Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

**concretejungle** · 11-04-2010, 08:43 PM

Originally Posted by bamboocoreONLY

That's cool... what's your point? I'm stoked on the weather, I go to school for meteorology and this thread gives a lot of good info, I just enjoy chiming in. Sorry that I'm younger and wear "steezy" clothing or whatever you want to call it. I happen to think it looks good, I didn't grow up in the 40's like you and wear only clothes based on functionality.

You sir, can kindly fuck off.

Sorry about being harsh but since you're a student of the weather arts then chime in with something worthwhile. There is a Berthoud thread for telling us how good you look while you're out gaping it up.

This thread started for a reason, too much weather in the CO avalanche thread and continues to be one of the only ones that isn't fucked up by this shit show of a forum.

Sorry but this is one of the first times that I remember getting worked up by all the dumb ass shit here and I lashed out but then again again only my assumptions are ignorant and yours are fact based.

Fuck the WROD but when it starts it better be game fucking on. Thanks to all the weather folk who keep this thread going as a place to get real info on CO weather as it's much better than anything else going.

**linvillegorge** · 11-04-2010, 08:56 PM

I've heard several people around here (Evergreen) talking about how this could be a big one. I don't know what they're looking at, because I haven't seen anything suggesting that this one has the potential to be a big one.

**bamboocoreONLY** · 11-04-2010, 09:56 PM

Originally Posted by concretejungle

Sorry about being harsh but since you're a student of the weather arts then chime in with something worthwhile. There is a Berthoud thread for telling us how good you look while you're out gaping it up.

This thread started for a reason, too much weather in the CO avalanche thread and continues to be one of the only ones that isn't fucked up by this shit show of a forum.

Sorry but this is one of the first times that I remember getting worked up by all the dumb ass shit here and I lashed out but then again again only my assumptions are ignorant and yours are fact based.

Fuck the WROD but when it starts it better be game fucking on. Thanks to all the weather folk who keep this thread going as a place to get real info on CO weather as it's much better than anything else going.

I agree I didn't have as much input about weather per say, so sorry for gunking up the thread. The beginning of the season always gets me going like everyone else and I guess it can lead to a bunch of random useless comments as you can see haha. It's also hard when Joel's forecasts are so damn good

I'll be sure to keep my berthoud comments to the berthoud thread, minimally though.

**SterlingSpikeDancer** · 11-04-2010, 10:07 PM

I would second MTskiers' observations about CO La Nina winters, this one (even early) is shaping up nicely. Hopefully we get the cold and snow to consolidate that snowpack and get the game going. Bamboo, have fun and post some more pics in the Berthoud thread, and keep the weather learning going!

gunit130 · 11-04-2010, 10:10 PM

Originally Posted by concretejungle

This isn't the god damned Berthoud I'll be wearing a steezy outfit thread. Fuck off.

Any idea what the temperature will be tomorrow?

**gratzo** · 11-05-2010, 12:14 AM

Newest models are in for tonight. Looks like the forecast for next week holds, with some small differences in the details.

Getting more confident in the following:

1) Two storms.

2) First storm Monday night through Tuesday night. 6-12" is an early guess, best results from about Aspen on north and west of the divide.

3) Second storm Wednesday night through Friday. Perhaps another 6-12", but a total of 24" from both storms may be very localized. This storm should again hit the northern 1/2 the hardest and west of the divide.

Earlier models hinted at an eastern snowstorm (for the person in Evergreen), but the last 4 models have backed off of this and it looks more likely that these two storms will be most west-of-the-divide storms.

Beyond next week, the models are hinting at continued cold and snowy, which makes me a bit ambivilent about starting the "good" pattern too early, but we'll see.

First thing's first...the next week forecast.

Right now, best days look like Tues storm day/Wed AM pow and Thurs storm day/Fri AM pow.

Most details posted to my site Friday morning.

This is getting fun!

JOEL

**funkendrenchman** · 11-05-2010, 12:18 AM

Sounds good to me.

**montanaskier** · 11-05-2010, 10:52 AM

my wife has to fly out of Denver on Wed night...so a small break would be appreciated. Outside of that...BRING IT!

**JoeStrummer** · 11-05-2010, 11:17 AM

Oh all seeing eye (Gratzo):

Anything for Wolf Creek? Hoping to catch my usual early-mid November magic.

Also, I know this is also not a partners thread but if anyone wants to get out Tues-Fri, let me know. Maybe Montezuma Basin or something closer to Front Range?

**gratzo** · 11-05-2010, 11:18 AM

Models are coming into line for next week. The Quick Forecast is promising...a cold/snowy 7-10 day period coming up, starting Monday night!

http://www.coloradopowderforecast.com/quick-forecast/

**gratzo** · 11-05-2010, 11:19 AM

Originally Posted by JoeStrummer

Oh all seeing eye (Gratzo):

Anything for Wolf Creek? Hoping to catch my usual early-mid November magic.

Also, I know this is also not a partners thread but if anyone wants to get out Tues-Fri, let me know. Maybe Montezuma Basin or something closer to Front Range?

Wolf will get snow from both of next week's storms, but I don't think they'll be the big winner. None of the storms in the next 7-10 days are coming from the southwest, so no massive Wolf Creek snow totals anytime soon. I'm sure the skiing will be nice down there, just not epic pow.

**grskier** · 11-05-2010, 11:24 AM

Thanks for the excellent work gratzo...

**skiingislife** · 11-05-2010, 05:38 PM

Originally Posted by montanaskier

I'd still expect it to remain warm and dry overall thru Nov. The overall pattern will change, but I don't think it is ready to change yet.

.............

**The SnowShow** · 11-05-2010, 08:49 PM

Sounds great! Thx for the info!

**WTF is dat** · 11-06-2010, 07:03 AM

I would venture to say that Vail will do a bit better than summit county with these upcoming storms... although not by too much.

also looks like the 14th/15th could see some significant snowfall.

**montanaskier** · 11-06-2010, 12:42 PM

Joel can weigh in but the NWS doesn't seem too excited about this week. Talk of a post frontal dry slot limiting snow on Monday night and Wed/Thurs doesn't get them really excited either. Should at least be colder.

**gratzo** · 11-06-2010, 10:09 PM

Phew. This is a hard forecast. Here's the scoop:

- the pattern is changing.

- no matter what happens with the snow, it'll be pretty cold from Monday night through at least the next Monday.

- the storm on Mon PM/Tuesday looks like a good 4-8" for a lot of places. It could be deeper than this, but the models are STILL oscillating back and forth. Since the storm is only 48hrs away and the models are all over the place, I don't have a ton of confidence in narrowing down snow totals for individual locations.

- that said, the San Juans and central mtns could do well Mon night, with better NW flow favoring the central & northern mtns through Tuesday.

- the storm on Wed PM/Thurs is increasing heading south and looking less snowy for most of Colorado than I earlier thought. It'll still be cold, though, and wrap-around moisture could actually work out OK.

- at least 1 or 2 more storms could swing through Fri-Mon. Hard to tell details, though.

- the cities and east of the divide should see some snow from at least one of the storms...maybe the Wed PM/Thurs storm or one of the weekend storms.

The take away is that it'll be cold & snowy for the next 7-10 days and I would expect many mtns in Colorado to see around a foot of snow - at least - in the next week.

Montanaskier is right that the NWS is worried about a dry slot on the Mon PM/Tues storm, but there's still so much uncertainty in the details that I'm not going to get pessimistic just yet. Plus the last two NAM model runs on Saturday were more moist/snowy than earlier runs, so the trend is good.

**montanaskier** · 11-07-2010, 08:11 AM

NWS continues to be pretty pessimistic about the first storm and second storm for this valley. I'm stoked that it will be cooler.

**goldenboy** · 11-07-2010, 11:11 AM

The only model I see that makes an of these storms look good is the ARIRM (Alabama Ranking Inverse Relationship Model).

I'd just assume it stays hot if all we're getting is a couple inches here and there. Next week's cold temps are going to rot the snow in a hurry.

**Rontele** · 11-07-2010, 11:33 AM

Originally Posted by goldenboy

The only model I see that makes an of these storms look good is the ARIRM (Alabama Ranking Inverse Relationship Model).

I'd just assume it stays hot if all we're getting is a couple inches here and there. Next week's cold temps are going to rot the snow in a hurry.

I like it when Alabama loses.

**Wild4umlauts** · 11-07-2010, 01:52 PM

It started puking at Loveland at about 11 a.m. The weather changed from bright and sunny to pounding snow in a blink of an eye.

**The SnowShow** · 11-07-2010, 02:12 PM

Same at the stone...was a legit whiteout at one point..

**gratzo** · 11-07-2010, 08:45 PM

The squall today was fun...for 30 minutes.

Monday night's storm might be best for San Juans and Elks and Flattops...it's oriented more SSW to NNE and is pretty slow crossing the state. Will update snow totals in the AM.

**Wild4umlauts** · 11-07-2010, 09:21 PM

It was at least a couple hours at LL and was already at 2-3" accumulation by the time I left. If that's a "squall" then I'll take one of those at around 7 a.m. every day.

**Signed In White** · 11-07-2010, 10:23 PM

Originally Posted by Wild4umlauts

It started puking at Loveland at about 11 a.m. The weather changed from bright and sunny to pounding snow in a blink of an eye.

Same at Abasin. They had to close the lift due to lightning for an hour and about an inch of snow had built up and then they opened the lift up, the sun came out, and it was a pretty good day besides the lift lines...