Electric car thread

[dunfree]

We’re at an interesting turning point in time; where cost of ownership is at a tipping point. I bet in a few years you are going to have to be allergic to money to buy a gasser as a grocery getter / local commuter.

I think that prediction was made 10 years ago here too, and now EVs are about 1% of total US registered light vehicles. At 2022 sale level you’d replace the entire vehicle fleet in ~20years, but only with 100% adoption in new vehicles

[J. Barron DeJong]

I think that prediction was made 10 years ago here too, and now EVs are about 1% of total US registered light vehicles. At 2022 sale level you’d replace the entire vehicle fleet in ~20years, but only with 100% adoption in new vehicles

I don’t think sales are going to remain at 2022 levels:

[Ted Striker]

That seems like a list of just the most popular vehicles? Do you have one where it breaks it down as deaths/mile driven?

No. I wasn't even really looking for info. Just thought it was amusing that literally the first thing on google refutes CS's "physics"

[dunfree]

I don’t think sales are going to remain at 2022 levels:

I was talking total sales, any huge increase will take massive investment.

US light vehicle sales 2022 ~14 million units
Total US light vehicle fleet 2022 ~280 million

Global vehicle production/sales was like 80 million units last year +- on a fleet of 1.5 billion.

this is a kumquat to mandarin comparison but a 2012 Nissan Leaf is $7k, a 2012 Honda FIt about $10k. Which doesn’t seem a tipping point in consumer preferences yet.

[jono]

All else equal, the heavier vehicle has an advantage in a collision. And I say this as someone who much prefers driving small cars.

And all else equal a smaller car is harder to hit. Of course, having a bigger one does make it a little easier.

[nickwm21]

I’m interested in what shakes out with the used market, as it develops. I’m not a fan of buying new autos.

I think people are scared of used EVs due to battery replacement costs; I’ve seen articles quoting having to spend $5k-$20k on batteries at 150k miles to keep the EV running. I’m assuming that’s OEM stealership pricing… I’d hope an independent market of shops develop that will do off brand battery swaps for 1/2 price? It seems like there is money to be made there….


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[Ted Striker]

I remember when the 2nd gen Prius was released (the car that most people think is the first gen), the haters said the battery would need to be replaced at ____point in the future, at a cost of $3-4k. Not only did that never happen, but within a few years, you could buy a used battery from a cashed/totaled car for $300-400.

Similarly, I don't see too many battery replacements in the used EV market. They're just going to become the beaters, while the first owners move on to newer cars. For instance, my wife doesn't need a 300 mile range car, she doesn't drive that in a week. But something that could get scratched and dinged in the Costco parking lot, while skipping the gas pumps, that cost 1/3-1/4 of what it was new has a pretty good value equation (as long as they don't break it with software like old iphones)

[J. Barron DeJong]

And all else equal a smaller car is harder to hit. Of course, having a bigger one does make it a little easier.

Not going to disagree that avoiding an accident is best, and a smaller car may give a slight advantage there, but I’d like to see some numbers on that.

As far as safety is concerned, the frontal impact tests recreate hitting a similar sized vehicle, so a heavy vehicle has a more robust crash structure compared to a smaller vehicle.

And physics does matter. Conservation of momentum is real. In a head on collision between a heavy vehicle and a light vehicle, the light vehicle is going to end up moving backwards after impact, the heavy vehicle keeps going forward, i.e. the acceleration experienced by the smaller vehicle is higher which means it’s more likely that the occupants of the smaller vehicle are injured than in the larger vehicle; again, all else equal…

[jono]

The point was that both of these things are totally undeniable, and also hypothetical. The safety per mile addresses the net balance, whereas looking at one contributing factor and citing immutable laws is really only useful as a debate point.

[J. Barron DeJong]

The point was that both of these things are totally undeniable, and also hypothetical. The safety per mile addresses the net balance, whereas looking at one contributing factor and citing immutable laws is really only useful as a debate point.

OK. Here you go:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorz...h=79faa763e31e

[californiagrown]

Not going to disagree that avoiding an accident is best, and a smaller car may give a slight advantage there, but I’d like to see some numbers on that.

As far as safety is concerned, the frontal impact tests recreate hitting a similar sized vehicle, so a heavy vehicle has a more robust crash structure compared to a smaller vehicle.

And physics does matter. Conservation of momentum is real. In a head on collision between a heavy vehicle and a light vehicle, the light vehicle is going to end up moving backwards after impact, the heavy vehicle keeps going forward, i.e. the acceleration experienced by the smaller vehicle is higher which means it’s more likely that the occupants of the smaller vehicle are injured than in the larger vehicle; again, all else equal…

Yep. Its why i chuckle when certain people claim that those SMART cars fared better in crash tests than many other full size cars or SUVs. that may be true in a lab, but when a front left tire blows out at 60mph on a 2 lane highway and jerks you into the oncoming traffic, i sure as shit would rather be in a Yukon XL than a SMART car.

[dunfree]

Yep. Its why i chuckle when certain people claim that those SMART cars fared better in crash tests than many other full size cars or SUVs. that may be true in a lab, but when a front left tire blows out at 60mph on a 2 lane highway and jerks you into the oncoming traffic, i sure as shit would rather be in a Yukon XL than a SMART car.

SMART were designed as city cars - top speed is <85mph. But you can park 2 in the length of a Yukon xl. Having seen weirdos in Europe with huge U.S. pickups I wouldn’t want to live with one there either

[muted reborn]

Speaking of heavy vehicles, the EV Hummer weighs 9000 pounds and goes 0-60 in 3.3 seconds. As a (part-time) bike commuter I'm not looking forward to heavy + fast vehicles like the Hummer and other TBD trucks eventually taking over the roads. I'd guess deadly accidents are gonna go up as people all have unwieldily race-car like battering rams.

[Ted Striker]

They were right about the death race. Just got the year wrong.

[gravitylover]

OK. Here you go:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorz...h=79faa763e31e

This is what happens when a Challenger crashes into a CRV that runs a stop sign at 50+ mph. All 4 of us got out and walked away. The CEV flipped off the side of the road and landed in the woods.

[dunfree]

Speaking of heavy vehicles, the EV Hummer weighs 9000 pounds and goes 0-60 in 3.3 seconds. As a (part-time) bike commuter I'm not looking forward to heavy + fast vehicles like the Hummer and other TBD trucks eventually taking over the roads. I'd guess deadly accidents are gonna go up as people all have unwieldily race-car like battering rams.

don’t worry e-bikes and scooters should have speed governors for your protection

[SumJongGuy]

What's the latest beta on winter/cold weather EV range? Still seems like the achilles of EV utility to me.

[Ted Striker]

@JBDJ
Here is some real data from the NHTSA for 2019:
There were 3,258 fatal two-vehicle crashes each involving a passenger car and a light truck, which accounted for 27 percent of all fatal two-vehicle crashes (11,879) and 10 percent of all fatal crashes (33,244).

- When a passenger car and a light truck hit head-on, an occupant was 2.9 times more frequently killed in the passenger car than in the light truck.

- When the front of a passenger car hit the side of a light truck, an occupant was 1.6 times more frequently killed in the light truck than in the passenger car.

- When the front of a light truck hit the side of a passenger car, an occupant was 19.8 times more frequently killed in the passenger car than in the light truck.

So the crash data obviously supports the 'big object crushes smaller one' rule. But the human aspect can't be ignored. The single biggest variable is still the driver. But rather than fixing that, we're engaging in an arms race.

[Core Shot]

What's the latest beta on winter/cold weather EV range? Still seems like the achilles of EV utility to me.

https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/202...-exaggeration/

South Korea? Wtf. But yeah. Cold and EV don’t work.

[dunfree]

https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/202...-exaggeration/

South Korea? Wtf. But yeah. Cold and EV don’t work.

Most humans in the world don’t live where it’s cold

[BFD]

saw my first Rivian today. Looked like a toy. Wheel wells were packed solid with snow. Tires were rubbing. Not much clearance to clean them out. If someone were to hand me the keys I would of took the ford parked next to it.

[Slim Chance]

My experience with winter driving has been surprisingly good.. I drove 700 miles each way from Washington to SLC right before Christmas in temperatures from 0 degrees to the high teens in a model 3. Driving straight through took 13 hours both ways. The stops and self driving made for a very relaxing trip. It worked so well I’ll be taking it to Canada on a hut trip in February.

[gravitylover]

Figured since I finally found it I'd add one more pic of a Challenger taking out a CRV

[J. Barron DeJong]

@JBDJ
Here is some real data from the NHTSA for 2019:
There were 3,258 fatal two-vehicle crashes each involving a passenger car and a light truck, which accounted for 27 percent of all fatal two-vehicle crashes (11,879) and 10 percent of all fatal crashes (33,244).

- When a passenger car and a light truck hit head-on, an occupant was 2.9 times more frequently killed in the passenger car than in the light truck.

- When the front of a passenger car hit the side of a light truck, an occupant was 1.6 times more frequently killed in the light truck than in the passenger car.

- When the front of a light truck hit the side of a passenger car, an occupant was 19.8 times more frequently killed in the passenger car than in the light truck.

So the crash data obviously supports the 'big object crushes smaller one' rule. But the human aspect can't be ignored. The single biggest variable is still the driver. But rather than fixing that, we're engaging in an arms race.

My hope would be that people who learn that their big trucks are putting others at risk would downsize if possible. But the odds of that happening are about nil.

There’s no safety advantage if most everybody ends up in heavy vehicles. It’s just a shittier equilibrium.

[Beaver]

Cold and EV don’t work.

My personal experience refutes your internet "research."