Ukraine

[oldnew_guy]

As Ukraine enters a new phase of the war the main takeaway is not whether Bakhmut stands or falls (they probably should have let it fall sooner as the attrition rate became more equal between the two sides) but that Russia's winter offensive campaign only achieved minor success at considerable cost.

Ukraine has shown it can defend a 600+ mile long front without committing its newly formed combat units made up of western trained / western equipped operational reserves. Ukraine now has somewhere between 15-20 fresh brigades in reserve for a counteroffensive.

So it's a game of cat and mouse. Russia also has large numbers of uncommitted forces. Ideally, from Ukraine's perspective, Russia will make the first move committing its reserves for its own offensive that gets bogged down allowing Ukraine to launch a counteroffensive against an even further depleted Russian military.

Any info on the estimated losses for Ukraine?

Biden's comment about 100,000 in Bakhmut on the Russian side is a bit of a shocker.

[MultiVerse]

There are wide discrepancies between reported Ukrainian casualty rates. Pentagon estimates are higher compared with European intelligence estimates. The lower European estimates appear to be more accurate. Over the winter Ukraine's attrition rate dropped significantly from 1:12, to possibly as low as 1:2 - 1:1 in Ukraine's favor so maybe somewhere between 20-40K since December versus 100K for Russia.

[mcphee]

Btw. I always confuse you with mcski and forget who I argued with. [emoji3]

Just remember that I’m a baby flipping you off

[Cono Este]

^^^ Faux outrage, we have been living under the specter of nuclear extermination my entire life and then some.

Meanwhile:

Bunion has decided for everyone, the threat of nuclear annihilation is not real. He’s bored with it.

He’s also watched Capricorn 1 a 100 times and thinks the Russians put a guy in the Oval Office back in 2016.

[Bunion 2020]

Well bless your black heart.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Russia had 45 million military aged males at the start of this. They can do it again.

Yes, but there are very real costs in trying to pull a large portion of them into battle:



https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/...sR_NcRK2VkCfkg

[MultiVerse]

Russian soldiers fighting for Ukraine are currently in the process of liberating Russian territory from the Kremlin starting in Belgorod... Ukraine denies sending little green men into Russia.

[J. Barron DeJong]

“In all honesty, I have covered many wars in several decades and I can say that I haven't seen in a long time a more hysteric way to declare "victory" as we see now around Bakhmut. And I'm not even into the semantics whether Russians hold 95%, 98% or 100%. The very fact that they phrase it that way is hilarious in its own.

As I have mentioned already few days ago, Russians do not intend to move any further, or more precisely, they are not capable to move any further, which simply begs the question what was this all about. What strategic value offers Bakhmut in itself? The answer is simple. None. This fact was even stated by Prigozhin, Strelkov and others. It is a military travesty, aiming only for political games of the involved Russian warlords.


The Ukrainian strategy on the other side has been coherent and quite clear. First, to deny Russians entry to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, secondly, bind Russian forces and prepare for their counteroffensive and, third, in the process decimating their ranks, which - when reflecting 100,000 Russian casualties - they have achieved with flying colors. The only threat was a potential encirclement of Bakhmut with the subsequent destruction of the Ukrainian armies in it, but that was averted and Russians were forced to run against the heaviest fortification, a stupidity in itself and exactly how Ukrainian strategist can ask for.


Ukrainians have even achieved additional tactical advantages by binding additional Russian forces in Bakhmut. Russians were so obsessed with Bakhmut that they were depleting lines and more importantly ammunition in Kreminna, Svatove, Avdiivka and Vuhledar. Literally every single one of those named areas ended in total disasters. Especially, Vuhledar can be called an epic fail.


However, when you look at the numbers than you can see that Bakhmut was actually the worst sector for Russians, because for the sake of just "staying in this area" it makes literally no difference whether you stay inside Bakhmut or 7km more to the East, because this is their pathetic "progress" in almost 10 months. It is however a complete difference when you have those 100,000 men and millions of artillery shells at your disposal. Even some Russians are starting to realize this.


You do not have to take my word, the developments in battlefield will say this in the clearest language. History is full of examples where political lunatics forced their military leaders into steps which any sane military commander would never have done. The terms "pyrrhic victory, second Stalingrad etc." have been used more than once. Maybe we will even add "Bakhmut victory" to the books. It certainly deserves a place in military idiocy.”

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/16...sR_NcRK2VkCfkg

[Bunion 2020]

the_finge

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Bunion has decided for everyone, the threat of nuclear annihilation is not real. He’s bored with it.

He’s also watched Capricorn 1 a 100 times and thinks the Russians put a guy in the Oval Office back in 2016.

Is it because English is your second language that you come to the conclusions that you do? No one reading those posts would ever come to the conclusions that you do. It’s truly bizarre


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[Meconium]

Getting a bit nutty in Belgorod

[mcphee]

No one reading those posts would ever come to the conclusions that you do. It’s truly bizarre

It’s not though. Read his posts through a fog of cocaine, alcohol, and an overinflated sense of self worth through no actual substantive contributions to society and all his shit makes sense.

[alpinevibes]

Getting a bit nutty in Belgorod

Wild stuff and they've apparently covered some ground. We'll see what response shows [can show] up and how the Russian people will feel about it's military turning on its own people, albeit those labeled traitors.

I enjoyed this twofer from last week: https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/16...C8vd6Q_YMuAAAA Boom goes the dynamite!

[tgapp]

Getting a bit nutty in Belgorod

What do you mean? Belgorod is part of Ukraine. Sounds like some Russian separatists just restoring Belgorod to its proper owner. Nothing to see here. Where did they get their tanks? Who can say.

Also this tweet kills me:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/st...027287043?s=20

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[subtle plague]

It’s not though. Read his posts through a fog of cocaine, alcohol, and an overinflated sense of self worth through no actual substantive contributions to society and all his shit makes sense.

Waiter: I'd like to have 2 of these "fog of cocaine and alcohol" please.

They go along well with my cheap girlfriends.

[Meconium]

What do you mean?

Nutty wasn't the best word choice. You are more concise

edit, changed my mind. I'll stick with nutty for now.

[mcphee]

Waiter: I'd like to have 2 of these "fog of cocaine and alcohol" please.

They go along well with my cheap girlfriends.

Cheap girlfriends, expensive ex-wife, door to door supplemental insurance sales in East STL. We should all be listening to him more intently and showing him some dang respect.

[ex-powderbroker]

who else knows about colloidal silver here?

[subtle plague]

who else knows about colloidal silver here?

Rhetorical question? Benny before his exit.
So that leaves leroy. I mean ...he knows everything.

[neufox47]

If Russia manages to hold Bakhmut longer than it took to take it, I would consider that a Russian success.

For purposes of this evaluation, I'll be generous and use the beginning of August last year (2022) to now as the battle's duration- about 300 days.

We shall see...

Wagner announced Bakhmut victory just in time to “hand it over” to Russia Regular Army, then for it to get taken back by Ukraine. It’s almost comical how silly it all is.

[Toadman]

BPR (Belgorod People's Republic) is crushing it in Belgorod about now. Time to declare independence.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...65054071599104

[J. Barron DeJong]

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/...sR_NcRK2VkCfkg

[4matic]

Ukraine can feed Russian rebels all that captured Russian armament; can’t cry NATO..

[tgapp]

Ukraine can feed Russian rebels all that captured Russian armament; can’t cry NATO..

Whose to say that Ukraine is feeding them anything? They could just have bought all their stuff at Russian milsurp stores. Maybe they aren't even "backed" by Ukraine, maybe this is just a case of people self-organizing and rising up against an oppressive and tyrannical regime. How dare you accuse Ukraine!

- what pretty much every Western media outlet said but about the LPR/DPR and Russia's support back in 2014

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[billyk]

Whose to say that Ukraine is feeding them anything? They could just have bought all their stuff at Russian milsurp stores. Maybe they aren't even "backed" by Ukraine, maybe this is just a case of people self-organizing and rising up against an oppressive and tyrannical regime. How dare you accuse Ukraine!

- what pretty much every Western media outlet said but about the LPR/DPR and Russia's support back in 2014

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

According to the reports I read, the tank and apcs have Ukrainian markings (a cross iirc). So most likely they at least aquired them on the Ukrainian side of the border.

I can’t imagine these guys lasting very long over there, but who knows.