23/24 WYDAHO * " Le Tits now " * JH, GT, SK, KC, PC...

[Ski220]

Wasn’t quite the day we were expecting.
But it was pretty darn good.
Staying safe and skiing some soft powder.





I often give JHMR a hard time,
but some of the nicest, friendliest people work here.
A big thank you to the parking attendants, lifties and ski patrol.

[Djongo Unchained]

Well, I just finally made it back to MT for the winter, but I think the right move is to head right back down to Driggs tonight and hit Targhee THURS am and burn one up on my Mountain Collective pass. Mango jacket, black pants, Moment wildcats, early shift, give a shout! T

If you make this trek, it's gonna be worth every white knuckle moment.

It is nuking at the 'ghee right now.
If I had a pass over there, I'd be getting first tracks.
Fuck yeah.

3" in the last 2 hours in Chief Joe bowl.

[schindlerpiste]

Is anyone aware of a shop that will rent someone boots only? A buddy of mine will be in Jackson with skis, but no boots.

[kokomas]

Anybody local got an STH brake in around 118mm wide they will trade for beer?

Also anyone know if metal grip comes in sheets? Could use a couple square inches if you have some, figuring it will be easier than trying to melt the cord stuff. It's a hella core shot, ripped the letter right out of my Katana base

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[babybear]

Babybear - I gots sumpin for yas.

Copy that. back to village life this weekend since I was blacked out last weekend
The place is going to look different from when I was there 10 days ago

It's 40* warmer at my house than it was two days ago. Not surprised to see this from WYDOT:
Attachment 483389

blerg
do you think this warm spell may crush the offending layer since it is still fairly shallow? or just make it a heavier loading?

Ski220 and wstdeep- hope to bump into you guys soon too- welcome back to you both

Kokomas- hope the ski damage didn't damage you too

[upallnight]

C
blerg
do you think this warm spell may crush the offending layer since it is still fairly shallow? or just make it a heavier loading?

you didn't ask me, but as I was sweating (it was +30F today vs -10F when I was touring a couple days ago!) I was thinking about how the heavier, denser snow has (obviously) greater mass, and therefore a possibility of crushing some offending crystals.

That said, on some aspects & elevations, we have a problem of more than just a few cm of buried surface hoar.

In my tour today I actually observed greater stability that I've been seeing — but that is very aspect-/elevation-/location-dependent. I'd certainly want to be confident in my decision-making before skiing something where death is the likely consequence if I'm wrong.

As a tangent.... what's up with all the talk of "unprecedented" and "historic" and such? Seems a leeeeetle alarmist. And the quote in the news about "it's a good time to play pickleball"?

Raises a question for me of whether the purpose of the avalanche report is to provide data or to scare people (as a means of saving lives). Not saying I know the answer for that or that the answer hasn't shifted — though the general talk of me and my ski partners is that the avy report has been of less and less use to us. That's unfortunate.

Seems like people are staying off of the (bold/stupid depending on your POV) stuff that normally gets hit on a clear day, so I'd wager there is an undeniable effect of keeping the masses reined in.

Is that the point? Perhaps.

Warm temps, creamy untracked pow. Tight trees were a super delight on a surfy reverse/reverse ski. Even got a smile out of my serious friend. (No goggle-skiing... super flat light EOD.)

[schwerty]

Hey UAN ! Love the shots…always. Cool to see some folks I know on the other side of your lens here and there.
I also found the pickleball comment interesting. But I get it having been in those shoes many moons ago. Had some great skiing today. Pickleball does sound fun though.

On another note I’ll be out at the village Saturday if anyone is meeting up for the 11am Casper gig. Third lift rides of the year for me. Time to change that situation.

[homemadesalsa]

Hey UAN ! Love the shots…always. Cool to see some folks I know on the other side of your lens here and there.
I also found the pickleball comment interesting. But I get it having been in those shoes many moons ago. Had some great skiing today. Pickleball does sound fun though.

On another note I’ll be out at the village Saturday if anyone is meeting up for the 11am Casper gig. Third lift rides of the year for me. Time to change that situation.

I will pass on your comments to the forecast team. I do know that Frank had just investigated the Prater Canyon fatality, so he might have a bit of shell shock, a bit of moral imperative. The new wet heavy slab CAN crush those facets by adding weight and diminishing the temperature gradient (plus, as you say, it's 40* warmer haha), but we gotta let those slabs settle, not trigger them while snowpack is adjuto new load. I'm teaching a season-long Rec 2 right now- what a great time to be studying a volatile snowpack.

Also heard that WYDOT put 6-8' on the road at Glory and 4-5' at Twin, then Beaver Slide put 2' on the road naturally. Hooray for the RACS (remote avalanche control systems)!

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[Phall]

Anybody local got an STH brake in around 118mm wide they will trade for beer?

Also anyone know if metal grip comes in sheets? Could use a couple square inches if you have some, figuring it will be easier than trying to melt the cord stuff. It's a hella core shot, ripped the letter right out of my Katana base

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I think these are the same as OG Salomon 916 metal bindings right? I can probably scrounge up 4 arms that will work and mail them off tomorrow or Monday.


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[kokomas]

I think these are the same as OG Salomon 916 metal bindings right? I can probably scrounge up 4 arms that will work and mail them off tomorrow or Monday.


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Thanks for the offer. This is what it looks like ( two metal pins broke loose now I can't get it to spring load). I tried my 914 brakes and they were slightly off; I'm guessing the 916s won't work either unfort

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[upallnight]

Hey UAN ! Love the shots…always. Cool to see some folks I know on the other side of your lens here and there.
I also found the pickleball comment interesting. But I get it having been in those shoes many moons ago. Had some great skiing today. Pickleball does sound fun though.

Thank you! Overlapping circles!

Pickleball may be fun but it doesn't really have any business in an avy report or other commentary, IMO. We are not at "unprecedented" times, nor are we even at the highest rating.

I will pass on your comments to the forecast team. I do know that Frank had just investigated the Prater Canyon fatality, so he might have a bit of shell shock, a bit of moral imperative. The new wet heavy slab CAN crush those facets by adding weight and diminishing the temperature gradient (plus, as you say, it's 40* warmer haha), but we gotta let those slabs settle, not trigger them while snowpack is adjuto new load. I'm teaching a season-long Rec 2 right now- what a great time to be studying a volatile snowpack.

Also heard that WYDOT put 6-8' on the road at Glory and 4-5' at Twin, then Beaver Slide put 2' on the road naturally. Hooray for the RACS (remote avalanche control systems)!

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The commentary has been pretty consistent even prior to the fatality, and it was getting brought up more and more last year as well.

The article in the weekly referenced an observation made by someone who doesn't live here and (literally) just arrived in town <24h prior. The overly dramatic observation got picked up/repeated. The more things like that get repeated, the more they are accepted as fact. I know the touring party personally. The most fearful person wrote about "unprecedented times", and how afraid everyone was, when (a) the particular slide was actually predicted by a member of the party and (b) there was never any intent to ski that terrain that slid anyway.

Feels like we are living in a culture where everything is taken to the extreme. My worry is that in so doing we actually DEsensitize people in the long-term, even if we cause an abundance of caution in the short term.

The bottom line for me is that I really don't know who the audience is for the report any more. My touring partner today lamented the fact of what used to make it unique and informative, and now it is more preachy. The net effect is a notable number of people are actually tuning it out. I find that sad.

In the midst of scaring the hell out of people — I think — there needs to be some room for the fact that there were plenty of ways to have an amazing and safe (safe is a relative term in the backcountry) day of skiing. Advising people to play pickleball seems like a recipe for not being taken seriously judging by the number of people that independently contacted me about that comment.

For whatever it is worth, I'm a longtime (financial) supporter of the forecast/avy center, and these days I just mostly check weather on my own.

YMMV — and probably does. What do I know?

I also freely accept that I may no longer be a target audience for the report (though I'd like to think that I should be). And IF (that is an *if*) the goal is simply to save lives, then scare tactics may be most helpful.

Personally I'm interested in neutral presentation of data. I don't need a haiku about avoiding terrain >25*.

I'm sure some others LOVE it (for real!), and I can admit my sentiments may be in the minority. That said, I know I am ABSOLUTELY not alone. Lots of folks in the know tuning out.

[zion zig zag]

^^^^This is the EXACT complaint that people started having against the UAC a few years ago (5-6?) with some staff changes. I know some people still have a problem with it. I may have noticed originally, but I don’t think I do anymore as I’m just there for facts and data and kind of ignore that part of the forecast.

I have the same questions as you, is the scare tactic effective, or do people start to tune it out? I also know that the forecast blurb is posted at various gates to the bc around the Wasatch and maybe that blurb is all the tourist from Massachusetts is going to read while he contemplates leaving the resort for that sweet bc pow. If that very casual user is the target audience of that part of the forecast, then maybe it’s the right approach? I don’t have to wring hands with that decision and I think it’s a heavy job.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Yeah dudes, it is an issue. It seems the CAIC does a good job at walking the line between simply providing a forecast that can be hard for certain users to digest and being overly dramatic. I think one of the biggest challenges is obs submitted by anyone.

I think its a hard task to get right. It comes back to the objective. Is it the job of the daily bulletin to influence decision making or not?

I'll start reading the Teton and UAC forecasts more often to see what ya'll are talking about.

[crashidy]

As someone who comes down there annually from the Canadian rockies i often read the reports on the regular. The same thing has happened up here previously (overt drama in the reports). However it seems we have gone pack to a different standard. There is the "report" sections which is a bit subjective , the "details" section and a "problems" section. I generally skip to the details and search our data such as pits and layers of concern.

From an outside perspective the tetons are normally a ski anything no thought process from what i'e observed over the last 15 plus years of skiing there. It is not uncommon to have the most bomber snowpack there. When you throw in a couple touchy layers, and you have alot of experience with stable snow packs and none with unstable , i think this is where the current forecast is directed.

Same thing with the tetons forecast, I find my self looking through the data for snow pits and observations that way. I generally think of avy reports as lowest common denominator and try and pull the data you need from it.

Ill be down in driggs for a week feb 19th to 25..targhee, the hole and a day or two in teh pass.

[Norseman]

Thank you! Overlapping circles!

Pickleball may be fun but it doesn't really have any business in an avy report or other commentary, IMO. We are not at "unprecedented" times, nor are we even at the highest rating.


The commentary has been pretty consistent even prior to the fatality, and it was getting brought up more and more last year as well.

The article in the weekly referenced an observation made by someone who doesn't live here and (literally) just arrived in town <24h prior. The overly dramatic observation got picked up/repeated. The more things like that get repeated, the more they are accepted as fact. I know the touring party personally. The most fearful person wrote about "unprecedented times", and how afraid everyone was, when (a) the particular slide was actually predicted by a member of the party and (b) there was never any intent to ski that terrain that slid anyway.

Feels like we are living in a culture where everything is taken to the extreme. My worry is that in so doing we actually DEsensitize people in the long-term, even if we cause an abundance of caution in the short term.

The bottom line for me is that I really don't know who the audience is for the report any more. My touring partner today lamented the fact of what used to make it unique and informative, and now it is more preachy. The net effect is a notable number of people are actually tuning it out. I find that sad.

In the midst of scaring the hell out of people — I think — there needs to be some room for the fact that there were plenty of ways to have an amazing and safe (safe is a relative term in the backcountry) day of skiing. Advising people to play pickleball seems like a recipe for not being taken seriously judging by the number of people that independently contacted me about that comment.

For whatever it is worth, I'm a longtime (financial) supporter of the forecast/avy center, and these days I just mostly check weather on my own.

YMMV — and probably does. What do I know?

I also freely accept that I may no longer be a target audience for the report (though I'd like to think that I should be). And IF (that is an *if*) the goal is simply to save lives, then scare tactics may be most helpful.

Personally I'm interested in neutral presentation of data. I don't need a haiku about avoiding terrain >25*.

I'm sure some others LOVE it (for real!), and I can admit my sentiments may be in the minority. That said, I know I am ABSOLUTELY not alone. Lots of folks in the know tuning out.

Great post.

[homemadesalsa]

Hey it would be great if you all could send comments to the BTAC about the forecast. New team and director are working on the product. Am pretty certain that we will stick to the NAC platform, which is being worked on as well. Suggestions are (hopefully) helpful. https://bridgertetonavalanchecenter.org/contact-us/

[North]

Good discussion. I'm a CBAC homer (an exceptionally biased one at that), but I think they do it better than anyone else. I know from firsthand conversations that they are constantly wary of overselling the danger, for fear of losing the trust of the community. They really do lose sleep over this. I can't speak to the efforts of other forecast centers, but my guess is that they do not take it lightly either.

I was under the impression that the Special Avalanche Bulletin is the preferred tool for introducing less scientific warnings into the forecast. Watches and Warnings are dictated solely by the conditions (AFAIK). The SAB is there to deploy when human factors are expected to be in play (holiday weekend, clearing weather after big storm, etc., uncommon conditions for the area that don't meet the level of a warning but may catch people off guard.)

[homemadesalsa]

Plus I want to note that many of you are what we call "Tier 3" users, so of course you want to go beyond the forecast Bottom Line Forecasts. Best pages for Tier 3 folks are the ones deeper in the forecast site like the Snowpack Tracker, where you can see how much SWE came in 24hrs/ how much wind/ temps, plus all the avalanche activity in the rose:


Here's the basis of the modern avalanche forecast, direct from the Conceptual Model of Avalanche Hazard (https://link.springer.com/article/10...069-017-3070-5
and the critical graphs:


Now back to our regularly scheduled stoke:

[HobieTony]

If you make this trek, it's gonna be worth every white knuckle moment.

It is nuking at the 'ghee right now.
If I had a pass over there, I'd be getting first tracks.
Fuck yeah.

3" in the last 2 hours in Chief Joe bowl.

To follow up, my timing was amazing. 4 hours of mostly clear roads and no snow, then started dumping when I rolled into Driggs. Early wake, 2nd chair led to Milk Bottle conditions at the top, accidentally ended up at Blackfoot, which was unpopulated and amazing. Met some locals, my age-ish and moving well, worked our way back over to Sac lift to find the rope still up to the Colter lift. A short 10 minutes later, I chose the right end of the rope at the drop, and got in the first group up Colter. Top to bottom centerpunch of what must have been Eleanor to Tanglefoot. Spent by noon, got sunshine and clear roads for the drive back. Really good day!

[Djongo Unchained]

^^^

Nice Tony. Way to get after it. That could be a sketchballs drive.

Stoked when it's a cakewalk all the way to the stoplight in Driggs, eh?

Blackfoot can be the deepest loop on that place. And sometimes big ass whoop de dos and waves.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sweet pics, HMS. Looks like P'sD on the upside down popcorn ceiling looking wind blast there.
Dog Days of January. That's a beaut.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

' a ski anything, no thought process '.

hmmmmm....

[new yabyum]

Plus I want to note that many of you are what we call "Tier 3" users, so of course you want to go beyond the forecast Bottom Line Forecasts. Best pages for Tier 3 folks are the ones deeper in the forecast site like the Snowpack Tracker, where you can see how much SWE came in 24hrs/ how much wind/ temps, plus all the avalanche activity in the rose:


Here's the basis of the modern avalanche forecast, direct from the Conceptual Model of Avalanche Hazard (https://link.springer.com/article/10...069-017-3070-5
and the critical graphs:


Now back to our regularly scheduled stoke:

Lynn, Thanks for the keys to tier 3!

[kokomas]

Hope no one was hurt, buddy sent crown pic from Teton lift

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[NBABUCKS1]

holy shit that's a pretty crazy place for that to happen? that's also a massive crown.

[upallnight]

Skiing's a silly and inherently selfish activity and also really fun.



Another warm day = some signs of strengthening in the 'pack (at least where I was... ymmv based on aspect, elevation, zone — use your brain). No gloves, no jacket, no hat uphill walking.

[The Suit]

Hope no one was hurt, buddy sent crown pic from Teton lift

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Yikes! Is that the top of Ashley Ridge?