Results 7,476 to 7,500 of 27096
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
-
07-16-2019, 02:31 PM #7476
-
07-16-2019, 03:01 PM #7477
-
07-16-2019, 03:08 PM #7478Registered User
- Join Date
- Oct 2017
- Posts
- 202
well, the bright side is that this bumper crop of cash-paying cali retirees will start dying off or going to long-term assisted care facilities in 20 years. hopefully their kids are cash strapped and choose to sell quick.
-
07-16-2019, 04:43 PM #7479
-
07-16-2019, 05:10 PM #7480
Seriously, that's my theory, although I'm way too old to benefit. The boomers are dying in place, as all old people do, at a certain point. Moving is hard, expensive, and sort of impossible if you have no money.
What is the largest asset most Americans can lay claim to? Their home, or, for the lucky ones, homes. They really didn't save much otherwise, except for a small percentage of the diligent. Trillions were erased from the value of those assets in the great sucking of the home equity loan craze, and even though that was ten years ago, those loans were probably mostly 30 year, some 15. A lot of kids are being surprised daily when they learn the old Macmansion is more liability than cash cow at the estate meetings. The last thing they need is more debt, unless they're moving in. So, Zillow!
-
07-16-2019, 05:13 PM #7481
Wut? So once they die there will be less people looking to live in those areas so prices will come down? What about the people who are 45 today and living in Cali, Seattle, Portland, etc?
My neighbor has a sweet piece of land with an incredible view. He’s going to die soon and I’ve considered buying the land and building on it. But in my area new homes run from $350-$1000 a sq ft. No way I’m paying $1M plus for a 3,000 sq ft home on top of a $400k lot, well maybe if my compensation triples Is consider it. But when construction of new homes is that expensive, it makes existing homes that much more valuable. Simplistically, either demand for homes has to dry up, or construction costs need to drop if home prices are going to fall.
-
07-16-2019, 05:33 PM #7482
Prices will drop, but, the whole point is that it will take a long time. Probably twenty plus years. The boomers built this pyramid scheme over thirty years, and It's probably topping off, because they're now pretty old. The first Boomer turned 65 on 01-01-11, and the last one will turn 65 on 01-01 31. 73 million of them. So, you're going to have to wait until maybe 2040 for most to clear out. They aren't going anywhere, and they don't spend a lot (that's an even more macro event, which I believe will keep inflation low for a decade, maybe two). As I said, they'll die in place, one by one, and the kids will finally cash in, taking a split, or move in.
-
07-16-2019, 06:38 PM #7483Funky But Chic
- Join Date
- Sep 2001
- Location
- The Cone of Uncertainty
- Posts
- 49,306
Finally, a basement of their very own.
-
07-16-2019, 07:00 PM #7484
Ok, I'll give you 300k for the lot because it's a corner with conservation land across the street..i.e. marsh. They walk around the marsh 1/2 mile to the beach. They overpaid by 295k. I know a lot about construction and I know the realtor as well. We both laughed at the prices of all the houses. It's just dumb. The beachfront stuff is so people with fu money can claim NH as residency. They just sold a 3 million dollar teardown next to Fullers old place...cash. Water damage so extensive it cannot be salvaged...because nobody lived there, like most of those places, and the pipes burst. But hey, when you sell your company for 45 million who cares. Hence, the divide and unaffordable housing plaguing this country. The divide is stronger than ever. But people like you (and I have no idea if you have a dime, nor do I care) think the tax cuts and trumptardness is the answer, but you're so wrong.
-
07-16-2019, 07:37 PM #7485
The N.Y. Fed released some economic data recently that showed the anemic growth in the tri-state area (ex-NYC) and it was abysmal. In one of the longest economic expansions in history, there are actually less workers in Fairfield County than there were a decade ago.
Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.
-
07-17-2019, 07:07 AM #7486Registered User
- Join Date
- Jan 2010
- Location
- your vacation
- Posts
- 4,738
it's all about location as usual
have some friends in buffalo ny of all places, they have been wanting to buy into a moderate/well priced neighborhood, property doesn't even go on the market, it all word of mouth an bidding wars when a house comes up for sale, they finally bought in that neighborhood, then they sold their old house in less than a week because it's in a desirable location, we are talking 250k - 350k
was talking to someone else who had a suburban Chicago house for 30 years, they dumped it and moved to denver, 8,000 sq ft house in chicago sold for 700k, well below what they should/thought they could get, meanwhile their neighbors are all sitting on their overpriced homes desperate to sell and get top dollar, they pissed off a few neighbors by selling cheap, then she says they had a 30k a year property tax bill, wtf? that's enough to make anyone want to sell and move to texas
meanwhile in mountain town usa, people are still desperate to overpay for some shit box condo that needs at least 50k in work to bring it up to "current mountain town luxury standards"
oh-yeah and "affordable housing" I'm so sick of hearing that phrase. 30 years ago you could built a rat trap 4 plex 8 plex or more super cheap. But now that buildling codes and life safety issues all come into play big time it has pushed to cost of building sky high, if you didn't have to worry about egress, fire stops, fire alarms, stairways to code we could easily throw up shit box apartment complexes everywhere and housing would be afforable until the white trash kid playing with his moms lighter and crack pipe starts the place on fire
-
07-17-2019, 08:24 AM #7487
-
07-17-2019, 08:51 AM #7488
phew, good thing those pesky foreign buyers are backing off of the US market
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/fore...yers-flee.html
the one thing shit-cago had going for it is an influx of affluent, educated, youngish people.
curious what happens after the ongoing retail apocalypse is over - if you can get anything you want delivered to you in the burbs is that where people live? or do they cluster near other people because in person contact is a luxury good now? if the only things that survive are restaurants/bars/spas and gyms what differentiates a city?
-
07-17-2019, 09:17 AM #7489Registered User
- Join Date
- Jan 2010
- Location
- your vacation
- Posts
- 4,738
how many young people are buying 5,000 sq ft homes with a 30k tax bill????
and yeah, pretty much look at any city/suburb it's all pretty much the same just a different place. Denver like NYC has been whitewashed and bulldozed into chain stores, anything unique and different is gone
people cluster next to like minded people who look the same as them out of safety and familiarization
housing segregation is pretty standard for most of america
most people don't even know their neighbors other than what they see on nextdoor and facebook
unfortunately I know all my neighbors too well and some I'll hang out with others I avoid, like the acid casualty down the road
-
07-17-2019, 09:35 AM #7490
Well that is quite the rant over a beach property in the only NE state with a low tax burden, with one of the best school districts in the state. I'll say it again, seacoast NH hasn't been cheap since the 80's, and even then it probably felt pricey. Just because you think its overpriced doesn't mean it isn't cheap as hell for a guy making a buck twenty with three kids 45 minutes south and looking for a tax break and getting out of Malden (which is apparently kinda expensive now also but is still Malden). Dude is going to make the 1500 a month mortgage difference between 300 and 595 just in cost of living, let alone the school and the beach.
I wouldn't pay it either personally, but that doesn't mean plenty of other people will. I don't see how Trump has anything to do with this scenario. Beach property has been and will continue to be expensive for a place with a sea breeze, which personally smells crappy to me but whatever.Live Free or Die
-
07-17-2019, 10:11 AM #7491
It will continue to be expensive as long as you and I and every other taxpayer subdidizes cheap insurance for the owners.
-
07-17-2019, 10:39 AM #7492
-
07-17-2019, 10:54 AM #7493
-
07-17-2019, 10:57 AM #7494Live Free or Die
-
07-17-2019, 11:03 AM #7495Registered User
- Join Date
- Oct 2017
- Posts
- 202
QFT
not saying we should get rid of firestops or allow people to build high rises with flammable cladding, but governments talk about affordable housing and talk about government subsidizing expensive construction, while at the same time they throw up so many barriers to letting developers give people choices. there's reasonable code stuff, and then there's just a lot of legalistic bullshit and obstruction. plus zoning and opportunities for distant neighbors to tie up the process with lawsuits or complaints.
-
07-17-2019, 11:21 AM #7496
-
07-17-2019, 11:28 AM #7497
-
07-17-2019, 11:33 AM #7498
-
07-17-2019, 11:35 AM #7499Funky But Chic
- Join Date
- Sep 2001
- Location
- The Cone of Uncertainty
- Posts
- 49,306
There's no doubt that most coastal land would be undevelopable without Federal flood insurance (also a lot of inland property along rivers etc.). But the issue is somewhat complicated by the tax revenues government (mainly state and local) receives on that property,., which would essentially be zero if insurance was not available.
Also there are the construction and other jobs supported by that development, and other jobs in things like tourism, etc., and the tax revenues generated by that. For example, every marina in the country would probably be out of business without insurance, and those jobs would go, and recreational boating and fishing would take a huge hit, and those are substantial industries in their own right. And that's just one thing off the top of my head, I'm sure there's plenty more.
It's not quite as cut-and-dried as saying the Feds are giving away money. In the aggregate, is Federal flood insurance a good deal for the taxpayers? Probably not, but there are things on both sides of the ledger.
-
07-17-2019, 11:39 AM #7500
Bookmarks