4Runner/Tacoma alternatives?

[hafjell]

Something like 80+% of new cars, and a little more than half of the used cars on the market are financed. And the fed is doing their damnedest to reduce demand. I've been in a few car dealers over the last month or so, and have been casually quoted "excellent credit" rates on new cars start around 5%. Research tells me used car loans can be north of 8% and climbing. Guessing a good chunk of it is subprime too.

The Manheim wholesale used vehicle index is around 200 (steady drop every month from an all-time high of 236 in January). So if Bobby Stainless were in the midrange truck business, he could buy them at auction for less. Whether or not he's passing the savings along to you is, of course, another story.

Unless the manufacturers intentionally limit production (car forum conspiracy theorists say they already are), everything else is downward pressure on prices.

Great resource. Thanks. https://publish.manheim.com/en/servi...lue-index.html

[heckacali]

What does "200" mean though?

[Ted Striker]

I believe it's calculated in roughly the same way as the Consumer Price Index, but IIRC over a 24 month rolling average. If that assumption is correct 200 means today's price is double what it was during the base year, which was 1995.

A key difference between the CPI and Manheim's index is that the former is reactive, and the latter is predictive. Being the largest auto auction means what they can sell cars for become the de facto wholesale prices. And retail follows.

[whereiscarlos]

Alright, a couple questions for you used car gurus:

1. If we use the CPI in 1995 as the base year like the Mannheim index, we can figure out that today’s relative CPI is approx 195. If the current Mannheim index is 200, does this imply that used cars at auction are fairly priced right now (slightly overpriced if we want to get picky)?

2. Taking a look at the Mannheim index graph from 1995 to now, it looks like the index stayed around 115-125 for most years until Covid which would imply used cars were undervalued for that period. Is that correct or am I missing something? Having easy access to cheap loans certainly supports the theory.

Lastly, my apologies if what I’m saying is obvious to everyone else. Trying to better understand economics and how to find value in markets.

[Ted Striker]

Well, I'm not even remotely an economist. More of a 'guy with lifelong car problem'.

And, like I said, I'm making an assumption there. I don't really know the nuts and bolts of their math. You're definitely right about the cheap money, and new car pricing will clearly move the needle as well.

I'd also say that the depreciation curve was historically too steep. A new car doesn't really lose half its value the minute you drive it off the lot. On the supply side, I think fleet sales and the rental car fleet churn historically had a fairly big impact, but covid/supply chain/shipping literally took millions of cars out of the market.

[hafjell]

I'd also say that the depreciation curve was historically too steep. A new car doesn't really lose half its value the minute you drive it off the lot. On the supply side, I think fleet sales and the rental car fleet churn historically had a fairly big impact, but covid/supply chain/shipping literally took millions of cars out of the market.

Yes to too steep, just as now it's way too flat. 3 year old cars with 30,000 miles selling for same price as new?
More inventory is coming on line. New cars from Toyota / Mexico / Long Beach arrive at the dealerships (from MT) on the 10th and 25th of the month. Wonder if they'll get snapped up this weekend or linger. I keep hearing that the market will return to normal, but it hasn't happened yet.

[Ted Striker]

Can't remember whether or not I've mentioned this in one of the car threads, but I just sold my 2019 Tacoma for what I paid brand new three years ago. To a dealer. That's insane.

When I was preparing to sell it, I did a lot of reading & youtube watching, and everyone was warning of the imminent collapse of the used market. But they weren't factoring in the inventory disparity between independent dealers, and big chains like Autonation, Carmax, etc. who have far greater buying power, and can sit on inventory much longer before discounting.

So my locally owned Toyota dealer wanted to add it to their donut of vehicles on the lot, but ghosted me when they realized I wouldn't be lowballed. One hour on the internet yielded a half dozen good offers (two were full price) and a half dozen lowballs. When I drove to the lot of the best offer, I was surprised to see it completely full of used cars. I literally parked in the only available spot. They had some nice cars too: 911, a pair of BMW Ms, Jag F-Pace, along with the half dozen Teslas that are on every lot in Seattle, plus a bunch of trucks.

At some point they're going to have to start making deals on those cars, but I guess that shoe hasn't dropped yet.

[XXX-er]

You mentioned that ^^ it was that Toyota tax paying off, say what you will obviously you didnt go wrong buying a Toyota

there are lots of them here especially amongst mtn bikers & skiers

I also have the 2019 Tacoma with LOW kms and I got no complaints

[Ted Striker]

We still own a 4Runner. Not going to sell it any time soon though.

[BobMc]

We hadn’t had a new vehicle in a long time, my wife has always drove vehicles left behind at our shop I’d make roadworthy for her. I’d had three new trucks in the 27 years of marriage.

Figured it was time to get her something nice. We got her a new 2022 Highlander XLE awd, blue with a cream interior. I freaking love that thing, it’s gorgeous, rides fantastic, and has all the newest tech features. I’m getting to the age where it sometimes hurts to turn around, back up camera, blind spot notices, and rear cross traffic warnings are the cats meow.

The only problem is it’s too new and she doesn’t want to drive it to our property (and the 20 some miles of dirt roads required to get there) for fishing trips.

[Danno]

Doesn't she know that all skis are rock skis?

[BobMc]

Doesn't she know that all skis are rock skis?

My trucks have all been rock skis, first Tacoma was in Moab first weekend we owned it, second Tacoma was in the Uintas the first weekend, current Chev 2500 got a rocker panel dinged up on the way to Ding and Dang slot canyons first weekend.

Her’s, apparently not…. :shrug:

[hafjell]

Can't remember whether or not I've mentioned this in one of the car threads, but I just sold my 2019 Tacoma for what I paid brand new three years ago. To a dealer. That's insane.

When I was preparing to sell it, I did a lot of reading & youtube watching, and everyone was warning of the imminent collapse of the used market. But they weren't factoring in the inventory disparity between independent dealers, and big chains like Autonation, Carmax, etc. who have far greater buying power, and can sit on inventory much longer before discounting.

So my locally owned Toyota dealer wanted to add it to their donut of vehicles on the lot, but ghosted me when they realized I wouldn't be lowballed. One hour on the internet yielded a half dozen good offers (two were full price) and a half dozen lowballs. When I drove to the lot of the best offer, I was surprised to see it completely full of used cars. I literally parked in the only available spot. They had some nice cars too: 911, a pair of BMW Ms, Jag F-Pace, along with the half dozen Teslas that are on every lot in Seattle, plus a bunch of trucks.

At some point they're going to have to start making deals on those cars, but I guess that shoe hasn't dropped yet.

Friend drives MB sedans. He's on his 4th. This time around the dealer started calling and asking for his next move but started the bidding where they usually end up. He was happy so, not playing hard to get, said no thanks. They called back the next week with a better offer. And the next week with an even better offer. I understand the basics of deal volume, but at some point it just seems silly. I guess if there's no supply...

[MakersTeleMark]

My trucks have all been rock skis, first Tacoma was in Moab first weekend we owned it, second Tacoma was in the Uintas the first weekend, current Chev 2500 got a rocker panel dinged up on the way to Ding and Dang slot canyons first weekend.

Her’s, apparently not…. :shrug:

That is such a fun canyon loop. Have to get back there soon. No better way to break in the Chevy I suppose.

[El Chupacabra]

Can't remember whether or not I've mentioned this in one of the car threads, but I just sold my 2019 Tacoma for what I paid brand new three years ago. To a dealer. That's insane.

When I was preparing to sell it, I did a lot of reading & youtube watching, and everyone was warning of the imminent collapse of the used market. But they weren't factoring in the inventory disparity between independent dealers, and big chains like Autonation, Carmax, etc. who have far greater buying power, and can sit on inventory much longer before discounting.

So my locally owned Toyota dealer wanted to add it to their donut of vehicles on the lot, but ghosted me when they realized I wouldn't be lowballed. One hour on the internet yielded a half dozen good offers (two were full price) and a half dozen lowballs. When I drove to the lot of the best offer, I was surprised to see it completely full of used cars. I literally parked in the only available spot. They had some nice cars too: 911, a pair of BMW Ms, Jag F-Pace, along with the half dozen Teslas that are on every lot in Seattle, plus a bunch of trucks.

At some point they're going to have to start making deals on those cars, but I guess that shoe hasn't dropped yet.

Outright sale, not a trade in?

I'm considering unloading the F350, since we don't need it for carrying a truck camper (sold) and our trailer is pretty small.,

[Ted Striker]

Yep, cut me a check in the time it took to walk up to Chick-fil-A and back (about half an hour)

[El Chupacabra]

Interesting. Thanks.

[Ted Striker]

Interesting. Thanks.

The rundown was Carfax (they refer to dealers who will contact you by email/text), Carmax, Carvana, AutoNation, KBB & Edmonds (they refer as well), Vroom & CarGurus (both offers were a joke), the dealer I originally bought it from, and the "we'll buy your car" link on a few other local dealer's websites.

The top two were Autonation and Carvana. I've sold a car to Carvana before, and they're a total shitshow. Can't seem to get the paperwork right, want to zoom meet with a notary (how do they not have their own?!), plus I'm outside of their pickup zone, so I'd have to drive to their hub which is in the middle of nowhere (they rent space on the Manheim auction lot, so you literally do the deal on the hood of the car)

Autonation emailed an offer as a pdf attachment, and I received a follow-up email from the specific dealership's "Acquisition Manager" a few minutes later. We arranged a time, switched to texts to make it a little easier to communicate in real time. I was skeptical of the firmness of their offer, and half expected them to nitpick and backpedal, but after a test drive, and good look over, they were true to their word. The only slow part was that they run the paperwork through their head office in Florida (that's when I went for lunch). They gave me a paper check, but mentioned they could do Zelle instead - which in retrospect, I should've done, because my bank held the check for a while.

The third best was Carmax, followed by a few dealerships. Everything else was super low.

[Name Redacted]

The rundown was Carfax (they refer to dealers who will contact you by email/text), Carmax, Carvana, AutoNation, KBB & Edmonds (they refer as well), Vroom & CarGurus (both offers were a joke), the dealer I originally bought it from, and the "we'll buy your car" link on a few other local dealer's websites.

The top two were Autonation and Carvana. I've sold a car to Carvana before, and they're a total shitshow. Can't seem to get the paperwork right, want to zoom meet with a notary (how do they not have their own?!), plus I'm outside of their pickup zone, so I'd have to drive to their hub which is in the middle of nowhere (they rent space on the Manheim auction lot, so you literally do the deal on the hood of the car)

Autonation emailed an offer as a pdf attachment, and I received a follow-up email from the specific dealership's "Acquisition Manager" a few minutes later. We arranged a time, switched to texts to make it a little easier to communicate in real time. I was skeptical of the firmness of their offer, and half expected them to nitpick and backpedal, but after a test drive, and good look over, they were true to their word. The only slow part was that they run the paperwork through their head office in Florida (that's when I went for lunch). They gave me a paper check, but mentioned they could do Zelle instead - which in retrospect, I should've done, because my bank held the check for a while.

The third best was Carmax, followed by a few dealerships. Everything else was super low.

Carmax offering me $35k for my ‘20 taco. Kinda tempting, but a little low. I could get the same money if I took the topper off and the topper is worth 2-3k.

[Ted Striker]

Yeah, the dealers don't add much of anything for it, so I took the topper off mine. It's taking up space in my garage. Gonna put it on offerup & CL.

edit: agree that's a little low for a '20. Which trim level?

[Name Redacted]

Yeah, the dealers don't add much of anything for it, so I took the topper off mine. It's taking up space in my garage. Gonna put it on offerup & CL.

edit: agree that's a little low for a '20. Which trim level?

Basically highest trim below pro. No sunroof or sound upgrades. Otherwise everything else.

I just hate selling shit but am pretty ready to sell it. I have too many vehicles and this one is too nice for me. I need a beater work truck. This thing is basically a $40k dog house at this point.

[bagtagley]

I like my taco but it’s worth more than I like it. Been thinking about selling it for a year. Anybody wanna buy a Go Fast?

[Name Redacted]

I like my taco but it’s worth more than I like it. Been thinking about selling it for a year. Anybody wanna buy a Go Fast?

What size? I was telling the wife that that would be the only way that I'd want to keep it, if we turned it into a camping mobile with a go fast or a FWC.

[Ted Striker]

Basically highest trim below pro. No sunroof or sound upgrades. Otherwise everything else.

Sounds like a TRD Off-Road? Mine was a 19 TRD Sport, so yeah, I think you might be able to do a little better.

I like my taco but it’s worth more than I like it.

That's exactly where I was at.

[XXX-er]

I got the cheapest Taco but even that had lots of creature comforts n stuff,

it wasn't like buying the cheapest ranger with rubber floor mats, rolling up the windows by hand and no cruise

oh the humanity