IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE AUTUMN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A RATHER DEEP
TROUGH WITH SUB 550-DAM 500 MB HEIGHTS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND
TO THE E OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWLANDS TO REMAIN BELOW 60 MOST AREAS TUE AND SNOW LEVELS IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO DROP TO AROUND THE HIGHER PASSES AS ONSHORE FLOW AND
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH GIVES SHOWERS. WITH THE TROUGH STILL NOT TOO
FAR TO THE EAST WED WILL OPT TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY MODERATING. MODEL TIMING STARTS SHOWING
TIMING ISSUES WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE GFS FLATTER AND FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS WOULD BRING WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE WED NIGHT AND THU WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD
BE MAINLY DRY. AT THIS POINT A MODEL BLEND WITH CLOUDS AND POPS
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST BET. FRI AND SAT SHOW
BIGGER DIFFERENCES ALOFT WITH THE GFS SHOWING RATHER STRONG AND COOL
NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH. ABOVE
NORMAL POPS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE THE
BEST FORECAST IN THIS PATTERN DESPITE DIFFERENCES. ALBRECHT
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