NOAA’s Updated 2025-26 Winter Forecast: The PNW’s Powder Prospects Take a Turn

Nov-Jan Temperature Outlook|Photo: NOAA

It might feel like we just put the gear away, but it’s never too early to start dreaming about next winter. NOAA just dropped its updated long-lead seasonal outlook for Winter 2025-26, and there are some notable shakeups that you will want to watch.

Last winter, NOAA’s predictions were pretty on the money, only really missing the mark on California. This year, the forecast is hinged on a developing "La Nada" situation. We're currently in ENSO-neutral conditions, with a 48% chance of that persisting and a 41% chance of La Niña developing by early winter. With neither El Niño nor La Niña expected to take firm control, other climate factors will be the main drivers, making for a trickier forecast.

So, what does this mean for your winter plans? Here’s the breakdown for skiers and snowboarders.

Nov-Jan Precipitation Outlook|Photo: NOAA

Pacific Northwest & Northern Rockies: A Cooler, Drier Outlook

This is the biggest headline from the latest update. The Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, which previously looked poised for an epic, high-precipitation season, are now trending toward below-normal precipitation, especially early in the winter. However, it’s not all bad news. The late winter (Feb-Apr) forecast for this region now has a chance for below-normal temperatures. This could be a saving grace for snow preservation, keeping the snowpack chalky and cold even if the big dumps are less frequent.

The Southwest: A Roll of the Dice

Previously, the outlook for the Southwest (think southern Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico) was trending dry. That has now backed off, with the region falling into the "Equal Chances" category for precipitation. This means the models don't have a strong signal for wet or dry conditions, so the region's snowpack will live or die by individual storm cycles. It’s a classic "wait and see" scenario.

The Sierra & Central Rockies: The Great Unknown

For the core of the Rockies in Colorado and the mighty Sierra Nevada, uncertainty reigns. These zones are squarely in the “Equal Chances” bucket for both temperature and precipitation throughout the winter. This means there’s no strong climate signal pushing the forecast one way or the other. Your local forecast and a willingness to chase storms will be more important than ever.

The Bottom Line

The sure bet for a snowy winter in the PNW and Northern Rockies is now off the table, replaced by a more complex forecast of less moisture but colder temps later in the season. The Southwest and the heart of the American West remain a toss-up.

Feb-Apr Temperature Outlook|Photo: NOAA

Feb-April Precipitation Outlook|Photo: NOAA

For now, keep doing those snow dances. We’ll be keeping a close eye on the forecasts as they evolve.