Real Estate Crash thread

**liv2ski** · 10-20-2022, 01:06 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

$200k mark down after one month. Great location too. SF price dropping fast

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5...ource=txtshare

Not quite San Fran, but 1.50 hours to the Wood is a bonus and $250 sq ft is a fuckin steal in my simple mind.

**Conundrum** · 10-20-2022, 01:58 PM

$250/ft seems to be pretty damn good most places. What's wrong with that house?

**californiagrown** · 10-20-2022, 02:00 PM

Originally Posted by Conundrum

$250/ft seems to be pretty damn good most places. What's wrong with that house?

It gets Arizona hot there.

**ColMan** · 10-20-2022, 02:01 PM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

Not quite San Fran, but 1.50 hours to the Wood is a bonus and $250 sq ft is a fuckin steal in my simple mind.

Fresno pricing but in a much better location. Still have to deal with ridiculous CA taxes though.

**4matic** · 10-20-2022, 02:19 PM

Originally Posted by californiagrown

It gets Arizona hot there.

It does. Sun angle not quite as intense though.

**liv2ski** · 10-20-2022, 04:15 PM

Originally Posted by ColMan

Still have to deal with ridiculous CA taxes though.

The thing is CA taxes are not burdensome once you have owed a home there forever thanks to prop 13. My property taxes are .0013 X value for the year. You're never going to get that in CO or likely any other state. Disregarding that, per the below chart the total tax burden is really no big deal in my mind:
https://wallethub.com/edu/states-wit...x-burden/20494

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**Brock Landers** · 10-20-2022, 10:06 PM

Is there a Calc on that chart? Cali income tax varies obviously into double digits. Sales tax high single digits.

Taxes in California are high. Don’t mean to be controversial but they are.

**J. Barron DeJong** · 10-20-2022, 10:14 PM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Is there a Calc on that chart? Cali income tax varies obviously into double digits. Sales tax high single digits.

Taxes in California are high. Don’t mean to be controversial but they are.

California taxes are about average for people of average income/wealth. It’s the high taxes on high earners where it stands apart.

https://itep.org/whopays-map/

**4matic** · 10-21-2022, 10:59 AM

Sales going to plumb the 08 lows next year.

https://mobile.twitter.com/EPBResear...86205437411328

**rideit** · 10-21-2022, 11:36 AM

Here that just means the wealthy will buy an expensive property, and also the one next to it for privacy. And I'm not joking.

**ötzi** · 10-21-2022, 12:42 PM

No idea how accurate this is but Global Real Estate Bubble Risks: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth...ble-index.html

**Kevo** · 10-21-2022, 12:49 PM

As far as I am aware, almost every developed country in the world except the US has adjustable rate mortgages as default and fixed rate mortgages (in the way that Americans use that term) are exceptionally rare outside the US.

Canada, UK, Australia, eurozone countries, etc are all adjustable rate mortgages that will adjust to new monthly payment amounts as central bakes raise rates.

Worth noting that what Canada calls a fixed rate mortgage is not a fixed rate mortgage by US definitions.

**Stuntmonkey** · 10-21-2022, 12:52 PM

Originally Posted by Kevo

Worth noting that what Canada calls a fixed rate mortgage is not a fixed rate mortgage by US definitions.

5 year terms and then you refinance. So yeah, unlike your 30 year slogs but still fixed for a good portion.

A big problem here is the qualifying criteria for a mortgage is essentially a very large, very mobile goalpost.

**4matic** · 10-21-2022, 12:56 PM

Good news. STR hosts switching to LTR. Too late and too greedy:

Airbnb hosts say bookings ‘fell off a cliff’ amid influx of new vacation rentals and rising prices
'We went from 80% [occupancy] to zero,' one host says in a common refrain among property owners who say they saw a sudden decline in the summer months
Read in MarketWatch: https://apple.news/AdrYD7GfHS-O23tniF6j7fQ

**yeahman** · 10-21-2022, 01:19 PM

^^Excellent news.

**XXX-er** · 10-21-2022, 01:27 PM

Originally Posted by Kevo

As far as I am aware, almost every developed country in the world except the US has adjustable rate mortgages as default and fixed rate mortgages (in the way that Americans use that term) are exceptionally rare outside the US.

Canada, UK, Australia, eurozone countries, etc are all adjustable rate mortgages that will adjust to new monthly payment amounts as central bakes raise rates.

Worth noting that what Canada calls a fixed rate mortgage is not a fixed rate mortgage by US definitions.

You can get a fixed rate but the % charged is higher depending on how long of a fixed rate you choose and the payments are amortised over 25 years or whatever you chose, my last mortgage was amortised over 30 yrs so I didnt have to get a job while waiting for mom to die

Variable rate mortgages have been very popular cuz they were cheaper when rates are low but now you thro in rising rates/ inflation/ yada/ yada some people may now might have mortgage payments they can't afford when they have to remortgage

but nobody could have foreseen this

**liv2ski** · 10-21-2022, 01:51 PM

Originally Posted by Kevo

As far as I am aware, almost every developed country in the world except the US has adjustable rate mortgages as default and fixed rate mortgages (in the way that Americans use that term) are exceptionally rare outside the US.

Canada, UK, Australia, eurozone countries, etc are all adjustable rate mortgages that will adjust to new monthly payment amounts as central bakes raise rates.

Worth noting that what Canada calls a fixed rate mortgage is not a fixed rate mortgage by US definitions.

I was reading the Guardian and the article was shitting its pants over Aussie real estate, due to the exposure to adjustable rate mortgages.

**liv2ski** · 10-28-2022, 12:58 PM

I guess rates over 6% will kill business? Who knew?

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**Whiteroom_Guardian** · 10-28-2022, 01:36 PM

We are seeing STR being advertised as "medium term" and some as long term in the MLS now. Bozeman only so far. I have clients with STR properties in Big Sky and wondering if they are already seeing decrease in their advanced bookings yet.

**liv2ski** · 10-28-2022, 04:18 PM

I sure hope so, as price increases this year of 50% in Mammoth from last year are dumb and annoying.

**yeahman** · 10-28-2022, 04:25 PM

Stay in a hotel. Fuck STR.

**PNWbrit** · 10-28-2022, 05:11 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Good news. STR hosts switching to LTR. Too late and too greedy:

Airbnb hosts say bookings ‘fell off a cliff’ amid influx of new vacation rentals and rising prices
'We went from 80% [occupancy] to zero,' one host says in a common refrain among property owners who say they saw a sudden decline in the summer months
Read in MarketWatch: https://apple.news/AdrYD7GfHS-O23tniF6j7fQ

Huh.

I had the most rentals I've ever had this summer.

Ski season bookings coming in strong too.

**Name Redacted** · 10-28-2022, 06:30 PM

Originally Posted by PNWbrit

Huh.

I had the most rentals I've ever had this summer.

Ski season bookings coming in strong too.

Same here.

Crazy how expensive it is to go on vacation to other ski towns now, glad we have options here because we might not get to take a trip elsewhere this season.