Real Estate Crash thread

[Core Shot]

Why raise rents based on that? Are your properties financed with ARM's?

Seems like commercial loans are always some sort of hybrid ARM (5/1) so maybe his rate is adjusting annually now.

Exactly. Quarterly butt Fuck over. Latest reset was from just under 4 to 5.5%.

The trickle down will be interesting.
Yeah, the residential market needs to cool off.
But commercial and residential ARM are getting boofed.
The only fixed commercial is SBA loans. Have those as well. But that’s only half the debt.

[liv2ski]

Huh? Looking at that chart I see lower rates = advancing stock market.

[JaytaeMoney]

The only fixed commercial is SBA loans.

Not true, you can get a 5-10+ year fixed rate non-SBA commercial loan from pretty much any bank and it sounds like you're a commercial landlord so you probably wouldn't qualify for SBA financing anyway (SBA real estate loans are for properties with at least 51% of the square footage being owner-occupied). Sounds like your banker put you into an adjustable rate loan right out of the chute or you didn't refi into a new fixed rate term when your loan converted to adjustable.

[Kevo]

Huh? Looking at that chart I see lower rates = advancing stock market.

I think the idea is that the stock market rose in the 90s and 2000s while the federal reserve was raising rates.

[J. Barron DeJong]

I think the idea is that the stock market rose in the 90s and 2000s while the federal reserve was raising rates.

Right. It would be more clear if the S&P was shown on a log scale so the most recent years didn’t swamp the earlier ones. Also, even though rates weren’t rising through the early/mid 2010’s, the Fed was tightening in other ways.

Basically, unless the Fed is intentionally try to create a recession to crush out of control inflation (early 80’s) the reason they’re raising rates is because the economy is strong/at full employment, and if the economy is strong then companies are profitable and the stock market can keep going up.

There’s always the chance the Fed is too aggressive with rate hikes and causes slower growth or a recession, but it’s not what they’re intentionally trying to do right now.

[rideit]

Exactly. Quarterly butt Fuck over. Latest reset was from just under 4 to 5.5%.

The trickle down will be interesting.
Yeah, the residential market needs to cool off.
But commercial and residential ARM are getting boofed.
The only fixed commercial is SBA loans. Have those as well. But that’s only half the debt.

Has it ever gone down? (For your properties)

[liv2ski]

Has it ever gone down? (For your properties)

I remember back around 2006 doing 3/1 ARMs that started at about 5.50% and thinking they would adjust to the 7% range when in fact because of the housing meltdown they adjusted down to 3.50%. So yes, the rates can go down.

[JaytaeMoney]

I remember back around 2006 doing 3/1 ARMs that started at about 5.50% and thinking they would adjust to the 7% range when in fact because of the housing meltdown they adjusted down to 3.50%. So yes, the rates can go down.

For a much more recent example, the Fed did two emergency rate cuts at the beginning of the pandemic. In March 2020, prime went from 4.75 to 3.25 in less than two weeks.

[Core Shot]

Yeah mine did go down. And yes they used to be fixed. In hindsight I should have worked on a fixed refi. But who expected trillions of dollars to be created and rates to rise so fast. Oh well.

[summit]

When will the rate hikes crush the S&P?

S&P already mostly priced in the rate hikes that fed communicated a plan for size and timeframe.

[fastfred]

I remember back around 2006 doing 3/1 ARMs that started at about 5.50% and thinking they would adjust to the 7% range when in fact because of the housing meltdown they adjusted down to 3.50%. So yes, the rates can go down.

that was me 5 yr arm liar loan total mess looking back I'm like what the fuck were they thinking I couldn't even tie my shoes in my late 20's
but everything was up up up don't worry your house will be worth double is what the realtors and mort people kept saying as I signed up
couldn't refi cause all of the sudden I didn't look good on paper in 07 and 08 loan was getting ready to reset I was tweaking out
joke was on me cause my interest rate dropped instead of going up
rest is history I do consider myself dumb lucky but who the fuck knew my only goal on a thrusday was getting the day done and going to happy hour and getting plastered

[Name Redacted]

So our worst fears and suspicions have been confirmed in this hard hitting piece by the bastion of journalism, the Westword. Apparently, rich old people are inhabiting our state like moths to a flame.

*Warning:CO specific article*:
https://www.westword.com/news/why-pe...xT1GJt49JAsOEE

[muted reborn]

Not true, you can get a 5-10+ year fixed rate non-SBA commercial loan from pretty much any bank and it sounds like you're a commercial landlord so you probably wouldn't qualify for SBA financing anyway (SBA real estate loans are for properties with at least 51% of the square footage being owner-occupied). Sounds like your banker put you into an adjustable rate loan right out of the chute or you didn't refi into a new fixed rate term when your loan converted to adjustable.

Yes, I have a 15 year fixed commercial but I was told it was unusual. Required a bigger downpayment. CS, I don't wish you going broke at all - but i do chuckle how every post of yours here is flat out wrong or partially wrong!

[sirbumpsalot]

So our worst fears and suspicions have been confirmed in this hard hitting piece by the bastion of journalism, the Westword. Apparently, rich old people are inhabiting our state like moths to a flame.

*Warning:CO specific article*:
https://www.westword.com/news/why-pe...xT1GJt49JAsOEE

I thought the TGR collective determined $200,000 a year income is MIDDLE CLASS, not RICH like the author suggests....especially in CO.

[liv2ski]

When I was a young man starting out 40 some years ago, my first legit job paid about $22k a year and a nice home could be bought for $90ish and a new VW Rabbit cost me $7k. Both the property and the car sell for about 5 times more now, so a very middle class wage should be about $110k IMO. $200k is not rich, but more comfortable for sure, as in maybe the spouse could stay home with the kids if so desired.
Average price in my hood is a little over $3M now, so with 25% down you still need to make about $500k gross a year to get a home loan. That is well off, but not rich in CA.

[Name Redacted]

When I was a young man starting out 40 some years ago, my first legit job paid about $22k a year and a nice home could be bought for $90ish and a new VW Rabbit cost me $7k. Both the property and the car sell for about 5 times more now, so a very middle class wage should be about $110k IMO. $200k is not rich, but more comfortable for sure, as in maybe the spouse could stay home with the kids if so desired.
Average price in my hood is a little over $3M now, so with 25% down you still need to make about $500k gross a year to get a home loan. That is well off, but not rich in CA.

$100k in 1980= $300k in 2022 ; $22k=$70k. $200k isn't bad. You could probably buy a 2br condo on that salary if the HOA is reasonable.

With all the new STR fees and regulations getting passed directly down to the consumer, the middle class can't even vacation here anymore.

I've never seen as many Range Rovers in this town as I have in the last year. I think these fucks pay extra for the turn signal delete.

[sirbumpsalot]

When I was a young man starting out 40 some years ago, my first legit job paid about $22k a year and a nice home could be bought for $90ish and a new VW Rabbit cost me $7k. Both the property and the car sell for about 5 times more now, so a very middle class wage should be about $110k IMO. $200k is not rich, but more comfortable for sure, as in maybe the spouse could stay home with the kids if so desired.
Average price in my hood is a little over $3M now, so with 25% down you still need to make about $500k gross a year to get a home loan. That is well off, but not rich in CA.

Its all relative....if Lebron James moves next door to Bill Gates or Oprah...he feels POOR...but you wouldn't not call him rich would you?

[fastfred]

With all the new STR fees and regulations getting passed directly down to the consumer, the middle class can't even vacation here anymore.

I've never seen as many Range Rovers in this town as I have in the last year. I think these fucks pay extra for the turn signal delete.

the fees are nothing I'm sick of people crying about having to pay a higher fee for their rental fuck I pay out the asshole in fees and liceneses insurance and taxes come on do the quick math adds maybe 20 bucks a nite to a rental people pay huge cleaning fees to stay in a the place and don't blink

but yeah I'm so fucking excited to be part of and help usher in this new era of complete fucked mountain town living I love it and I'm laughing my ass off if I hear another person complain about how they can't find cheap easy housing that is right next to the lift and costs nothing I'm gonna break down and cry if another wfh fuck face with a smirk of a grin tells me how it is I'm gonna puke and the money I'm additcted to it I love it the people with money can't stop moving here and spending it

and on a positive note the article written by a top notch writer sums shit up well

https://www.5280.com/2022/09/the-hig...ountry-living/

everyone mentioned or quoted is a first class clown to the 100th degree some of them more than others most of them can't get out of their own way trying to grab money off the money tree

[byates1]

but yeah I'm so fucking excited to be part of and help usher in this new era of complete fucked mountain town living I love it and I'm laughing my ass off if I hear another person complain about how they can't find cheap easy housing that is right next to the lift and costs nothing I'm gonna break down and cry if another wfh fuck face with a smirk of a grin tells me how it is I'm gonna puke and the money I'm additcted to it I love it the people with money can't stop moving here and spending it

you are a gem fred. hilarious!

[liv2ski]

Its all relative....if Lebron James moves next door to Bill Gates or Oprah...he feels POOR...but you wouldn't not call him rich would you?

Must suck to be such a bitter surebitchesalot. Vibes dood.

[sirbumpsalot]

Must suck to be such a bitter surebitchesalot. Vibes dood.

I am not the one who came here whining about being poor on a $200,000 wage and a $3M house blocks from the ocean. Keep that in mind.

I run with the rich and will admit it.

[liv2ski]

I am not the one who came here whining about being poor on a $200,000 wage and a $3M house blocks from the ocean. Keep that in mind.

I run with the rich and will admit it.

Nothing I said was me whining. Just stating $200k a year is no biggy in SoCal. You're the whining cunt that stalks me. GFYS

[Brock Landers]

Right. It would be more clear if the S&P was shown on a log scale so the most recent years didn’t swamp the earlier ones. Also, even though rates weren’t rising through the early/mid 2010’s, the Fed was tightening in other ways.

Basically, unless the Fed is intentionally try to create a recession to crush out of control inflation (early 80’s) the reason they’re raising rates is because the economy is strong/at full employment, and if the economy is strong then companies are profitable and the stock market can keep going up.

There’s always the chance the Fed is too aggressive with rate hikes and causes slower growth or a recession, but it’s not what they’re intentionally trying to do right now.

Yeah buying trillions of $ in treasuries and mortgages, while keeping fed funds pinned at 0 in the early/mid 2010s was def tightening.

Fed has 2 objectives. Employment and inflation. Right now only one is a (gigantic) problem. This will end up in a recession which probably will impact employment. But right now employment is very tight and even if that wanes because fed pushes the brakes too hard, I think they’re comfortable with that for now.

Stocks have already got hit and will likely get hit more.

Housing…I don’t see how house prices sink like a stone. With rates up rents are up too. People aren’t buy/sell there’s no liquidity. Even if there’s a moderate recession rates go down there are plenty of people still making money to buy. Especially when the alternatives are rentals.

[Core Shot]

There’s a correction coming.

Not sure it’s a crash. At least ten percent. Twenty in some markets.
The bidding over asking (which was high listing lately) is going away.

DOM is going up. Inventory isn’t back. Yet. It will be.

[Stu Gotz]

There’s a correction coming.

Not sure it’s a crash. At least ten percent. Twenty in some markets.
The bidding over asking (which was high listing lately) is going away.

DOM is going up. Inventory isn’t back. Yet. It will be.

Certainly an interesting time. I’m not sure many professional real estate investors/bankers have been operating in an environment like this.

I think most homeowners are probably ok with low fixed rate mortgages. If you’ve got to move, however, you’re SOL.