Real Estate Crash thread

[Danno]

Or, they know that if they do show up, the people with all that free time to oppose that shit will spend time fucking with them also.

That is small town politics at its worst, and it is very common.

Agree.

I learned this a few years back trying to engage a few people on nextdoor.com about a local issue (I had not yet learned what a cesspool that place is). Somebody googled me and threatened my job because I disagreed with them on a policy issue. If you live somewhere that has well funded and/or retired NIMBYs, watch out.

[BmillsSkier]

Or, they know that if they do show up, the people with all that free time to oppose that shit will spend time fucking with them also.

That is small town politics at its worst, and it is very common.

Yep.

In what seems like a lifetime ago I was nominated to fill a vacant seat on my city council to help save a beloved neighborhood bar from being shut down due to neighborhood busybodies.

It may have only been 6-8 people that were hell-bent on seeing that (very respectable and very active in the community) pub get shut down, but they knew how to make life hard on everyone else, including me when I was approached after my first public meeting on the matter with some very specific information about my house and some work that had been done on my detached garage, apparently without a permit, and how that could cause "lots of problems for a young guy like me".

Just remembering that makes me hate those fucks.

Anyway, the pub got saved but they had to disassemble a brand new covered deck they constructed as part of a compromise and I'm assuming those that tried to shut it down all died alone and covered in cat piss.

[4matic]

Only the beginning imo. All that new inventory is starting to come online:

“US Rents are 1.2% lower than a year ago, the biggest YoY decline since December 2020.

72 out of the 100 largest cities in the US had negative rent growth over the past year.”

[liv2ski]

Knowing that rents have gone up at least 25% in the last 5 years in San Diego, I would say BFD to lower rents by 1.2%

[4matic]

Knowing that rents have gone up at least 25% in the last 5 years in San Diego, I would say BFD to lower rents by 1.2%

That’s not the point. It’s a key metric in inflation calculation and therefore interest rate expectation.

[goldenboy]

Fun story. One of my clients said that his parents are selling their home in AZ. The buyers ended up being the same buyers that bought his parent's home (the one he grew up in) on the east coast 30 years ago. That's some crazy stuff.

[spanky]

Fun story. One of my clients said that his parents are selling their home in AZ. The buyers ended up being the same buyers that bought his parent's home (the one he grew up in) on the east coast 30 years ago. That's some crazy stuff.

#stalking

[rideit]

Hey, if someone wants to stalk me and repeatedly give me mad amounts of money, have at it. I’ll give them my phone number.

[J. Barron DeJong]

https://x.com/jeremiahdjohns/status/...sR_NcRK2VkCfkg

It’s good to make it easier to build.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Different type of real estate crash waiting to happen:

[dunfree]

May have been easier to buy a house, but chances are the house was a lot smaller and the appliances in it were also terrible. More ways the past was terrible:
No widespread availability of fresh fruits and vegetables. Especially out of season.
Pollution in basically every single city in the country was pervasive and awful.
Crime was way higher. Way more serial killers as well.
Fewer people approved of interracial marriage in 1990 than approve of gay marriage today.
The bikes were fucking terrible.
The cars were slow death traps.
It was super hard to actually learn stuff without the internet.
Real median income was a good 30% lower than it is now: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

The past was fucking terrible. Every single one of us should count our lucky stars to be alive in America in 2023. That alone makes us among the luckiest people that have ever existed in all of humanity.

Over the last 50 years the US house ownership rate has fluctuated between ~63% and ~69% to the ~66% it is now and houses were decidedly shittier in the 1960s. Sone of what you say is true, but things like food? Food sucked in part because of transport, but also because women got forced by society to be in charge of meals & groceries something many didn’t want to be. So you got shit recombinant cuisine. It ain’t all time & tech

edit: what the fuck is that stairway? A ladder would be safer.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Over the last 50 years the US house ownership rate has fluctuated between ~63% and ~69% to the ~66% it is now and houses were decidedly shittier in the 1960s. Sone of what you say is true, but things like food? Food sucked in part because of transport, but also because women got forced by society to be in charge of meals & groceries something many didn’t want to be. So you got shit recombinant cuisine. It ain’t all time & tech

edit: what the fuck is that stairway? A ladder would be safer.

Was that supposed to read ‘none of what you say is true’ or something else?

[mcphee]

^thats called sundowning

[J. Barron DeJong]

^thats called sundowning

Insomnia, actually. New thing I’m trying out. Do not recommend.

[dunfree]

Was that supposed to read ‘none of what you say is true’ or something else?

More I agree with RooR that CG would have nothing to do with a 1960s, but find both their definitions of “better” problematic in a way relevant to this thread. Some 20, 50, 100 year old homes have relevance because they are place to live. Some are just things in the way. The difference between those is the crash

[ColMan]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/r...003712190.html

"10.1% of people who are likely to move in the next year are doing so because of a return-to-office policy."

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Fun story. One of my clients said that his parents are selling their home in AZ. The buyers ended up being the same buyers that bought his parent's home (the one he grew up in) on the east coast 30 years ago. That's some crazy stuff.

I wonder what the mathematical odds are. Just kooky.

[XXX-er]

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-...y-800-per-cent

the city hikes STR license fees by 800 %

[Core Shot]

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-...y-800-per-cent

the city hikes STR license fees by 800 %

Interesting. But probably not enough. Do they have taxes?

Here it’s 14%
That’s a lot if your renting $5k or 8k a week, as many homes are.
Oddly. The tax is paid by the renters. It would be better if it came out of the landlord side.

[MontuckyFried]

So, wife and I are pondering moving back to MT due to an opportunity to get a good price on a house we know. We started looking at home prices in the area and we're noticing significant price drops across the board and homes sitting for weeks/months. Is this an indicator of the tide starting to turn or is it simply that it's September, which is typically not that great of a time to sell anyway?

[Bunion 2020]

Hard to tell and depends on where. They are building so many apartments in the Gallatin Valley I cannot help but wonder where all the people will park or what roads they will drive on when the entire town gridlocks. I also wonder about the effects on future home values. And it is September yadda yadda yadda.

[Red7]

So, wife and I are pondering moving back to MT due to an opportunity to get a good price on a house we know. We started looking at home prices in the area and we're noticing significant price drops across the board and homes sitting for weeks/months. Is this an indicator of the tide starting to turn or is it simply that it's September, which is typically not that great of a time to sell anyway?

Seeing that all over Idaho (and some other areas as well). It's definitely regionally specific, but inventories and price cuts do seem to be on the rise in areas. I think people who were hoping that their place would sell during the peak Summer season are getting more aggressive.

[XXX-er]

Interesting. But probably not enough. Do they have taxes?

Here it’s 14%
That’s a lot if your renting $5k or 8k a week, as many homes are.
Oddly. The tax is paid by the renters. It would be better if it came out of the landlord side.

Its Canada so we got lotsa taxes, Vangroovy is some of if not THE most expensive RE in Canada and its impossible to find a place to live at any price

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

So, wife and I are pondering moving back to MT due to an opportunity to get a good price on a house we know. We started looking at home prices in the area and we're noticing significant price drops across the board and homes sitting for weeks/months. Is this an indicator of the tide starting to turn or is it simply that it's September, which is typically not that great of a time to sell anyway?

Lots of factors. There are some good buys out there right now. Very few people are selling right now because they got themselves locked into these amazing sub 3% rates that they will maybe never see again. So, those that are selling have a real reason to that's worth them having to take on a new higher rate in a new house: In my office and my own listings its: Divorce, job relocation, having another kid and house is too small, moving to be close to grandkids, etc. Many have a timeline in mind so some sellers are getting very motivated....and like you said winter coming. Frost on the roof this AM here.

What's important to look at in MT RE right now: Since the peak of 2022 are home values are UP almost 4%. Literally everywhere else surrounding like WA, ID, WY, etc has gone down ever so slightly since last year.

Latest stat for Gallatin County shows 98% of list price received on recent sales. Inventory still low etc. It's certainly a weird market and in my opinion a great time to buy if you want to shoulder a higher rate for a bit. If you have an opportunity that pencils out go for it. If/when rates do pull back eventually there is still a ton of pent up buyer demand. Sure the rate might be better but you are gonna compete with 5+ offers when now you may be the only offer.

[Joey Joe Joe Junior Shabadoo]

Hard to tell and depends on where. They are building so many apartments in the Gallatin Valley I cannot help but wonder where all the people will park or what roads they will drive on when the entire town gridlocks. I also wonder about the effects on future home values. And it is September yadda yadda yadda.

County Commissioners and Developers: "Infrastructure? Never heard of him, what's his last name?"