Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[Danno]

You gots to channel your inner LemonBoy. When you see words like "northwest flow", "upslope", "ornographics", "locally higher amounts", its time to start paying attention.

I blame the 3 year old's effect on my brain.

[Danno]

23" in 24 hours at Loveland is an outlier. No model showed that much snow in that or any other area. Almost every storm has an outlier but it's impossible to predict accurately where they are going to pop up.

yeah, when LL reports 21" and Winter Park reports 4" over the same time period, that isn't exactly something that happens every or even most storms.

[skiHOG]

I remember in '07 or '08 a similar event happened. Strong northerly flow set up right over the Divide/LLP. Two days later, 4" of precip was recorded on the pass accumulating to 60". Nowhere else in the front range or summit area had anything close to those totals.

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[simple]

I remember in '07 or '08 a similar event happened. Strong northerly flow set up right over the Divide/LLP. Two days later, 4" of precip was recorded on the pass accumulating to 60". Nowhere else in the front range or summit area had anything close to those totals.

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No other ski area. Just sayin

[smitchell333]

Snow got gloppy fast around noon at Berthoud.

Someone triggered a sizable slide in the Stanley path. Tracks out at the bottom so I assume all OK

[montanaskier]

55 degrees at 8100 today...silly warm and warmer tomorrow by 8-12 degrees. Nice slush at the Beav this afternoon!

[FiveLarge]

Snow got gloppy fast around noon at Berthoud.

Aspect(s)/elevation(s)?

[pfluffenmeister]

Awesome 2 day cycle at LL.

[smitchell333]

Aspect(s)/elevation(s)?

Anything with a lot of sun was surface glopping. Was powder on all aspects early in the morning. At 12:45 I came down SamKnob/Nelsons area to the aquaduct and it was powder on the steeper stuff but where it was less steep and exposed to sun - wet and sticky.

[gratzo]

About the discussion around Loveland's 20+ inches from Sunday night to Tuesday morning ...

If you forecasted that amount of snow from that storm, you'd probably be wrong more times than you'd be right. But, if you forecasted a good powder day on Monday, you'd probably be right more times than you'd be wrong. The 5-7 inches that fell Monday night on the backside of the storm was a fortunate but nearly unforecastable event as one last wave moving through NW flow came close enough to the divide areas back to Vail Pass to bring a few more inches. I went back to look at the models to see if I missed anything, and while most models indicated there would be some remaining moisture in NW flow Monday night, you'd again probably be wrong more times than you'd be right if you forecasted that this residual moisture would turn into 6 inches of snow.

I think in 5-10 years the high resolution modeling will get much better at these type of events, but it's not there yet, at least not consistently. When people ask me about the accuracy of forecasting powder days, I usually say that modern weather science can point you to the ~20 days per year that will be pretty darn good, but you have to go on most of those days to find the gems, because 60% of the days will meet expectations, 20% will be disappointing, and 20% will be far better than expected.

JOEL

[UpDown]

Is this week of wind/warm weather going to be enough to turn North East-facing pow above 12,000ft into PUNCHY? Anybody getting HIGH this week in the summit county/vail pass/ Loveland/RMNP zones? (particularly Thursday or Friday) that can give reports of their pow tests?

[mdblows]

Is this week of wind/warm weather going to be enough to turn North East-facing pow above 12,000ft into PUNCHY? Anybody getting HIGH this week in the summit county/vail pass/ Loveland/RMNP zones? (particularly Thursday or Friday) that can give reports of their pow tests?

Curious about this as well, especially if anyone has info on Dragon's Egg off of Meeker

[montanaskier]

61 in the village, glorious day. Windy and a few more clouds than yesterday but it's hella warm.

[The SnowShow]

Vail and BC are not extending their seasons, correct?

[montanaskier]

Correct....as of now. I hope they don't personally. I like for the classic end of year party to be the end.

[montanaskier]

Hit 60 again today and maybe north of 65 tomorrow. Spring arrived in a hurry!

[The SnowShow]

Had some fun tshirt slush skiing the bowls today, but yeah, so warm in EC.

[Like a Boss]

Correct....as of now. I hope they don't personally. I like for the classic end of year party to be the end.

Agree. The snowpack is deep enough, unfortunately half of it is dust. It's been a bizarre season for the Beav, with Aspen being all time and Summit killing it we kind of got donut-holed this year. Still, I don't recall a time where the trees skied as well overall, even 2010/2011. Maybe due to all the storms with heavy winds we had?

[wolfelot]

Warm and fun yesterday crushing the bumps at Copper! More today.

[Lindahl]

The wind has definitely done some interesting things this year. LL has almost the same totals as in 10/11, but Crack Rock is about 10' bigger. Noticed similar effects in the Vail area, but the totals aren't quite so close, out there.

[adrenalated]

^^^ Crack Rock disappeared in Apr 2011.

[iamTRuTH]

The wind has definitely done some interesting things this year. LL has almost the same totals as in 10/11, but Crack Rock is about 10' bigger. Noticed similar effects in the Vail area, but the totals aren't quite so close, out there.

It think they actually had more snow this time in 2011, the base was 10" in higher in '11. But, it does seem like there has been more wind this year.

[Lindahl]

^^^ Crack Rock disappeared in Apr 2011.

Really? Crazy. I remember hitting it in Mar that year and it was like 15-20'. More like 25-30' about a week ago.

Oh, and Vail was fun yesterday. Slush bumps, daffy contests, cliff sendage, an amazing backscratcher-to-faceplant, and, of course the 3 B's : booze, brats and boobs.

[montanaskier]

Nice Lindahl. My favorite week of the year that ends with the best party of the year.

[pdt1374]

haha saw you guys out there, great to see the party starting early! anyone see anything going on with snow at vail or beav?? Clear in frisco and toward copper, keystone & breck. looks like clouds moving into summet along the gore