Real Estate Crash thread

[TBS]

I'm 95% sure I walked through this place over the summer when it was about 67% complete. No way this house would have gone for more than maybe $750k pre-COVID. It's crazy what they are asking for new construction in Bend.

https://www.redfin.com/OR/Bend/1185-...90eXBlPTMmej0w

97703 has the most expensive real estate in OR.

[Toadman]

97703 has the most expensive real estate in OR.

No Shit!? I would have thought some swanky zip code in Lake Oswego.

[TBS]

See https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/...te-in-america/

[Foggy_Goggles]

So what? This completely misses the point. And it's a myth anyway.

No. It is not not true. And no. Some people do want to live there. But there is more affordable real estate in places like NW MT, NW CO and all over WY, ID, UT and elsewhere in the intermountain west.

But they tend to be far aware from skiing and living wage jobs. I don't know what the solution is but it sucks for those not on the property ladder. Here in Grand County, USA we have gone from having an affordable housing problem to a straight housing problem. Homes start at $1million and condos about $500k plus high HOAs.

The ski area just said "fuck it" and build a +/- 300 unit hotel for staff. I think this winter will be interesting. I know of service businesses that are massively understaffed. The service levels are going to be disgustingly low.

We will see. The "I bought a house in the mountains but I couldn't park at the ski area, the lift lines were redic, we couldn't find anywhere to eat, the grocery was out of food and it took 4 hours to drive home" story must get old eventually.

[yeahman]

See https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/...te-in-america/

That's interesting but what would be really interesting would be a state by state breakdown of every zip code in each state. Then we could really target the affordable areas, invest there, and make them unaffordable asap. That's the American way.

[yeahman]

And you guys are naive if you don't believe these so called less desirable areas will be targeted by the WFH crowd. First wave of WFH took over desirable areas, next wave will invade less desirable, then third tier desirable, and so on down the line. It is inevitable that these still affordable places be ruined. Talk to me in twenty years.

[Foggy_Goggles]

I don't disagree with your path for where the WFH'rs will live but your doomsday scenario is only one version of the future. Things to consider:

are the WFH wages sustainable relative to IRL wages or will the laptop class be turned into the next non-living wage industry?

Is a virtual economy even the future?

I mean if, in 20years, places like Havre, Evaston and Wendover have the same lack of affordability as the sexy places of today I think the housing market is going to be the least of our worries.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Don't forget Wells, Nevada.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

The WFH boom is already dropping off. Many newer or hipper tech and tech adjacent companies are calling back their super lax policies. Employees not able to be 100% remote. Must be in the office 2-3 days a week etc. There are people who moved here 2 years ago from Austin/San Jose/etc who are not allowed to be fully remote anymore.

That being said the cat is out of the bag so to speak and yes there is a crazy number of remote workers now. I really really don't see a time where techie remote workers are going to want to live in Wibaux or similar.

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[Foggy_Goggles]

In the mountains, it rolls downhill...or should I say down valley.

The equity has to go somewhere. And people have to live somewhere also.

The awesome HCL places are only awesome is you can afford the HCL.

At some point, a place on the lake in Kansas with a funded 401k, a bit of cheese in the bank and a good night's sleep that comes from not freaking out about money starts to look enticing.

The machine will figure out how to exchange a living wage for corporate profits in the WFH industries. Nobody is insulated from that.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

[neckdeep]

I know of service businesses that are massively understaffed. The service levels are going to be disgustingly low.

We will see. The "I bought a house in the mountains but I couldn't park at the ski area, the lift lines were redic, we couldn't find anywhere to eat, the grocery was out of food and it took 4 hours to drive home" story must get old eventually.

A friend of mine's family did the Jackson Hole/Yellowstone vacay last summer and told him it was the worst vacation they've ever had. Specifically, they were amazed people would pay so much just for awesome views and the chance of seeing a moose or bison. The place is beautiful but everything else sucked, in their opinion. Prices were high, service was poor and waits were long. Traffic was bad, parking unavailable, etc. It simply wasn't worth the hassles. The price of activities....ridiculous. They were utterly floored by the idea that rich people pay $800 for a day of trout fishing and that's considered normal here.

[Bunion 2020]

At some point, a place on the lake in Kansas with a funded 401k, a bit of cheese in the bank and a good night's sleep that comes from not freaking out about money starts to look enticing.

Dunno about Kansas but yes this looks to be my path.

[phatty]

The WFH boom is already dropping off. Many newer or hipper tech and tech adjacent companies are calling back their super lax policies. Employees not able to be 100% remote. Must be in the office 2-3 days a week etc. There are people who moved here 2 years ago from Austin/San Jose/etc who are not allowed to be fully remote anymore.

That being said the cat is out of the bag so to speak and yes there is a crazy number of remote workers now. I really really don't see a time where techie remote workers are going to want to live in Wibaux or similar.

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100% this. I work in tech and am one of the WFH people, though I live in the Seattle suburbs and have since before things went crazy. As WG said, super lax WFH policies are already drying up. My company will force all new hires hired near an office to be in there 3 days a week starting the new year. Also, pay is starting to get adjusted. If you want to move to a "lower cost area" away from SF, Seattle, etc. then your pay will be adjusted down to your new market. Also you will still be required in the office for 3 days per quarter and, if you move away from the office, these office visits will be on your own dime.

To think the Gen Z/Millennial WFH crowd is going to love en masse to depressed Midwest towns in the middle of nowhere is laughable. There is literally zero appeal for an urban techie.

[liv2ski]

To think the Gen Z/Millennial WFH crowd is going to love en masse to depressed Midwest towns in the middle of nowhere is laughable. There is literally zero appeal for an urban techie.

Our friends daughter just graduated as a Doctor and moved to Kansas City to be with her guy, as he like the cost of living, work/life balance they have. So a small town, maybe not, but larger metro areas that has everything for 30% off, maybe.

[MontuckyFried]

We will see. The "I bought a house in the mountains but I couldn't park at the ski area, the lift lines were redic, we couldn't find anywhere to eat, the grocery was out of food and it took 4 hours to drive home" story must get old eventually.

A friend of mine's family did the Jackson Hole/Yellowstone vacay last summer and told him it was the worst vacation they've ever had. Specifically, they were amazed people would pay so much just for awesome views and the chance of seeing a moose or bison. The place is beautiful but everything else sucked, in their opinion. Prices were high, service was poor and waits were long. Traffic was bad, parking unavailable, etc....

That's the reality of it, and it really bums me out just how played out all the more established places have become. After returning to Big Sky Spring before last, I couldn't get over how much it had changed in the last few years. The view off my old back porch has been mostly ruined by developers (not condos, but big metal buildings and construction lots). "Mud season" used to be DEAD but the trails by town were jam packed. There was a constant stream of traffic. Again, this was during what used to be off-season.

I'm not gonna lie. It kind of pissed me off because when I lived there and was attempting to figure out a business, you had to jump through a bunch of hoops with various little bureaucracies with every little group clinging to certain levels of control. Zoning was one of the biggest challenges. Either way, both myself and countless others had multiple business ideas completely shot down before they could even see the light of day. We're talking small businesses with minimal footprints compared to what's going on now. NOW, these assholes must've said "screw it" because in the very locations I saw others get their good and community beneficial ideas rejected for, there are now big construction material plants and all sorts of other unsightly things. Now this is not at all unique to Big Sky, but one of the things that increased over the years was how if you were part of a certain group of elites, you could get approval, but if you were not, then it was "piss off, peasant." It's my understanding that some of these folks are present in both Jackson and BS. 10 years ago, there's no way in hell any of these industrial/commercial sites would've gotten approval. There's effectively been a hostile takeover within and tech bros willing to pay whatever doesn't help matters. A tech couple bought MY home there. Haha. Of course prices are now more than double/triple than back then FML.

It ain't what it used to be, that's for sure.

[Name Redacted]

Handwringing about WFHers taking over the midwest cracks me up. I think it'll be a long time before that's an issue, why not focus on the hundreds of towns that actually are being affected?

[Foggy_Goggles]

You know what's laughable? Thinking that a majority of the population can afford to live somewhere cool, irrespective of their age and whether the WFH.

I'm guessing the people that say others would hate say rural Kansas are the same people that say they hate Florida. I bet they have never been there.

You know what people really hate? Being broke AF and having no hope.

Get out a bit. Talk to people. Go in that shitty looking diner in the middle of nowhere.

See who is happy. Chances are it will have fuck all to do with where their home is or how nice it is. For us, it may have something to do with skiing but even that isn't a secret recipe

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[phatty]

Our friends daughter just graduated as a Doctor and moved to Kansas City to be with her guy, as he like the cost of living, work/life balance they have. So a small town, maybe not, but larger metro areas that has everything for 30% off, maybe.

KC is nothing like the towns we're talking about. Of course lower cost metros that have amenities will be able to draw people. See Boise, SLC and before them Denver, Austin and Phoenix.

[goldenboy]

Assuming you can still make your Silicon valley wage, I think there are a lot of people who will happily live in the midwest. The FIRE people can save 80% of their income in a LCL area and retire in their early 30's. That's an appealing tradeoff, especially if you aren't into any outdoor sports, etc anyway.

[Name Redacted]

I lived in Kansas for a stint and it sucked, for many many reasons. No way I would willingly choose to live there unless I had fallen on very hard times.

[phatty]

You know what people really hate? Being broke AF and having no hope.

How many broke AF WFHers do you know? There ain't many. The broke AF people these towns might appeal to are the ones who would need a job close or in town, which don't exist. Which is why the town is doing anything that could bring people in.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Shit, Bentonville was at the forefront of the "pay people to move here" thing 6 or 7 years ago if I'm not mistaken. I'm sure SOME people moved there but not many AND they have more MTB trails than pretty much anywhere AND I think they actually have some stores, a Whole Foods, etc.

What will keep people from moving to super rural Eastern MT, NE, KS, etc won't be the lack of sports or not....it's lack of views and lack of creature comforts. Making 6 figures and buying a $120k house is still not enough to make it ok to have to drive 2+ hours to any actual stores.

Not sure how different it is in CB, but lots of people move here for the views and amenities and could care less about how good the skiing is.

Edit to add: I think the prairie country is beautiful but I don't live there. Maybe when I am 60 years old. I just don't see 30something year old upper level tech bros moving to the middle of nowhere to save some money. Very few will do that IMO unless already extremely introverted or they grew up on a ranch and want to return to that life somewhat. The value system for younger generations is all about enjoying their lives as much as possible NOW. Far fewer are living like our parents where they just want to save save save and live somewhere crappy so they can buy a condo in Boca and a Class C when they are 62 years old.

[phatty]

Assuming you can still make your Silicon valley wage, I think there are a lot of people who will happily live in the midwest. The FIRE people can save 80% of their income in a LCL area and retire in their early 30's. That's an appealing tradeoff, especially if you aren't into any outdoor sports, etc anyway.

The wage arbitrage is going away or already has. Most companies are adjusting pay if you move away. For a niche, they might like that. But why do that in Kansas when you can do the same thing in Bali or Mexico? Are there instagramable coffee shops? If not, good luck getting the average young tech worker there.

[Toadman]

See https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/...te-in-america/

Well, I guess I have a nice zip code to humble brag about then. But within that 97703 are some normalish neighborhoods surrounded by the likes of Tetherow, North Rim, Westgate and Discovery Park which drive up that median price. But a far cry from some of those other zip codes like Ketchum and Telluride.

[Toadman]

Shit, Bentonville was at the forefront of the "pay people to move here" thing 6 or 7 years ago if I'm not mistaken. I'm sure SOME people moved there but not many AND they have more MTB trails than pretty much anywhere AND I think they actually have some stores, a Whole Foods, etc.

What will keep people from moving to super rural Eastern MT, NE, KS, etc won't be the lack of sports or not....it's lack of views and lack of creature comforts. Making 6 figures and buying a $120k house is still not enough to make it ok to have to drive 2+ hours to any actual stores.

Not sure how different it is in CB, but lots of people move here for the views and amenities and could care less about how good the skiing is.

Edit to add: I think the prairie country is beautiful but I don't live there. Maybe when I am 60 years old. I just don't see 30something year old upper level tech bros moving to the middle of nowhere to save some money. Very few will do that IMO unless already extremely introverted or they grew up on a ranch and want to return to that life somewhat. The value system for younger generations is all about enjoying their lives as much as possible NOW. Far fewer are living like our parents where they just want to save save save and live somewhere crappy so they can buy a condo in Boca and a Class C when they are 62 years old.

What's not being mentioned is the health care. If you are close to retirement and maybe want to jump ship a few years earlier because the math works out to move to Podunk, USA, then you better have really good health because that farm doctor with the bare minimum equipment is probably not going to cut it if you need some serious medical care.

Heck, even here in Bend, St Charles is a 2nd tier hospital with 2nd rate care. No offense to the medical staff and nurses, but it just doesn't compare to the hospitals up in Seattle or Portland.