Real Estate Crash thread

[Bunion 2020]

Member when Moonlight-only passes were something like $400/year and single day lift tix were like $39? I member. What sucks is that it wasn't THAT long ago to justify the wild rate increases ever since the Boyne buyout. I miss those days.

$ 299.00 season 1 and $ 39 a day, 20 years ago today we were trying to get everything ready to open and didn't have jack shit for snow although more than right now.

The BSIA agreement 2 years later was the start of the end for affordable Big Sky.

[Hopeless Sinner]

I have a 15yr @ 1.875%. I've got 13yrs left and pay a few hundred dollars extra per month. Should be paid off in around 11yrs. Does this make the most financial sense? No, and I know that. The idea of having no payment is worth it to me. Being able to stop paying 3yrs early is worth more the few hundred/thousand dollars in interest I might gain.

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Consider fully funding a Roth before paying down mtg. You've got a great rate, don't let the note holder off the hook early! Some debt is good and your's is stellar.

[Foggy_Goggles]

There are many good reasons to pay off a mortgage but less so in a rising rate environment.

I think Amazon Prime is also contributing to the run up in non-urban/suburban real estate. Its like the Daytona 500 of Brown Santa around here.

And Karens...the fucking Karens. They really think it is a good idea to Special Assess our HOA to engage in a legal battle in an attempt to prevent a small apartment building complex that appears to be fully compliant and has received preliminary approval from the County. Here is the list of what the Scared Whites are afraid off.

West Nile from storm water collection, kids drowning in the storm water run off, headlights shining to there homes, residents catching all the fish out of our ponds, the unsavory poors that live in apartments, pit bulls. And so it goes.

[Name Redacted]

Consider fully funding a Roth before paying down mtg. You've got a great rate, don't let the note holder off the hook early! Some debt is good and your's is stellar.

Yeah, paying off a mortgage at that rate early is the last thing you should do. You can get triple that rate in a money market account even. Then have mortgage payments deducted from the money market account.

[goldenboy]

I think Amazon Prime is also contributing to the run up in non-urban/suburban real estate. Its like the Daytona 500 of Brown Santa around here.

It's a huge deal. Back in the 90's I'd have a list of stuff that I needed to buy the next time I was in Denver, because I couldn't buy it here- and it was usually a big list. Everyone had a Denver list. There is no question that you had to "want it more" to live here back then. Everything is just a click away now, it just takes 5 days to get Amazon deliveries instead of hours or a day or two in the city.

[skaredshtles]

<snip>
And Karens...the fucking Karens. They really think it is a good idea to Special Assess our HOA to engage in a legal battle in an attempt to prevent a small apartment building complex

They *really* want to have a SA to pay for lawyers to fight this?

[Foggy_Goggles]

The stupid #I'vegotaplaceinfraser #howlonghaveyoulivedhere #irememberwhen crowd looks at me cross eyed when I tell 'em you didn't used to be able to by under wear in this town.

You can't put the genie back in the bottle and if the mid 90s never ended I think some of my crowd may be in jail or worse.

And I enjoy the easy livin' too but it has made it busier and more expensive. I do wonder if the aging demographic is gonna catch up with this place.

If 50 and we are still the kids in the room. There us a definite vacuum of 30ish folk making this there home.

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[MontuckyFried]

$ 299.00 season 1 and $ 39 a day, 20 years ago today we were trying to get everything ready to open and didn't have jack shit for snow although more than right now.

The BSIA agreement 2 years later was the start of the end for affordable Big Sky.

...sigh... the good ol' days. I came at a REALLY good time. Was a really chill place and quasi-affordable (post-crash), but yup. Was the beginning of the end for sure as things starting getting monopolized from there on out. Before I moved there, the hotels at the mountain used to offer really good ski & stay deals too.

Speaking of everyone selling out, have you heard about Chico Hot Springs? Some big hospitality investment firm out of Maryland just bought them for $33MM. So much for that place.

[Bunion 2020]

Yeah, I used to really like Chico. When I was with BSSP we had our end of the season party there 4-5 years running until we were banned. Not much publicity in this but LML has acquired a LOT of land in the West Crazy Mountains including what was the Marlboro Ranch. Big plans afoot.

[goldenboy]

If 50 and we are still the kids in the room. There us a definite vacuum of 30ish folk making this there home.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

Interesting. Not the case here at all, Everyone is 30-something and has/ is starting a family.

WG asked way upthread why people buy in CB and for a big chunk of people the top 3 answers are the school, the school, and the school. Half the kids here end up at Mines or some other good school, and the other half go skiing at Montana State.

[MontuckyFried]

Yeah, I used to really like Chico. When I was with BSSP we had our end of the season party there 4-5 years running until we were banned.

Hahaha. That's hilarious. I coincidentally ended up at one of those end of season parties there (pre-kids) and you're not joking. That crew went hard. Even I had to call it a night. I wonder if we hung out that night and didn't even know it! Lol. I've noticed that the Chico mgmt has gotten significantly more uptight since then, with much less tolerance for such tomfoolery.

Not much publicity in this but LML has acquired a LOT of land in the West Crazy Mountains including what was the Marlboro Ranch. Big plans afoot.

Hmm... I had heard some time ago they were considering doing some sort of fancy shmancy heli operation up in the Crazies. It makes a ton of sense on every level, minus the gnarly avi conditions the Crazies are prone to, but still. I've always dreamed about skiing some of those slopes but they're just so hard for us normies to get to. With the big ranches around there, it'd be sweet to have some lux lodge with a helipad. Rich people everywhere gonna be crawling all over each other to book a stay for sure. Contrary to popular belief (thanks to some of the celebs up there), the YC actually does have some exceptional skiers up there I've had the pleasure of getting some ski tours from. I'm sure they'd be down for a heli trip to the Crazies. LML being involved makes sense. That said, every time these mega-acquisitions goes down, I feel another piece of Montana's soul getting sucked away into the ether.

[Bunion 2020]

My last Chico would have been around end of 2002. Ate too many cookies and ended up a chocolate mess on the couch. I believe that Chico banned and lifted that ban several times after that year until they finally said enough.

RE Crazies and Heli ops. I believe that there has been some exploratory done on private peaks in that range already. And yes there are some very fine skiers (rippers) that are Y/C members. And as you experienced some pretty good terrain. x10 on the soul sucking.

[alpinevibes]

It's a huge deal. Back in the 90's I'd have a list of stuff that I needed to buy the next time I was in Denver, because I couldn't buy it here- and it was usually a big list. Everyone had a Denver list. There is no question that you had to "want it more" to live here back then. Everything is just a click away now, it just takes 5 days to get Amazon deliveries instead of hours or a day or two in the city.

I'll counter that a bit and say that I'm continuously surprised by the amount/percentage of people in our social circles who still commit 2hrs+ driving round trip to go to Target, 3hrs to go to Costco or justify a 8hr r/t to Denver for basic "shopping." Obviosuly some people like shopping in person, but I can't imagine giving up half my day or my whole weekend to go buy something from a corporate entity that would ship it to me for free. My boys are only four so we're not decimating the pantry yet, but the Costco thing really blows my mind. I grew up with one 2mi away and my mom went weekly, but fuck driving hours and hours to overspend. Target, Costco, Amazon will send most all of it to your door while you go ski or live your life. /rant

Interesting. Not the case here at all, Everyone is 30-something and has/ is starting a family.

WG asked way upthread why people buy in CB and for a big chunk of people the top 3 answers are the school, the school, and the school. Half the kids here end up at Mines or some other good school, and the other half go skiing at Montana State.

That's funny I just did my WFR recert in Boulder a few weeks back and was chatting with Greydanus' fiance. We were chatting about ski town living/survival and trying to buy a place. I got a sense that they were among a decent sized cohort of 30-somethings trying pull the trigger. That seemed so nice but out of reach as most free market buying here is a distant joke of an idea. Anyone whose non-trust-funders and works for a living is only going to be buying employee housing (when/if they win) or trying to find something under $1M 30-60min away.

[Tips^Up]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS
Median sale price of NEW homes drops by highest margin ever, -17.6% year-over-year. New homes make up about 1/6 of all US home sales.

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/in...ndex/#overview
Case-Shiller home sale price index rose 3.9% annually to an all-time high.

So new homes have the largest ever price decline while all home prices reach an all-time high. WHAT DOES IT MEAN?!

[Conundrum]

Existing homes are in cooler locations?

[Bunion 2020]

Homes are overpriced, again????

[Danno]

wow, looks like I have not read the last 7 pages of this thread. What did I miss? Did you guys solve the real estate problem yet?

[Art Shirk]

I did actually. But then I deleted my post and forgot what I said.


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[406]

^^^my theory is it will fix when the boomers have a significant die off...probably 20 years away as they drain all the medical resources for a good decade.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS
Median sale price of NEW homes drops by highest margin ever, -17.6% year-over-year. New homes make up about 1/6 of all US home sales.

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/in...ndex/#overview
Case-Shiller home sale price index rose 3.9% annually to an all-time high.

So new homes have the largest ever price decline while all home prices reach an all-time high. WHAT DOES IT MEAN?!

I can understand San Diego having rising prices(I guess), but Detroit? I would have thought ever place would be cooling with mortgage rates so high, but guess a lot of all cash buyers out there still.

https://www.marketplace.org/2023/11/...-price-growth/

[Hopeless Sinner]

^^^my theory is it will fix when the boomers have a significant die off...probably 20 years away as they drain all the medical resources for a good decade.



I can understand San Diego having rising prices(I guess), but Detroit?

https://www.marketplace.org/2023/11/...-price-growth/

There will be corresponding inheritances fueling another bump up in the market.

[Mazderati]

Investors bought 1 in 5 homes in Boston area with no intention of living in them, report says
https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/...ousing-market/

Investors are snapping up 1 in 5 Maine homes
https://www.bangordailynews.com/2023...es-joam40zk0w/

Jeff Bezos-Backed Real Estate Company Is Launching A New Fund To Acquire More Single-Family Homes Across The U.S.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeff-...151102586.html

[anotherVTskibum]

I think the Amazon/general quick e-commerce thing is often overlooked in the growth of mountain towns. As someone already said, you used to need to want it more badly; it also used to be a lot more painful if you needed a piece of technology ASAP for business purposes. Working in IT, I make a lot fewer emergency big-box runs than I used to.

[Ted Striker]

So new homes have the largest ever price decline while all home prices reach an all-time high. WHAT DOES IT MEAN?!

lol

Americans have been making people faster than housing.

And that little bald freak is just the latest billionaire asshole jumping into "rentifying" the market.

[yeahman]

Investors bought 1 in 5 homes in Boston area with no intention of living in them, report says
https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/...ousing-market/

Investors are snapping up 1 in 5 Maine homes
https://www.bangordailynews.com/2023...es-joam40zk0w/

Jeff Bezos-Backed Real Estate Company Is Launching A New Fund To Acquire More Single-Family Homes Across The U.S.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeff-...151102586.html

This is what needs to be stopped.

[MontuckyFried]

Investors bought 1 in 5 homes in Boston area with no intention of living in them, report says
https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/...ousing-market/

Investors are snapping up 1 in 5 Maine homes
https://www.bangordailynews.com/2023...es-joam40zk0w/

Jeff Bezos-Backed Real Estate Company Is Launching A New Fund To Acquire More Single-Family Homes Across The U.S.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeff-...151102586.html

And that little bald freak is just the latest billionaire asshole jumping into "rentifying" the market.

This is what needs to be stopped.

NOT cool. This may be one of the largest factors effecting things so much. Investment firms are out of control with this nonsense and it's screwing over the common man in a big way. More than STR, more than WFH tech guys, more than Californian refugees.

Weird observation I've noticed lately. In my own neighborhood where homes are infrequently for sale (since the market got wild that is), the last 3 or 4 homes were snagged by investors. Paying waaaay over asking, cash of course, and like the same day the property hits the market. That's been par for the course these last couple years, but here's the weird part. Homes that were purchased over the course of the last year or so have sat completely vacant! They're not renting them out or anything. Nobody's living there. This is frustrating to both renters and honest home shoppers alike.

Are these a-holes purposefully leaving properties vacant as to artificially reduce available rental and RE inventory, thus driving up prices across the board?! Because that's what it appears like on the surface at least.