MLB 2024 Thread

[alias_rice]

Holy crap

This is what working for Arte Moreno does to a man. Shohei knows that Friedman and Walter are win first guys and I think that’s all he cares about now. Pretty nice job security for Friedman though.

[ex-powderbroker]

fkn hell.

https://x.com/DanClarkSports/status/...454177419?s=20

no clue who this guy is but it sounds like the giants are going to have a tough time next year.

[ticketchecker]

awesome Satire breakdown of the Ohtani deal, I laffed

https://x.com/Merk256/status/1734900603099217922?s=20

[BmillsSkier]

The amount of people wringing their hands over Ohtani's deal are the same people that forget that Max Scherzer is the highest paid player on 3 different teams right now. Deferred compensation isn't anything new. Shit, the Mets celebrate it once a year.

[Danno]

I think all of the hand wringing is really related to it being the Dodgers; I bet the Yankees would have received the same (and maybe the Mets because of Cohen's spending). But if a different team had signed him to the exact same contract, nobody would be batting an eye. Buster Olney had a great breakdown on ESPN (copied below due to paywall)

As the first details of Shohei Ohtani's deal began to drip out over the weekend, the initial response in some rival front offices was fury. Though the exact numbers weren't yet known, it was clear that much of the $700 million that L.A. agreed to pay Ohtani would be deferred. Executives across baseball hypothesized that the Los Angeles Dodgers might have skirted payroll rules with the unusual structure of the contract.

A few days later, the full extent was revealed: Ohtani's salary is actually just $2 million per season. A full 97% of his salary -- $680 million of the contract -- will be deferred until later this century. But as executives have had time to process the Ohtani deal, cross-referencing the contract with the collective bargaining agreement rules, a broader truth has settled in: The Dodgers did nothing wrong.

To be sure, it's a monster deal, and it's a deal that some small-market owners will inevitably point to as they angle for changes in the next collective bargaining agreement. Even considering deferrals, Ohtani will cost the Dodgers more in 2024 than the entire Oakland roster, apparently. But it's a strange deal. And most importantly, within the language of the current CBA, the arrangement between Ohtani and the Dodgers appears to be perfectly legal: "There shall be no limitations on either the amount of the deferred compensation or the percentage of total compensation attributable to deferred compensation..."

The practice of deferring salary has been in play for a lot of teams and players for decades. Most famously, the Mets arranged a $29 million deal with slugger Bobby Bonilla before the 1992 season, and within that contract, Bonilla's agent arranged deferred payments to be made from 2011 through 2035, in excess of $1 million each. In Peter Angelos' tenure as the owner of the Orioles, he preferred contracts that deferred salary, to be paid later rather than sooner. For example: when slugger first baseman Chris Davis signed a seven-year, $161 million deal in 2016, there was so much deferred salary within the details that Angelos personally assessed the present-day value at closer to $117 million. The Dodgers previously deferred salary in their deals with two other current superstars, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. When news of Freeman's agreement leaked, it was first reported at $162 million over six years, seemingly more money than the Braves had offered him before his talks with Atlanta broke down -- but in fact, $57 million of that money was deferred, and the value of the contract was actually very close to what the Braves had offered. Following that negotiation, Freeman fired his representatives.

But no player has ever deferred nearly as much money as Ohtani. That's in part due to his unusual stature in the sport: No other players makes nearly as much in endorsements, particularly internationally, so he relies far less on his salary from an MLB team. It's one of the reasons he joined the league earlier than many expected, in 2018, when he was just 23 and subject to MLB's international signing restrictions (if he'd waited until after his 25th birthday, he wouldn't have been subject to those same caps).

Other teams and agents prefer cleaner contracts. Some general managers privately said they'd rather not have salary obligations from ancient contracts hanging on their books; other agents fret about a changing world.

"I want my players to get their money as soon as possible," one agent said, "because you don't know what could happen. The economy could tank. Teams might tank, and go belly up."

Or there could be a pandemic? "Right?" the agent continued. "I'd rather have my guys using their money than teams holding their money and using it."

Agents will sometimes agree to deferred money to affect the perception of the contract -- to hit certain salary benchmarks, to establish new precedent. The optics have always mattered. Famously, Alex Rodriguez's contract with the Texas Rangers in 2001 was worth an oddly specific $252 million -- precisely double that of Kevin Garnett's deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves, the previous standard in North American sports. Because of the structure of Ohtani's deal, his agent, Nez Balelo, can claim that he is the first to negotiate an MLB deal that starts with the number 5 -- and 6, and yes, 7, for $700 million.

"The Dodgers got the player, and the agent hit his numbers," said another club executive, noting dryly that it probably wasn't a coincidence through all of the math, the size and rate of the deferrals, landed on exactly $700 million -- a number that was first announced by the agent Saturday and remained unacknowledged by the Dodgers for two days, before the nuance of the accounting invaded this alternate reality. "That's what this was about," the executive said.

On Monday, the number that actually matters was invoked -- the present-day value of Ohtani's contract, as assessed within the calculus of the CBA rules, is a little less than two-thirds of $700 million, or about $461 million. This is the number -- the CBT number, as it is commonly referred to by front office types and agents -- that is used within baseball's accounting. According to researcher Sarah Langs of MLB.com, these are the top 10 contracts, in total CBT value, in MLB history:

1, Ohtani $460,814,765
2, Mike Trout $426,500,000
3, Aaron Judge $360,000,000
4, Manny Machado $350,000,000
5, Francisco Lindor $341,000,000
6, Fernando Tatis $340,000,000
7, Bryce Harper $330,000,000
T8, Giancarlo Stanton $325,000,000
T8, Corey Seager $325,000,000
10, Gerrit Cole $324,000,000

Because of the tidal wave of erroneous reporting in the Ohtani negotiation -- from last Friday's tracking of a flight that wasn't carrying Ohtani to the reports that he was headed to the Blue Jays -- on top of the usual winter market disinformation, there is a lot of industry skepticism about some of the reports attached to his deal.

For example: The notion that Ohtani deferred salary to give the Dodgers' financial flexibility. Ohtani will be making $2 million annually in the 10 years of his contract, and as the theory goes, this will give the Dodgers more money to spend on, say, starting pitching. But the math is more daunting than that for the Dodgers, in the luxury tax accounting, because the team will be assessed the average annual value of Ohtani's contract, way more than $2 million.

Ohtani's CBT number -- based on the present value of the contract, using current national interest rates -- is still the highest for any player in the sport, and almost 20% of the room under the 2024 tax threshold of $237 million.

"It's still a CBT hit of $46.1 million," one agent said. "If he had done a deal without deferrals -- say, 10 years, $550 million, straight up -- then his CBT number would have been $55 million. The difference of what, one relief pitcher? One Joe Kelly? It's not like the deferred money gives the Dodgers a lot of flexibility to deal with the luxury tax."

All of which, again, begs the question of the point of making this all so complicated.

Back in August, when the Angels announced that Ohtani had suffered an arm injury, one agent acknowledged that the bidding for the two-way star would be affected because of the uncertainty about when he would pitch again, and offered an educated guess about where the winning contract number would fall.

"You start with the Judge contract, right?" said the agent, saying that Ohtani's offensive production would be valued in the range of Aaron Judge's $360 million deal with the Yankees. "Then on the pitching side of it... you factor in the risk for someone coming off a second major elbow injury, his potential if he's healthy."

The agent paused. "You give him another $100 million -- $460 million."

Which is precisely where the Dodgers' bid landed, after being washed through baseball's accounting -- about $460 million. Not $500 million. Not $600 million. Not close to $700 million.

Still the biggest contract in baseball history.

[Brock Landers]

I don’t think many fans thought of deferring 95% of a $70M annual salary. Deferring money…yeah it’s happened. But not to this scale and not as an absolute dollar level.

He makes 45m a year in endorsements. Plenty plenty of fuck you money. Make 8m a year in your sport, I’m not deferring much, I could spend that in a weekend…

[Danno]

Exactly, most players will not defer like this -- it's not a "problem" that needs fixing -- because most people aren't in the same position as he is.

[alias_rice]

fkn hell.

https://x.com/DanClarkSports/status/...454177419?s=20

no clue who this guy is but it sounds like the giants are going to have a tough time next year.

He’s unreliable and probably is just spitballing. I wouldn’t hang my hat on anything he says. If this offseason had taught us anything it’s that until Passan reports it, it’s just conjecture. Last night Bob Nightengale said that the Yankees are still the front runners, so who knows. Looks like he definitely is getting north of $300 million though. I’d say 45/45 between Yankees or Dodgers, with 10% chance someone like the Mets or RedSox snag him. $300/10 years is crazy money, but it seems like his ceiling is Pedro so I’m still all in on the Dodgers getting him.

How great would it be if the Dodgers get to Christmas with Shohei, Yamamoto, Arozarena and Glasnow?

[Brock Landers]

Glasgow? Jesus.

[Woodsy]

The text I received from a Dodger fan many of you know sums it up:

I'll miss Pepiot, but holy shit...Glasnow.

Hopefully he and Kershaw are on DL alternating months.

[Woodsy]

The Ohtani effect is real. Tickets are flying and secondary market is already stooped, even for Spring training.
Damn


I may have bought Rangers v. Dodgers tix in Camelback for my son and I because. Mookie, Ohtani, Seager and 23 vs 24 World Series Champions.

Suck it everyone else

[Woodsy]

Dodgers:
"All your base are belong to us!"

[alias_rice]

Dodgers:
"All your base are belong to us!"

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[Danno]

fuck the dodgers

[ex-powderbroker]

you don’t win the pennant in december. trust me.

[Bunion 2020]

With what they have spent they had better win the WS in 24.

[GiBo]

That's the beauty of it. They won't win the WS. Ask the Mets how buying your way the WS works.

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[alias_rice]

That's the beauty of it. They won't win the WS. Ask the Mets how buying your way the WS works.

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Nothing is guaranteed and the playoffs are a bit of a crapshoot, but please let’s not try to compare the Mets to the Dodgers. That’s laughable. And by the way the Dodgers 2024 payroll is still less than either of the New York teams.

[Danno]

And by the way the Dodgers 2024 payroll is still less than either of the New York teams.

my quick google shows the current payroll figures using only $2M for Ohtani and using all the money the Mets are still paying for guys they traded (where they ate salary to get prospects). So not sure we're talking apples to apples by saying the Dodgers payroll is less. If Ohtani's "real" value of around $46M is used, and the Mets payroll for the guys actually on their roster is used, pretty sure the Dodgers are quite a bit higher. An argument could be made for either comparison.

But in any event, I'm not complaining about the salary figures, I am saying fuck teh Dodgers because Dodgers. And fuck the Yankees too while we're at it.

[half-fast]

A 25 year old pitcher who’s never pitched in the majors and a two way player coming off his second Tommy John (or whatever they’re calling it) for a billion dollars. What could go wrong?

[alias_rice]

my quick google shows the current payroll figures using only $2M for Ohtani and using all the money the Mets are still paying for guys they traded (where they ate salary to get prospects). So not sure we're talking apples to apples by saying the Dodgers payroll is less. If Ohtani's "real" value of around $46M is used, and the Mets payroll for the guys actually on their roster is used, pretty sure the Dodgers are quite a bit higher. An argument could be made for either comparison.

But in any event, I'm not complaining about the salary figures, I am saying fuck teh Dodgers because Dodgers. And fuck the Yankees too while we're at it.

Things will still change with more signings and arbitration, but here is where the 2024 cbt currently stands.



Other than Freeman, the Dodgers pretty much sat out every free agent battle over the past few years and let Seager, Turner and Scherzer all get mega deals elsewhere, so that they could be in position to deliver this off season. Now they are pretty much set to be front runners for the next 5-7 years. The future is bright.






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[ex-powderbroker]

that’s projected so i assume it’s putting the yanks ahead of the dodgers when soto gets his raise?

who else is coming off the books for the dodgers? mookie is a deal but you still have a couple players due in arbitration and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of flexibility to get more guys if they want to stay under (not that they should).

but if they do, this is your team the next few years plus some relief hands, no?

[alias_rice]

that’s projected so i assume it’s putting the yanks ahead of the dodgers when soto gets his raise?

who else is coming off the books for the dodgers? mookie is a deal but you still have a couple players due in arbitration and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of flexibility to get more guys if they want to stay under (not that they should).

but if they do, this is your team the next few years plus some relief hands, no?

From what I can see they are about $15 million under the final tax threshold. So if the goal is to stay under that, they still have a little bit of wiggle room. But they seem more than willing to go all in, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they go over. They also have a strong farm system with several top rated prospects being blocked by current players. I would say there’s a 95% chance that Michael Busch, and Diego Cartaya get moved here in the next few weeks. Hopefully for Arozarena. Next year they have Joe Kelly, Blake Treinen, Walker Buehler, and Heyward coming off. I think that’s roughly 35,000,000, but they may try to re-sign Buehler. Next year they also get a free pitcher by the name of Shohei Ohtani that should help out the 2025 rotation.

But a core of Mookie, Freddie, Shohei, Yamamoto, Miller, and Glasnow ain’t too bad no matter what happens. And by the way Sheehan looks like he could be a stud as well.

[ex-powderbroker]

we’ll see. glasnow has thrown 100 innings a couple of times. they still need more pitching and the offense last year was a little flukey right (shohei helps there)?

if kershaw comes back that would add a lot of depth. must be really tempting for him with the new singings.

[alias_rice]

we’ll see. glasnow has thrown 100 innings a couple of times. they still need more pitching and the offense last year was a little flukey right (shohei helps there)?

if kershaw comes back that would add a lot of depth. must be really tempting for him with the new singings.

There’s still a fair amount of question marks on these guys’ overall health. And they definitely need another right handed bat in the outfield. I think it’s pretty much impossible to build a true “super team” in baseball. You are always going to have a few holes.

And yeah, I can’t see Kershaw not coming back to get his 3,000 K’s and make one more run. If he’s healthy enough to pitch, he’ll be a Dodger.