Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

[stalefish3169]

That statement does nothing to wash away bitcoin’s energy use - in China and elsewhere.

Nor does it explain the “Bitcoin is good for green energy” argument that gets repeated like a mantra.

Everything we use needs energy. And the number of people on earth continues to grow.

That doesn’t justify the massive amount of energy Bitcoin mining is consuming. If anything it’s justifies the criticism.

You are judging a very new technology based upon its initial characteristics rather than its optimized form. You're like a Luddite in 1996 saying the internet will never amount to anything because data transfer can only be done at 28.8 Kbps.

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[bennymac]

Don’t hurt yourself stretching like that.

[4matic]

What does the Continental Pipeline hostage to crypto payment do to the future of regulation? It will be interesting what coin they are seeking.

[TahoeJ]

For fuck’s sake stop talking past each other in this thread. Both sides are collectively wrong and the reality is somewhere in the middle.

Just sold off some more ETH at $4100, bitches. It’s a game.

[stalefish3169]

What does the Continental Pipeline hostage to crypto payment do to the future of regulation? It will be interesting what coin they are seeking.

At the end of the day, the currency doesn't matter. If some kidnappers demanded gold and diamonds, nobody would be shouting to ban gold and diamonds. Even though child slaves mine both of them. People just don't like change, so they pile on crypto. Regardless of all that, if the pipeline hackers are demanding crypto, Monero would be the obvious choice as it's the most well-respected privacy coin.

For fuck’s sake stop talking past each other in this thread. Both sides are collectively wrong and the reality is somewhere in the middle.

Just sold off some more ETH at $4100, bitches. It’s a game.

I'd say the posters on the side of the best performing asset of the last decade are probably less wrong than the it's going to zero crowd.

[bennymac]

I'd say the posters on the side of the best performing asset of the last decade are probably less wrong than the it's going to zero crowd.

Criticizing BTC ≠ “going to zero”

But you already know that - so I can only assume you’re being disingenuous for effect.

[stalefish3169]

Criticizing BTC ≠ “going to zero”

But you already know that - so I can only assume you’re being disingenuous for effect.

There were lots of puregravity posts claiming BTC was going to zero, but he deleted them. There are probably some no intrinsic value posts lingering around if you scroll back a few pages.

[bennymac]

There were lots of puregravity posts claiming BTC was going to zero, but he deleted them. There are probably some no intrinsic value posts lingering around if you scroll back a few pages.

He’s trolling you.

[LeeLau]

He’s trolling you.

Its what it does. And it works

[shroom]

we’ve been trading public perception long before btc, just pushing new bounds of ‘value’ relative to the status quo

[stalefish3169]

onLY CriMiNaLS uSe BiTcOin

https://twitter.com/meronina/status/...292954625?s=19

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[stalefish3169]

He’s trolling you.

Two things are going up, my net worth and pg's blood pressure. I'm claiming the W.

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[Shaaarrrp]

My general theory:
The crypto cycle is largely driven by a flow of money starting in Bitcoin, the most popular and well known coin and moving to Ethereum and thru alts, finally to a greed driven mania and eventual blowoff top as we saw in 2017/18.

A major part of this cycle is the perceived flippening of Bitcoins main price competitor, Ethereum. This is when Ethereum's market cap exceeds Bitcoin.

We are currently midway thru this cycle with Ethereum possibly to near or overtake Bitcoin dominance at a euphoric high for both.

After this euphoric high and near or brief flip (similar to June 12, 2017), one or both major coins will take an extended languishing period while alts start to gain steam. Many that have gained substantially will languish while new ones will pop and certain bigger ones will go on to unthinkable highs.

Right around the time that BTC/ETH restart their advancement after a long languishing period, we will see alts follow along. This will signal the true bull parabolic market that we should look for exit points in.

Further general ideas: We are 3x total market cap of the peak in Jan 2018. Knowing what we do about the market-that feels very small to me:
-Most 2017 investors have substantially more in the market and are willing to add more
-Substantial new investors
-Institutional Buying
-Increased fraud and opportunities for scamcoins and waste

-There has not been anything resembling a real parabolic alt season yet in this cycle. Certain coins have obviously ran but it has not been across the board or parabolic for most. Also, many of the most crazy coins have clearly been driven by outside factors unrelated to general market sentiment.

-There should be more blurring of BTC/ETH/alt season with increased access to many smaller coins on well known sites. That said, there are plenty of coins that are just as cumbersome to obtain in 2021 as 2017.

-There will be rampant fraud and scamcoins worth nothing that go on tremendous runs due to greed and shilling


-There are less coins better suited for a hold forever strategy


-The next bull market is expected to be in 2024


-Players with actual products or uses will be worth paying more attention to on a long term scale
Questions - Is the current cycle actually more similar to the Dec 2017 run than Winter/Spring 2017? Are we near the top?

How much knowledge value is gained by being in the market throughout 2017 as opposed to simply late in the run? Can trust our increased experiences to tell us anything about the future?

Is the market mature enough to avoid blow off tops?

Can a largely useless protocol ever become solely an investment vehicle (Ethereum Classic)?


Things worth remembering:

Ethereum hit an all time high on June 12, 2017 after going from $8 to $412 in 6 months. It then languished for months and did not go above $412 until November 23. Prepare yourself for this sort of wait if you want true gains/profits while buying at certain times in what feels like a market you cannot lose in.


If the plan is to hold long term, it should be expected the next cycle could be a long wait.

Things we consider absolute truths could be unfairly biased by when we entered the market.


The past rhymes but doesn't repeat.

I am as biased as anyone else and want the above narrative to happen.

Open to opinions or differing thoughts.

[shera]

Really nice write-up! I have more to say, will try to get to it...

[MultiVerse]

Crypto remains bullish for as long as inflation porn is the story. If/when supply chains get back to normal and we see falling nominal prices in some sectors then the media will move on and so will the money.

If that happens then it's back to telling zombie stories about the Fed to true believers, the same stories gold & silver bugs tell, all while ignoring the inflation history of the last 40+ years.

[stalefish3169]

Crypto remains bullish for as long as inflation porn is the story. If/when supply chains get back to normal and we see falling nominal prices in some sectors then the media will move on and so will the money.

After that it's back to telling zombie stories about the Fed to true believers, the same stories gold & silver bugs tell, all while ignoring the inflation history of the last 40+ years.

Well, the money will move on from shit coins. But BTC, ETH, and at least a few others are here to stay, whether or not you want to believe it.

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[MultiVerse]

Either reading comprehension is a problem for stalefish or he/she purposely misrepresents arguments.

Once again nothing was said about BTC, ETH going to zero. The money 'moving on' refers to valuations i.e. the crowd, not 'true believers' abandoning crypto.

[jm2e]

Shaaarrp, you’re gonna need to sling a little shit around to get anyone’s attention.
P.S. Thanks for that opinion. Super helpful for a plebian like myself.


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[TahoeJ]

Well, the money will move on from shit coins. But BTC, ETH, and at least a few others are here to stay, whether or not you want to believe it.

This is where I stand. We're going to see a major purge of the riff-raff at some point. But BTC and ETH have both been accepted by enough people to be legit, that in itself makes them legit.

[MultiVerse]

A few months ago the average crypto account size on the exchanges was somewhere around $1200, roughly the same size as a stimulus check. There are also millions of unemployed workers in low pay service sector jobs earning more from unemployment than they were with their old jobs. That's a lot of young people with some money to spend, no fear of Covid so no need to hold cash, and time on their hands.

Meanwhile the Fed is trying to hit the accelerator and the brakes at the same time. None of this is sustainable. After the summer of 2021 people will have go to go back to their crappy jobs, supply chains will recover, and growth will slow (hopefully not too soon), and the Fed will either control inflation or it won't. Either way the Fed sets the price level.

[Shaaarrrp]

This is where I stand. We're going to see a major purge of the riff-raff at some point. But BTC and ETH have both been accepted by enough people to be legit, that in itself makes them legit.

I would agree with this but in a market that drives price activity like Ethereum Classic or to a lessor point Doge, do we really believe the market is anywhere near mature enough to largely recognize the difference?

Ethereum Classic
-A smart contract protocol that supposedly has unique processing properties however I cannot find a single use case
-It took me 36 hours to transfer 10 ETC because the system is so awful
-Greyscale has a Trust that essentially forces them to purchase shares of ETC that retail investors then latch onto and the increasing prices and Greyscale interest drives up both
-Greyscale supposedly invests in ETC development because maybe someday it could become useful
-Even the main developer on ETC, Storj Labs, runs their own protocol on the standard Ethereum chain.
-Price action on a coin like ETC could be so driven by the above and purely being 1/7 of the cryptos on Robinhood.

I have friends who tell me that Ethereum is not a price competitor to Bitcoin because the protocol is different. That to me, is insane (do yall disagree?). I think it would be pretty difficult to find many investors who ever buy BTC or ETH because of some logic beyond recent price action.

[MultiVerse]

For fuck’s sake stop talking past each other in this thread. Both sides are collectively wrong and the reality is somewhere in the middle.

One side is unequivocally wrong because the facts aren't in dispute. Everyone acknowledges bitcoin consumes an enormous amount of energy fueled mostly by coal and gas. The main disagreement whether an imaginary scenario where in the future bitcoin is mined with renewable energy means bitcoin is mined primarily with renewable energy today is easily falsifiable. Something that might happen is not the same thing as something that has happened.

[Shaaarrrp]

If you're worried about the environment or transaction speeds/load checkout Hedera Hashgraph

Hbar

[MultiVerse]

^ Not just the environment or transaction speeds, also the economy and national security.

I have friends who tell me that Ethereum is not a price competitor to Bitcoin because the protocol is different. That to me, is insane (do yall disagree?). I think it would be pretty difficult to find many investors who ever buy BTC or ETH because of some logic beyond recent price action.

Even bitcoiner diehards are now making a similar argument as mine that the world is moving away from bitcoin in terms of mindshare. Markets haven't quite caught up to the fact bitcoin is version 1.0 to ETHs, ADAs, etc., version 2.0. The analogy bitcoiners use is bitcoin is email while ETH is the web. Because ETH and others are more dynamic they, not bitcoin, are more likely to usher in web 3.0.

[MakersTeleMark]

ETC is the OG shitcoin.

WTF up with gas fees these days? Shitcoiners clogging the network is.