Wildfire 2022

[neufox47]

Anyone able to explain how Shasta and Orroville are so low after the storms we had this year? I’d of thought they would have collected more.


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[old goat]

Anyone able to explain how Shasta and Orroville are so low after the storms we had this year? I’d of thought they would have collected more.


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Because total precipitation for this season and the two previous are all well below normal.

[LongShortLong]

Fortunately, there's still the snowmelt season. Unfortunately, there isn't much snow and the ground is plenty dry to absorb most of it.

Methinks there's also a problem with the runoff models, as they over predict runoff in low snow years. My guess is they assume a linear relationship between snowpack depth and runoff. I also guess that a more accurate model would assume the first water inches get absorbed locally, and then the rest runs off. Also, in a dry year, the atmosphere will be drier, and hence will steal more water (in a wet year, the wet ground upwind wets the air). Where's our desert climate guy?

[old goat]

Fortunately, there's still the snowmelt season. Unfortunately, there isn't much snow and the ground is plenty dry to absorb most of it.

Methinks there's also a problem with the runoff models, as they over predict runoff in low snow years. My guess is they assume a linear relationship between snowpack depth and runoff. I also guess that a more accurate model would assume the first water inches get absorbed locally, and then the rest runs off. Also, in a dry year, the atmosphere will be drier, and hence will steal more water (in a wet year, the wet ground upwind wets the air). Where's our desert climate guy?

Also increased temps increase evaporation from reservoirs. Burned over forest allows more evaporation of the snow pack.
Meanwhile I'm looking out the window at a full blown blizzard, although when it's over I think it will have minimal effect on water storage.

[alpinevibes]

Wind, smoke, dust and dust on snow... https://www.wildsnow.com/31553/frida...he-day-albedo/

In addition to the influence of climate change, dust-on-snow events can have substantial effects. Because of the reduction of snow surface albedo (reflectance), these events can: advance snowmelt timing up to 50 days earlier; enhance snowmelt runoff intensity; and decrease snowmelt yields. The result is peak runoff is on average three weeks earlier than normal, with an estimated 5% reduction of annual streamflow in the Colorado River Basin. The movement of dust around the West has increased 300% in the last two decades alone with no signs of abating.

[LongShortLong]

Wow. Do they know where all the dust is from? Just windier? New type of land use, or increased use? Positive feed back? (drier->less plants/cryptocrust->more dust->less snow->drier)

[old goat]

Wow. Do they know where all the dust is from? Just windier? New type of land use, or increased use? Positive feed back? (drier->less plants/cryptocrust->more dust->less snow->drier)

Biggest cause is likely drought. I did find a record of average and average maximum wind speeds for the Coachella Valley in CA and it doesn't seem to be getting windier there. I don't know about the Colorado Basin.
https://desertweather.com/windsummary.php
And maybe more burned over forest>more ash.

[bodywhomper]

Speaking of drought, Colorado river basin, and the Coachella valley, it’s been a few years, but I’m still blown away from learning about the ancient Lake Cahuilla, up to 2,200 sq miles, existed for ~2,000 years, finally disappeared in 1560. Caused by sediment-based diversion of the CO river: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Cahuilla

Neofox (and others in Placer Co), there’s a prescribed burn association starting in Placer Co, that will likely focus on teaching and gathering resources to assist property owners to conduct safe low intensity understory burns to reduce surface fuels and improve the ecosystems of the area. I believe it’ll be organized through the RCD. It will be a really great resource.

[Norseman]

come ski the volcanoes this summer to escape the smoky southwest. corn hasn't really even started 'cause it's still snowing. should be a long touring season.

[MakersTeleMark]

Speaking of drought, Colorado river basin, and the Coachella valley, it’s been a few years, but I’m still blown away from learning about the ancient Lake Cahuilla, up to 2,200 sq miles, existed for ~2,000 years, finally disappeared in 1560. Caused by sediment-based diversion of the CO river: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Cahuilla

Neofox (and others in Placer Co), there’s a prescribed burn association starting in Placer Co, that will likely focus on teaching and gathering resources to assist property owners to conduct safe low intensity understory burns to reduce surface fuels and improve the ecosystems of the area. I believe it’ll be organized through the RCD. It will be a really great resource.

Have you been to the Salton Sea lately? Oooff.

[Meadow Skipper]

That Calf Canyon/Hermit Peak fire in northern NM is just plain kicking ass today.

[chaka]

That Calf Canyon/Hermit Peak fire in northern NM is just plain kicking ass today.

Where is the pic taken from? trying to get my bearings, thanks.

[leroy jenkins]

Things look pretty dire going into the season.

Attachment 413953

Attachment 413954

So I know this is a thread about fires and fire season, but having seen these maps before, and seeing them here, I have to wonder, how much worse does this drought have to get, or how much longer does it have to go on until we are seeing substantial non fire related impacts to things like agriculture, causing food shortages etc?

So far its pretty much been fires, which despite how bad they are, I am grateful to still be able to buy avacados and not having it breaking the American economy. Each year I get a little bit more worried but this year looking at the reservoirs in Coloradbro already being so low, this year that worry feels more like a real thing. Also, the long touted filling of the Colorado river basin's reservoirs with silt is pretty alarming as well, not only are the ones I'm seeing low, they all look a lot more full of sediment than I would hope.

Thoughts? I'd be super curious to read any related articles if anyone has any.



Also, it hasn't been said yet, but while the above maps show that its bad, if you see the world maps showing the same data, you see that not only is our drought bad, its been the worst in the entire world for years, and looks a lot more dire in comparison to the rest of the world. That also, selfishly, makes me worry for our country, although glad for everyone else. If anyone wants to search those world drought/temperature maps, I cant remember what its called off the top of my head, but whatever the British version of NOAA is has published them.

We should be paying the firefighters a fuck of a lot more. Theres room in the federal budget for that if theres room to give ukraine like a trillion dollars.

[MakersTeleMark]

The allocated raises that have been approved haven't even been implemented. Fucked system is fucked.

[Meadow Skipper]

Where is the pic taken from? trying to get my bearings, thanks.

Out near the El Dorado subdivision, looking NNE toward Las Vegas NM.

These ones were taken from NM 599 later in the day looking ENE over the Sangres.

[Meadow Skipper]

We should be paying the firefighters a fuck of a lot more. Theres room in the federal budget for that if theres room to give ukraine like a trillion dollars.

The problem isn’t the money, the problem is the bureaucracy.

The allocated raises that have been approved haven't even been implemented. Fucked system is fucked.

Color me unsurprised.

[ill-advised strategy]

Did you guys see the footage of 10,000 sq ft mansions torching in Laguna Niguel yesterday?

Crazy. I was following the helicopter footage of burning mansions along with google earth, could match them up because all their pools had a different shape….

[ill-advised strategy]

Ripping some of that local stronghold country south of Anglo Fire.
Maybe one of my successors will have to mop up around the smoldering remains of my first motorcycle, stolen by locals in Guadalupita back in the day.

Fucking thieves, may their garage explode and all their tools melt.

Stay safe out there, it’s on.

[bodywhomper]

For those that are interested, zeke Lunder is “covering” the hermit peak fire in NM, with his remote sensing tools and commentary. Mostly on Twitter.

[ill-advised strategy]

Has he tweeted about any smoldering 1978 hondas?

[Meadow Skipper]

Has he tweeted about any smoldering 1978 hondas?

. I think of you whenever I ride thru Mora. I don’t stop.

[oldnew_guy]

The problem isn’t the money, the problem is the bureaucracy.


Color me unsurprised.

You probably have better insight, but it sure seems like the issue is money because the entire USFS is mis-classified into the wrong GS levels.

Maybe not the entry level, but hotshot superintendents can’t be brought in from the private sector and have a huge knowledge and skill base that would seem to classify them as 13’s in my mind.

[alpinevibes]

The Cooks Peak fire in Ocate (N NM) has now jumped to 20,000ac and 0% contained. My buddy in ABQ texted me Monday morning that the fire had started the night before, right as they were leaving their cabin about a mile west of the origin. As of now it's grown North and East and I think their cabin is still ok, but it's super super close. They got married right there last June; we went and spent a couple nights. Beautiful area and totally insane to think it's all just gone.

And for any former Boy Scouts - this one is torching north, straight towards Philmont. It's probably 5mi south of their property now. Shitty. I was there in 2001...

Welp... Cook's Peak continued to burn north and their cabin seems ok for the moment. Not totally out of the woods with the wind and conditions, but its at 97% percent.

The main problem now is that the Hermits/Calf Canyon fire is so huge and it's growing north, only 10-15mi away and coming their direction...

[Meadow Skipper]

You probably have better insight, but it sure seems like the issue is money because the entire USFS is mis-classified into the wrong GS levels.

Maybe not the entry level, but hotshot superintendents can’t be brought in from the private sector and have a huge knowledge and skill base that would seem to classify them as 13’s in my mind.

In my perspective, that’s the bureaucracy at work. Back when I was in the program I ran into really serious resistance walls thrown up by agency HR and OPM to prevent upgrades based on responsibilities, duties, etc. IOW, just-say-no HR and OPM people blocked upgrades, in spite of my breaking down PDs* against their algorithms for GS grade levels. They mis-classified firefighters on purpose.

Don’t get me started.

* PD=position description.

[oldnew_guy]

In my perspective, that’s the bureaucracy at work. Back when I was in the program I ran into really serious resistance walls thrown up by agency HR and OPM to prevent upgrades based on responsibilities, duties, etc. IOW, just-say-no HR and OPM people blocked upgrades, in spite of my breaking down PDs* against their algorithms for GS grade levels. They mis-classified firefighters on purpose.

Don’t get me started.

* PD=position description.

Yeah, that’s sort of what I watched my boss deal with trying to justify upgrades from GS 6 to GS 6/7 for squad leader type positions. I think HR and OPM got a piece of his soul over the years he spent on that one.

That certainly seems to match what some folks associated with the unions are saying in the WFT comments -> they have switched to going direct with DOL and OPM on some of their lobbying efforts.