Total of six people caught in three avalanches in 24 hours

[Hacksaw]

https://denvergazette.com/outthereco...4cee-174633346

[andy m]

I assume the Front Range avalanche referred to in the article was the incident on Hagar, where four people were caught while booting up for a second run:

https://avalanche.state.co.us/observ...c-a8c619448e81

[skaredshtles]

I assume the Front Range avalanche referred to in the article was the incident on Hagar, where four people were caught while booting up for a second run:

https://avalanche.state.co.us/observ...c-a8c619448e81

Holy crap.

[goldenboy]

People are skiing pretty aggressive lines in my neck of the woods, even though the CBAC just bumped it back up to considerable due to the warm temps setting off another natural cycle.

I'm going to keep riding chairs and maybe do a bit of ice climbing, personally. We almost always get a PWL, but this year's version seems particularly shitty.

[2FUNKY]

Wow, just nuts.


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[adrenalated]

We almost always get a PWL, but this year's version seems particularly shitty.

The pits I dug this past weekend had some of the weakest snowpack I've ever seen. I don't yet have a good handle on "normal" for the San Juans, but for Colorado in general, particularly shitty seems like a good descriptor.

Anyway here are the observations from the other two incidents, all three are fascinating to read in their own way.

Meaden Peak NW of Steamboat, party of 3 with 1 caught and not buried
https://avalanche.state.co.us/observ...a-7fdbb694a9a2

Red Mountain 3 N of Red Mountain Pass/Silverton, party of 2 with 1 caught and partially buried
https://avalanche.state.co.us/observ...4-2a4b6ff07ded

[whipski]

Essentially side country on Hagar?

[cravenmorhead]

Hagar isn't that easy to get to. Loveland has a cat skiing operation it can run in the basin, but Hagar never struck me as having a side country vibe.

[rocca]

Essentially side country on Hagar?

Not really, as craven said above. There is a gate off of 8 but it's pretty low and requires a good walk to get to Hagar/Dry Gulch.

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[Foggy_Goggles]

The hits keep coming. Sort the field reports by "caught". The narrative right now could be substantially different if it where not for some remarkable luck, in my opinion. I have noticed a change in the message from the avalanche center basically saying, "If you are going to sent, this is how you stack the deck in your favor".

[BFD]

Someone took a ride yesterday behind my house on Del Norte peak. No injuries airbag and the debris spread out.https://avalanche.state.co.us/observ...0-7e74bfd5243a

[beaterdit]

Lots of catch and carries and other close calls out here in UT lately too. "Scary Moderate" is my rating, PWL like you guys. I'm not smart enough to be skiing avi terrain in these conditions. Things that are happening give me a bad feeling.

[snowaddict91]

Red Mountain 3 N of Red Mountain Pass/Silverton, party of 2 with 1 caught and partially buried
https://avalanche.state.co.us/observ...4-2a4b6ff07ded

Seeing this slide from the highway Sunday was sobering. Didn't stop a group from punching serpentine on Red 2 though, a similar aspect/elevation one peak away. I think I'll be skiing the resort and keeping it mellow for a while.

I'm on the fence if I'll even bring my touring gear to the Wasatch next week.

[easyrdr]

Holy shit that Red Mountain one is nuts. My touring gear is gathering dust, been reading the report daily and just can't justify going out. Lapping chairs at Purg is where it's at. Hope these next two storms dump what's forecasted. Looking more and more that the backcountry will have to wait until spring.

[goldenboy]

The narrative right now could be substantially different if it where not for some remarkable luck, in my opinion.

Yeah, we could pat ourselves on the back right now since there has only been one death, and even that one could have had a lucky outcome. But I feel like there could just as easily been 10+ by now if not for luck.

Stay safe out there, this is a tough pack this season.

[beaterdit]

Two scary close calls for us this week. They were both very lucky, each could have easily ended badly. 4-6 slabs. One ran 2000' but the skier got pushed out a side eddy after a few hundred. They other, famous freeskier, got swept through trees and boulders, no helmet even, came out partially buried with a broken ski and a minor tweaked knee.

Thing about luck is, it runs out.

[Irlts]

"The group did not observe any signs of instability, like cracking or collapsing". I feel like I read this comment all the time, but never understood why that would then turn into a green light.

[MakersTeleMark]

People are skiing pretty aggressive lines in my neck of the woods, even though the CBAC just bumped it back up to considerable due to the warm temps setting off another natural cycle.

I'm going to keep riding chairs and maybe do a bit of ice climbing, personally. We almost always get a PWL, but this year's version seems particularly shitty.

https://classic.avalanche.state.co.u...=863&accfm=rep 2/11/2024 fatality.

[powdork]

^that was mag backcountry1pr
https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/...backcountry1pr

[Lindahl]

Yeah, we could pat ourselves on the back right now since there has only been one death, and even that one could have had a lucky outcome. But I feel like there could just as easily been 10+ by now if not for luck.

Stay safe out there, this is a tough pack this season.

Exactly how I'm feeling about this year's snowpack. A lot of people around this time of year are banking on midpack bridging, but that's pretty unreliable this year given how much worse it is than more normal years. Too much 'seems stable' going around in my neck of the woods.

[gmorgg]

Exactly how I'm feeling about this year's snowpack. A lot of people around this time of year are banking on midpack bridging, but that's pretty unreliable this year given how much worse it is than more normal years. Too much 'seems stable' going around in my neck of the woods.

Yes same here people in Summit are definitely stepping out into pretty serious terrain. Silver got hammered on Sunday

[Dantheman]

"The group did not observe any signs of instability, like cracking or collapsing". I feel like I read this comment all the time, but never understood why that would then turn into a green light.

Those are reliable indicators for reactive near-surface instabilities in recent snowfall, but they mean fuckall for a PWL.

[skaredshtles]

Yes same here people in Summit are definitely stepping out into pretty serious terrain. Silver got hammered on Sunday

Yeesh...

[North]

"The group did not observe any signs of instability, like cracking or collapsing". I feel like I read this comment all the time, but never understood why that would then turn into a green light.

I am growing increasingly agitated when seeing this sentence in field reports this season. Clearly the messaging is not getting through. My question is how do we fix that? I have some involvement on the education side, and am all ears on ideas for more effectively ingraining the message that a lack of flashing red instability clues are not an indicator of stability for a PWL.

[adrenalated]

Exactly how I'm feeling about this year's snowpack. A lot of people around this time of year are banking on midpack bridging, but that's pretty unreliable this year given how much worse it is than more normal years. Too much 'seems stable' going around in my neck of the woods.

Yep and the problem is, for much of the state, the PWL of concern is ABOVE the mid-pack slab. It's not the depth hoar like it is on many years. CAIC is starting to become a little more direct on this at least in the forecast discussions. All three forecast discussions (northern, central, and southern) are specifically calling out faceted layers buried in early February as the most concerning right now. In our hasty pits on Berthoud this weekend, very weak layers producing planer failures were very easy to find sitting above the dense mid-pack slab and ever-present depth hoar. I do think CAIC could be doing better to call this out in the forecast summary and not hiding it in the discussion, or doing what CBAC does and providing a text paragraph describing the details in the section where they list avalanche problems.

I am growing increasingly agitated when seeing this sentence in field reports this season. Clearly the messaging is not getting through. My question is how do we fix that? I have some involvement on the education side, and am all ears on ideas for more effectively ingraining the message that a lack of flashing red instability clues are not an indicator of stability for a PWL.

I too am very interested in this. My first thought, at the awareness level when we first introduce red flags - we introduce them as "indicators that dangerous conditions may exist." Perhaps we need to be more explicit that lack of red flags does not equal green light? At what level should we start getting into the weeds of behavior of specific types of avalanche problems and red flags that you can expect/not expect to see for each?