Real Estate Crash thread

[NBABUCKS1]

What I'd like to know is who are all these chumps willing to pay such exorbitant rents?! KNOCK IT OFF, PEOPLE!!!

assuming tech/remote workers, trust fund or uber uber rich retirees.

[skaredshtles]

$3300/mo for an apt in Bozeman? Must be a pretty big place. Or perhaps just super-chi-chi?

[Cisco Kid]

this kind of help sums shit up
it seems like everyone feels like they should buy a house for a super low interest rate still have room for two nice cars and big vacations plus all the fun stuff in life and buying endless shit to make you happy

you can't have it all

I fucking sound like a god damn boomer whats wrong with me?
I did just eat 20mg of edibles because I need to check out

Drugs were working as they should allowing you to reach cosmic clarity. Back then, the average 2nd home was a cottage on a lake you could drive to. The CEO of Xerox had a bigger cottage on a different lake and maybe an apartment in Paris the wife wanted.

[MontuckyFried]

assuming tech/remote workers, trust fund or uber uber rich retirees.

You're probably right. Either way, all those douchebags seriously need to knock it off! They've done to Bozeman (and every other formerly semi-affordable mountain town) what rich Canadian and American expats have done to poorer communities around the world. Now you got quaint Mexican villages that have been invaded, once again, pricing the locals out. It's starting to get seriously annoying.

$3300/mo for an apt in Bozeman? Must be a pretty big place. Or perhaps just super-chi-chi?

They look like literally every other place in Bozeman built there in the last 15 years. Seems that place (and now everywhere in the American mountain West) has the same exact architect and designer. It's like our modern American version of Soviet bloc housing. Except hella expensive.

These lame ass developers come to every mountain town and be like Ctrl+C --> Ctrl+V

[dan_pdx]

$3300/mo for an apt in Bozeman? Must be a pretty big place. Or perhaps just super-chi-chi?

I know Spokane ain't Bozeman, but our mortgage payment in Spokane for a 4/3 with detached 1/1 ADU was less than that

[singlesline]

They look like literally every other place in Bozeman built there in the last 15 years. Seems that place (and now everywhere in the American mountain West) has the same exact architect and designer. It's like our modern American version of Soviet bloc housing. Except hella expensive.

These lame ass developers come to every mountain town and be like Ctrl+C --> Ctrl+V

Well...yeah

You think they're going to hire a real architect to come up with a novel design for every project? Trying to make money here...go with the design you already have that the guys already know how to build.

The people buying/living in the places don't care. Heck...even most people building new homes for themselves mostly just make it look like everything else that was built in the same decade.

[byates1]

$3300/mo for an apt in Bozeman? Must be a pretty big place. Or perhaps just super-chi-chi?

Pre rusted tin bro.

[Foggy_Goggles]

https://www.northwestcrossingapts.com/

Hot Take: appears fair priced to me

Atleast you have apartments to rent. We just shut the shit down with all kinds of entitled classist, racist, scared people bullshit. And don't want it have free market competition with the governments noble yet incompetent housing agenda.

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[MontuckyFried]

https://www.northwestcrossingapts.com/

Hot Take: appears fair priced to me

"Fair priced"?! Your affordabilit-ometer must be miscalibrated. Be a part of the solution, not a part of the problem, Foggy.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Did you check the website? 1bds are under $2k and 3bds are slightly over $3k.

What should they cost and based on what?

Land, infrastructure, materials and labor cost what they cost.

This is one of two main reasons we can't make progress in this space.

The affordable argument refuses to engage with the sub living wage employers and we won't allow/approve/tolerate value built compexes.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

[skaredshtles]

"Fair priced"?! Your affordabilit-ometer must be miscalibrated. Be a part of the solution, not a part of the problem, Foggy.

I mean - $1000/room seems to be the going rate in popular areas like Bozeman. <shrug>

[Foggy_Goggles]

A quick look makes it seem like teachers start around $45k, cops maybe $65k? Are these too high or too low?

Again people love to opine on rent being too expensive but it's rare that the discussed is ever about wages, build cost, ROI, or any of the other bullet points that could be in the conversation.

Those rents are about on par with what subsidized housing costs in Grand County which isn't even meeting the government sectors own metrics of affordability for the governments' own employees.

Yet I try and bring this shit up in the meetings and and I get painted as the enemy. Meanwhile, the pro affordable housing flag wavers fight tooth and nail to keep multifamily out of their neighborhood.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

[liv2ski]

Rent is pricey anywhere people want to live. Lots of places for much less if you can't afford it. They are red States though, so don't get your girl knocked up.

[byates1]

Liv2ski5xperyr can't help but get partisan any chance he gets

Let's remember:he's wealthy, lives on the beach, and is miserable. Don't aspire to ski 5xper yr.

[4matic]

Perhaps. When my wife retired from teaching I was offered the districts Cobra plan and it was the best deal I could find for the coverage offered. So yeah, maybe it was full price but it was still the best I could get.

Of course, if she was a government teacher. Insurance is subsidized. I’d be shocked if it was a private school.

[4matic]

There’s a nice house in my hood with a great floor plan for sale. Open house was a ghost town yesterday. Another nice one was taken off the market. Now mortgage rates bumping 7% again and the housing and big box stocks got hammered.

The broker on one of the houses says the new law is tweaking buyers and their agents. They can’t rationalize paying the commission after sale price.

Keep an eye on inventories going into next spring.

[altacoup]

House down the street from me has had three weekends in a row of open houses. 2 years ago it wouldn’t have lasted a single day on the market.

[east or bust]

Question for the collective. Back in the early covid years when interest rates were at historic lows, do you guys think it was common for buyers to stretch themselves out to buy at the top end of their affordability levels? Are those same people fucked now (mobility wise) with higher interest rates. Is that just short term thinking until prices fluctuate to match, which we may well be seeing right now?

In theory, would it be wiser to [over]extend at higher interest rates than lower?


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[Toadman]

Question for the collective. Back in the early covid years when interest rates were at historic lows, do you guys think it was common for buyers to stretch themselves out to buy at the top end of their affordability levels? Are those same people fucked now (mobility wise) with higher interest rates. Is that just short term thinking until prices fluctuate to match, which we may well be seeing right now?

In theory, would it be wiser to [over]extend at higher interest rates than lower?


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Well, anecdotally I saw a bunch of people buying parcells of land to build their dream home when interest rates were in the 3% range. Then interest rates doubled and all of a sudden those lots that had sold when rates were at 3% were going back on the market. Granted, ifr you are taking out a loan to build a custom house, the construction loan is generally about a point higher than a convential fixed 30 yr. mortgage.

[singlesline]

Question for the collective. Back in the early covid years when interest rates were at historic lows, do you guys think it was common for buyers to stretch themselves out to buy at the top end of their affordability levels? Are those same people fucked now (mobility wise) with higher interest rates. Is that just short term thinking until prices fluctuate to match, which we may well be seeing right now?

In theory, would it be wiser to [over]extend at higher interest rates than lower?


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In theory, it shouldn't matter much. Prices should fluctuate with interest rates, adjusted for the share of buyers in the market who are true cash (not just "cash" for offer purposes but plan to mortgage immediately).

But the reality is that residential real estate prices are sticky and can stay irrational for extended periods of time. So yes, a lot of people are fucked in terms of mobility. They haven't built enough equity to sell and re-buy at anywhere near a similar price point and prices mostly haven't come down, they've just stopped going up as fast.

Also, even if prices weren't sticky and were entirely driven by monthly payment affordability, it sucks for them. For example, say home prices went down such that after a 20% down, your payment at 6% is the same as the payment was at 3%. A house that was 500k is now 350k.

Shit...person who bought at 3% 3 years ago is now ~30k underwater. And that's assuming 20% down...if they were stretching, maybe they put even less down and are even further underwater. So sure, whatever house they will move to is cheaper...but they have no down payment money and negative equity.

[fastfred]

Well, anecdotally I saw a bunch of people buying parcells of land to build their dream home when interest rates were in the 3% range. Then interest rates doubled and all of a sudden those lots that had sold when rates were at 3% were going back on the market. Granted, ifr you are taking out a loan to build a custom house, the construction loan is generally about a point higher than a convential fixed 30 yr. mortgage.

alot of people thought they could buy some land and put up a beautiful house for 300 a sq ft and live happily ever after
construction costs have completely sidelined many people and that dream

so they shop it around can't find the cheap guy to do it fast and put it back on the market with at least a 50% mark up
then it sits
been seeing lots of lots like this

[Foggy_Goggles]

Yep, and carrying costs on residential land are pretty high given the tax structure, HOAs, utilities and so on. Land is interesting. There is some scarcity value to some unique and premium locations that have more than doubled in the last few years. Think $150k>$300+. And there are other neighborhoods with a lot of vacant lots that really haven't changed much at all. But most people don't borrow money, in the traditional sense, for land.

Home prices seem a stagnant but they are selling. The STR hustler that stretched their way into a second home when rates were low is pretty much gone.

[Shredhead]

Just got my Homeowners Insurance Renewal notice. 71% increase.

[Truckee Joe]

At least you can get insurance. I got dropped years ago. And now with the never ending fire danger, I may never get any again.

[Shredhead]

No doubt. Same thing is going to hit large parts of Florida. No insurance, no financing. Only buyers will be all cash.