Real Estate Crash thread

[Joey Joe Joe Junior Shabadoo]

Pretty interesting interview from last year on this very thing. Below is small excerpt,

Paved Paradise

GROSS: Let me stop you there. You're saying that creating more parking creates more traffic because if there's more parking, you're more likely to drive.

GRABAR: Yeah. It's counterintuitive. But at the beginning - right? - in the 1950s and '60s, when cities were sort of swamped by traffic, they figured, OK, we have to build parking because if we don't build parking, people will continue to circle the block looking for parking, and we'll be stuck with this terrible traffic problem. So they built a ton of parking. But what we have learned since is that, in fact, if you require every single land use to be - to come with a certain number of parking spots and, in some cases, to be half parking by surface area, you are creating a lot of incentives for people to drive.

Not only are you requiring renters and homeowners to pay for that parking in the lease or in the sales price when they purchase or rent a new unit. Sometimes that can amount to 15 or 20% of the total cost of the unit - just the parking, right? So if you don't drive, that's a pretty big down payment you're making on a car right there. But the other part of it is that the more parking you provide, the harder it becomes to walk, bike or use transit because you create a low-density environment that's just not particularly pleasant to walk in. And it can be that simple that, you know, when you find yourself in an environment where you're surrounded by parking lots, it becomes difficult to get around any other way than in a car.

GROSS: Is there another point you wanted to make before I interrupted you?

GRABAR: The other thing I think is behind this big reform movement is housing, right? So the United States has a serious housing affordability problem right now, and some studies estimate that we are millions of units short in providing adequate housing. And the cities that have begun to reform these laws requiring parking have realized that parking - required parking - is a major impediment to achieving housing affordability. And that's not just because it costs so much to build and impedes the development of affordable housing projects, but it's also because it changes the types of projects that get built.

I mean, if you are under obligation to provide two parking spaces per unit, which is the requirement in many places, you are going to find it difficult to work with small infill lots. You're going to find it impossible to build some of these older forms we were talking about, like brownstones, triple-deckers, three-flats, etc. And this is a huge impediment to building the kind of housing that many communities have decided that they need.

And so if you zoom out a little bit, one of the consequences of free parking, one of the externalities we've been talking about, is that if you don't regulate street parking and you create these shortages, people circling around the block and so forth, you create an environment in which there's more and more opposition to new housing and in which new housing is required to come with increasing quantities of parking to satiate parking-hungry neighbors who are angry about the public parking supply.

And that dynamic is really powerful. If you go to a community meeting in any American town where a new residential project is being discussed, the shortage of parking is always invoked as a reason to oppose. And so our inability to manage parking has produced a situation in which parking functions as a cudgel that can be wielded to keep new neighbors out of old neighborhoods.

[dan_pdx]

Yep, the impact on housing is well understood (at least, among wonks and academics), but getting in the car is seductive because humans are lazy animals that like comfort. AAA says it costs $12k/year to own and operate a car, so my wife and I are up something like $150k over the course of our marriage since we share a single car

[dan_pdx]

I did buy a dentist bike last year, but if AAA's figures are correct, I could buy two or three a year. Have to see how that math flies with Mrs PDX

[dunfree]

This idea of not providing parking is such bullshit and only makes sense to the people who do not have to deal with the issues that creates.

Like it or not people need to get around and passing the buck to the neighbors, or the city as a whole is not the solution.

there is no such thing as free parking.

one thing though, if it hasn’t been done, is prohibit buildings with required parking minimums from charging residents for it.

before the great investor subsidy of trips that was Uber, Zipcar made it clear owning a car wasn’t cheap, but it didn’t take many trips a month to pencil out.

[dan_pdx]

Or require permits for on-street parking and charge more if you live in a building with no parking. But there's always a million loopholes with stuff like that. The most effective way is Euro-style streets where the cars can't go much faster than the bikes. Then you're like "I have to park the damn thing and it's no faster than biking" and cars become less appealing. As long as there's somewhere to park where you live / where you're going and it keeps you warm in the winter and cool in the summer people are going to drive their cars. TBC, there are places where cars are really needed, I just don't think that a 3-mile commute from one part of town to another is one of those places.

[rideit]

This is not a defense, but an observation. In many, many parts of the USA, public transportation is shit, and the urban land values are simply too expensive to change that. In addition, in many (most?) parts of the U.S., the weather is simply too shitty (hot, cold, rain, snow, wind, etc) to make the prospect of attempting to do your errands (which are usually all over the damn place, even in dense urban areas) by any other method that an air conditioned or heated car anything more than laughable for most people.
Think you are going to get your ice cream home intact if you tried to walk, ride, take a bus, etc, in almost any U.S. city in the summer?
Faageddaboudit.
Or ride your bike to the Whole Grocer (3-5 miles away) anywhere north of, say, Texas, in January?
Or schlep all of the shit you need for Tucker’s hockey tournament (3 hours away) by bus?
Ain’t happening.
Not to mention, paranoia is built into the U.S. mentality (whether totally justified or not). Your own vehicle is perceived as a sanctuary from potentially violent or criminal intrusion. As such, it’s almost sovereign. You think Bubba and Darlene are gonna give up their 2cnd amendment rights in order to make parking less of an issue?
No fucking way.
Just a couple of rambling thoughts.

[shroom]

The median annual wage for urban and regional planners was $81,800 in May 2023.

[Ski220]

(also helps they're not parking in front of my house, hahaha)

Classic

Or require permits for on-street parking and charge more if you live in a building with no parking. But there's always a million loopholes with stuff like that. The most effective way is Euro-style streets where the cars can't go much faster than the bikes. Then you're like "I have to park the damn thing and it's no faster than biking" and cars become less appealing. As long as there's somewhere to park where you live / where you're going and it keeps you warm in the winter and cool in the summer people are going to drive their cars. TBC, there are places where cars are really needed, I just don't think that a 3-mile commute from one part of town to another is one of those places.

I think 3 miles is a little far of an ask.
But I'd certainly support charging for parking permits in certain situations.

This is not a defense, but an observation. In many, many parts of the USA, public transportation is shit, and the urban land values are simply too expensive to change that. In addition, in many (most?) parts of the U.S., the weather is simply too shitty (hot, cold, rain, snow, wind, etc) to make the prospect of attempting to do your errands (which are usually all over the damn place, even in dense urban areas) by any other method that an air conditioned or heated car anything more than laughable for most people.
Think you are going to get your ice cream home intact if you tried to walk, ride, take a bus, etc, in almost any U.S. city in the summer?
Faageddaboudit.
Or ride your bike to the Whole Grocer (3-5 miles away)
.

Yeah, the sprawl of (most) American of many cities is not conducive to using anything other
then private transportation.
The replacement of small local retailers by bigger box stores necessitates longer travels.

I live a block and a half from a grocery store. It's one of the reasons I like living where I do.
Most of my neighbors that live on my street drive there. Even the couple that live across the
street from the shopping center. I've seen them shop. They have a freezer in their basement.

But I grew up downtown walking everywhere; school, library, etc.

[4matic]

Rental vacancy rate approaching 10y high with 450k of new inventory coming online in 2025.

[dan_pdx]

Rental vacancy rate approaching 10y high with 450k of new inventory coming online in 2025.

Where?

[rideit]

Where?

Olathe, KS, Limon, Co…

[4matic]

Where?

Nationwide rate. Highest by area:

https://x.com/VladTheInflator/status...01785484620198

[liv2ski]

San Diego 5%+ pffft. I have people line up when one of our places opens up, but I am never priced at a market top either.
Don't buy rentals if you need market high rents to get by.

[singlesline]

Just because you don’t have legal parking minimums doesn’t mean people won’t still build it.

Developers aren’t going to build unsalable units. Multifamilies in car dependent areas will still get parking lots. Higher end properties will include more than minimum parking because the wealthier people who buy them will own cars even if they live somewhere a family doesn’t need multiple cars.

And a lot of cities are functioning just fine with a large share of properties below the parking minimums because they were built 100 yards ago before it was a thing. I’ve lived in a number of buildings that you absolutely could not build today. They were in dense thriving neighborhoods…sure street parking was always a bitch, but you didn’t have to own a car and you could always pay a monthly fee for a permit spot nearby.

Parking won’t disappear, but why force people to build it if there are plenty of buyers out there who don’t want it?

[J. Barron DeJong]

Just because you don’t have legal parking minimums doesn’t mean people won’t still build it.

This.

It seems to be common on the NIMBY side of housing arguments (not on TRG specifically, but generally) that they think that eliminating things like parking minimums, or allowing higher density means everyone is going to be forced to live in high rises and take public transportation, when the argument is just that builders should be allowed to build that type of housing if there’s a market for it.

[AdironRider]

That is very wishful thinking in thinking.

I get the nimby slight, but parking is a legit problem that will most certainly get passed onto the community in almost all cases.

[dan_pdx]

That is very wishful thinking in thinking.

I get the nimby slight, but parking is a legit problem that will most certainly get passed onto the community in almost all cases.

I agree, but affordable housing with a parking problem is better than unaffordable housing with parking included, right?

[rideit]

Parking won’t disappear, but why force people to build it if there are plenty of buyers out there who don’t want it?

Because people’s needs and desires change. Let’s say you have a kid that you can’t schlep around anymore, or have to take a job not served by public transport, or take up a sport or hobby that makes not having a vehicle impractical.
I don’t think you could really control that.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Because people’s needs and desires change. Let’s say you have a kid that you can’t schlep around anymore, or have to take a job not served by public transport, or take up a sport or hobby that makes not having a vehicle impractical.
I don’t think you could really control that.

You could move?

[4matic]

Total inventory is now the highest since 2019 and triple what it was in 2022. Mortgage rates are still at 20 year highs.

[Conundrum]

You could move?

To all the other affordable housing with off street parking?

[J. Barron DeJong]

To all the other affordable housing with off street parking?

To somewhere that meets your parking needs?

The argument is that we’re going to make everyone pay for things they have no use for currently, just in case they need it in the future?

Should we we make everyone buy full size SUVs just in case they’ll need the space later?

[Conundrum]

No idea. Just being a smartass sort of. I do catch some flack when I ask why people don’t move to the midwest when they can’t afford to live in affluent ski towns. Cue typical critiques-lifestyle, jobs, family lineage, essential workers, etc.

I agree though. I fall into the don’t like your living situation and can’t change it move camp.

[singlesline]

To be fair, people love to dump a bunch of money on “just in case”.

You need to pay how many tens of thousands over time to buy a house with a spare guest room that only gets used infrequently (and even less often by someone who couldn’t sleep on a couch/blow up mattress in some other room)?

How much extra gas money do you spend driving alive a full size truck just in case you need to buy a new washer/dryer and haul it home at a a moments notice? (Not to mention extra payments and insurance).

Could come up with a very long list. But that’s also one of the reasons I think it is ok. People who have even a small suspicion they will need parking in the future will buy with parking in mind (especially since spots can be rented out). So in markets where residents need cars…they are still going to build parking.

[4matic]

As of November 2024, housing inventory in Texas reached 115,319 active single-family and condo/townhome listings.

This represents a 24% increase compared to the same period in the previous year.

This surge in inventory is the highest recorded since at least 2017