, though: ouch!

[liv2ski]

6.5% mortgage, though: ouch!

Pfft, our first home loan was at 13.50% in 1985. Thank Dog we only financed $180k.

[lowsparkco]

We still haven’t found the bottom. Microsoft announced they’re cutting 10,000 jobs. Central Oregon real estate is down 19% from peak market.

[amelieflynn]

I wouldn't be able to cover my expenses for renting an apartment in Mallorca and paying a mortgage (according to Yes! Mallorca Property Prices report).

[pepperdawg]

Still getting almost weekly unsolicited txts/letters from investors wanting to pay "cash today" for my rental properties.

[AdironRider]

Sharks smell blood in the water.

My boat dealer is clearly getting desperate on model year 23 boats after giving everyone with a fresh heloc a ticket to the water over the past couple years. 30% off MSRP on a new Malibu is the latest offer and that was the opening salvo. I'm holding out to July and see how desperate they get.

[Mazderati]

A home listed fourth quarter last year popped up in my feed yesterday. Reason? Price increase.

[liv2ski]

Ballsy

[MCS5280]

A home listed fourth quarter last year popped up in my feed yesterday. Reason? Price increase.

I know what I got no lowballers

[lowsparkco]

I know what I got no lowballers

Always an interesting predicament. My guess is that broker prices low promising multiple offers, which could have been sound advice this time last year. Some guys and gals only do a deal or two a year and work from home, they can be slow to adjust strategies. I tend to call the listing agent and pick their brains a little if I have a client interested in one of these. Who knows they could have replaced the HVAC or roof.

[summit]

No way peak vacation areas with huge local housing crunches like Aspen, Tahoe, Summit, Vail are going to correct 20-30%... at least not in the less than 1-1.5 million dollar properties. It didn't after 2008 either. I doubt even 10%. It corrects 20% and I'd buy a second property as a rental.

[altasnob]

What place in the US is (or is going) to correct 20-30%? Even places like Seattle and San Francisco are just seeing minor price corrections, not even close to pre-pandemic prices. Even with all the local tech layoffs and people supposedly fleeing the city.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SEXRNSA

[Mustonen]

I think some other shit is gonna have to break grievously for prices to “correct” beyond, say, 10%.

But I’m a shit prognosticator.

[Danno]

I hope y'all preaching massive price corrections are correct, because that's how I can get back in. But I don't see it coming, at least not in the really good places. But the market has softened for sure, so maybe sometime soon I can buy. But I'm also fine renting right now.

[RootSkier]

Danno, I thought you recently finished a big remodel? You sold that place?

[Danno]

Danno, I thought you recently finished a big remodel? You sold that place?

the remodel was 6 years ago.

the separation and sale of the house was 18 months ago.

the move out of Boulder was 6 months ago.

the final divorce decree is (hopefully) next week.