NOAA Calls for a Warm, Dry Winter

Bad news, everybody. NOAA recently released their U.S. Winter Outlook for the 2018/2019 season, and it doesn’t look good for those who love cold, snowy weather. The report calls for a warm and dry winter in much of the West, and estimates a 70-75% chance of El Nino developing.

These predictions are based on observations of three climatic phenomena: ENSO, the Arctic oscillation, and the Madden-Julian oscillation.

It's going to be a wet winter down South. Too bad there isn't much skiing there. NOAA graphic.

Variations in the ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) cycle lead to El Nino and La Nina, and are largely due to ocean surface temperature variations in the Pacific. The warm phase of ENSO, which will likely develop this year, leads to drier-than-normal conditions in the Western United States.

Also impacting precipitation in the West is the Madden-Julian oscillation, a 30-60 day climate pattern associated with anomalous precipitation. In popular culture, a Madden-Julian oscillation can lead to the heavy precipitation often referred to as the “Pineapple Express.” Alternatively, it can lead to anomalously light precipitation. Unfortunately for skiers, the latter may be more likely this winter.

Related: It's Snowing in Colorado, and There Are Already Avalanches

The Arctic oscillation impacts North American temperatures, either concentrating cold Arctic air at higher latitudes in its positive phase, or allowing Arctic fronts to extend farther south in its negative phase. We appear to be heading for a positive phase, leading to warmer winter temperatures across North America.

Yikes. It's gonna be warm just about everywhere you can ski in the Lower 48. NOAA graphic.

Climatic predictions are notoriously inaccurate, so don’t panic yet. However, it might be time to start praying to Ullr with a little extra fervor.