It’s hard to believe, but "Januburied" has officially come to a close. Time flies when your company has a six-inch morning powder policy and the faucet just won’t turn off.
You've seen the headlines this past month: a record-breaking month in Mammoth, over 300 inches of snowfall in Jackson, already-extended seasons in Colorado. From the Sierra Nevada to the Southern Rockies, conditions have been deep.
But there have also been other headlines, too—of avalanches crushing homes, fatal patrol accidents, and dangerous flood conditions.
As skiers, we’re constantly praying for bigger and bigger dumps. Living in a mountain town, it’s even easy to become jaded when you’re graced "only" a few inches.
While I got some of the best turns of my life in this season already – and not to be a huge fricken bummer – I couldn’t help but think about what these massive storms meant in terms of climate change. I went to a meteorologist based out of Tahoe from some answers.
Dr. Ben Hatchett of the Desert Research Institute gave me a little background on how Januburied actually happened from a weather perspective. The main takeaway is that we just got lucky. There were a series of big storms that also happened to be accompanied by cold enough temperatures to maintain snowpack at lower elevations. This made for some all-time skiing conditions across the West. January’s “Snowmaggeden” may have also taken California out of its six-year drought, though the flash nature of this winter’s storms also came at a price as lower elevation experienced dangerous flooding that damaged roads, homes and ocean shorelines.
The water vapor imagery from the NASA SSM/I instrument shows the narrow, elongated plumes of strong moisture transport called atmospheric rivers during the flood and high snow level event (January 7-8) and the second, colder storm (Jan 10-11) that put down 11+ feet of snow at Lake Tahoe.
I asked Hatchett what, if anything, these massive, intermittent storms say about climate change. He told me that just like it can turn on, it can turn off. In a historical context, however, we’re not way out of bounds in terms of how total snowfall goes this season.
“In terms of climate, we’re seeing an increase in precipitation variability, but nobody’s really sure how that is going to pan out,” he said. One concern is that as the planet warms, there will be an increase in evaporation, and therefore an increase in atmospheric water vapor. Those pow-bringing atmospheric rivers you keep hearing about? Those are only going to get more extreme.
“We can expect more intense storms, but as we know for snow, it is all about temperature. A couple of degrees can make a big difference,” said Hatchett. “From a skier’s perspective, our future will likely be characterized by some amazing storm cycles but overall less snow at lower elevations and increasing chances for persistent dry and warm spells. Fantastic winters will still be had, but you might have to travel a bit more."
It’s virtually impossible to predict exact weather forecasts more than five days out, so it’s hard to say how this past month’s trends will pan out for the rest of the season. As far as climate change goes, however, we do have macro data that shows that global temperatures are rising. It’s safe to say that while you shouldn’t feel guilty about this season’s turns just yet, there’s a good chance that the intensification of weather will lead for even more unpredictability and variability going forward. This will affect your winters.
This is not to take away from the incredible season the skiing community has shared so far, but rather a reminder to ask questions, think critically, trust science and remember to play safe.
Here’s to another big storm rolling through this week! See you on the slopes.
For weather nerds that like graphs… here’s a breakdown of Januburied in the Sierra Nevada in terms of the factors that mattered most. See powdiction.com for an extended discussion.
paulhotdog
February 1st, 2017
Another good article but w/ a focus on UT: http://www.jans.com/blog/nate-tomlinson/early-january-storm-recap-park-city-ut
passholer
February 1st, 2017
why cant have a great snowfall story without the climate crap
Jeff7
February 1st, 2017
Shoddy attempt at science, fellas. Here, read this and learn a little:
The 3 Powerful Reasons All Intelligent People Know Climate Change Is Fake Science
http://rightsmarts.com/3-powerful-reasons-intelligent-people-know-climate-change-fake-science/
Reader
February 1st, 2017
Many links here on what climate change is doing.
http://foodassets.com/info/climate-change-facts.html
The Arctic is also going absolutely “ape” right now -
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2017/02/scientists-marvel-at-increasingly-non.html
No reason at all for deniers to claim they are still doubting. The scientist certainly aren’t.
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