Real Estate Crash thread

[cj001f]

More I think of it, how can you really depend on the, what, point something or other percent of the world who can come and go with their money? But what do I know. I'm an average nobody. I get to live the rest of my life like a schnook.

By keeping your laws liberal and your taxation and regulation light?

The US seems to be sliding backwards, or at least not making forward progress anymore, relative to the rest of the world.

[Benny Profane]

By keeping your laws liberal and your taxation and regulation light?

The US seems to be sliding backwards, or at least not making forward progress anymore, relative to the rest of the world.

Dude, I live in a place that celebrates America. Everybody in the world wants to come here, and they come here first. Christ, every gene in the world is partying here after they stood in line at the US emabassy at their origin country. As soon as they show up, it's,..... hey psssssst, buddy, no money down, own this space or buy this shiny thing, its ..........yours, yeah, go on, no, don't hug me or touch me, just sign this, and...this, and......this, and, well, congratulations! And Welcome to America! It's a Great Country! now get in line for the GWB.

[Game Over]

what will all this do to real estate prices in canada?

[4matic]

Ten Year Note rate hit 4.30% from 5.30% in June. Potential for historical low rates exists if economy weakens much more..

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quo...&freq=1&time=9

[rideit]

Market is finally cooling off a bit here.
That is a good thing.

[P_McPoser]

Inspector gadget or anyone else like that...Is it pretty tough to get loans right now with slightly better than average credit, short history, and 3% down? Or 80/20 loans? How's that playing out right about now? I'm thinking of flipping my condo in a few months and getting something bigger. Should end up with about 20k after comissions and fees, and looking in the neighborhood of 200-220k.

[mcsquared]

Inspector gadget or anyone else like that...Is it pretty tough to get loans right now with slightly better than average credit, short history, and 3% down? Or 80/20 loans? How's that playing out right about now? I'm thinking of flipping my condo in a few months and getting something bigger. Should end up with about 20k after comissions and fees, and looking in the neighborhood of 200-220k.

Just Monday I had a meeting with my mortgage guy at Countrywide and I asked him the exact same question. He said that as long as you have good credit and can prove your income (thats the big one). You will be fine. I asked about the 80/20 specifically since I am selling a house and that is the product the buyers are using.

[comish]

Just Monday I had a meeting with my mortgage guy at Countrywide and I asked him the exact same question. He said that as long as you have good credit and can prove your income (thats the big one). You will be fine. I asked about the 80/20 specifically since I am selling a house and that is the product the buyers are using.

Only other thing I would add is that are you borrowing >$417k, ie Jumbo or non conforming (and therefore purchasable by fannie/freddie etc) kinda a different story. Rates are high because most lenders don't want to make Jumbo's right now...

If below, carry on, no major worries.

What's up with the prove your income BS. Why should a borrower need to do that?

[warthog]

In case anyone cares what is going on on the construction side of things:

THE 2007 CREDIT CRUNCH - IMPACT ON CONSTRUCTION
By Robert Murray, Vice President of Economic Affairs

Information:
(800) 591-4462
http://mgh10.net/r/?ZXU=471037&ZXD=51238301

----------------------------------------------------------------------

THE 2007 CREDIT CRUNCH - IMPACT ON CONSTRUCTION

At mid-2007, the mounting turmoil in the financial and credit markets has raised concerns about the impact on the construction industry. During July and August, the financial stress widened - not just affecting subprime mortgage lenders, but also lenders engaged in more mainstream lending, as well as the stock market.

In August, the fears of a credit crunch picked up substantially, and the Federal Reserve took quick action to shore up liquidity - first by injecting billions of dollars into the U.S. financial system to keep the effective federal funds rate at 5.25%. The federal funds rate is the rate on overnight loans between banks. The Fed then lowered the discount rate from 6.25% to 5.75%. The discount rate is the rate at which banks can borrow directly from the Fed, which under more normal conditions they do rarely, since it may be viewed as a sign that a bank is struggling to raise funds from other sources. This reluctance seems to have been put aside for the moment, as the four largest U.S. banks (Citigroup, Bank of America, J.P. Morgan Chase, and Wachovia) borrowed $2 billion from the Fed, in a move to help encourage other banks to use the discount rate window.

The action by the Fed shows that it is willing to step in to keep the credit crunch from spiraling out of control. In its statement following the discount rate move, the Fed indicated that the "downside risks to growth have increased appreciably," and the Fed will act "to mitigate the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions in financial markets." A drop in the federal funds rate is now much more likely to take place in the near-term.

Just how severe the credit crunch will be is unclear, but other credit crises in 1987 and 1998 were contained by actions from the Fed. The impact on the construction industry will be negative, but it will also be varied by major sector.

* The correction for single family housing will be deepened and extended by the current financial stress. Mortgage availability has been diminished for prime borrowers and those needing "jumbo loans" (greater than $417,000), which will further dampen homebuyer demand. While single family housing construction had been expected to show some improvement by mid-2008, that period of strengthening activity has now been pushed back to 2009. The two-year (2006-2007) decline for single family starts will now be 38% to 40%, with starts down another 3% to 5% in 2008.
* The commercial project types will also be affected negatively, although to a lesser degree than single family housing, with the impact becoming more discernible in 2008. The year 2008 was already expected to see weaker activity - down 6% in value and 10% in square footage, and these declines may now be 10% to 12% in value and about 15% in square footage. The cushioning element here is that market fundamentals for the moment are still relatively healthy - office vacancy rates retreated further in second quarter 2007, hotel revenue per available room (revpar) is still rising in 2007, etc. Marginal projects will be deferred, but projects with sound financials are still likely to go ahead.
* The impact on the institutional structure types will be muted and may not show up until 2009, since much construction here is the result of money already raised through the bond market. State and local finances are expected to weaken over the next year, but at present they are still relatively healthy, which supports the institutional structure types such as schools.
* The impact on the public works market will also be muted. Transportation projects are being helped by this year's 10% increase in the federal-aid highway program. The renewed attention being directed at infrastructure repairs in the aftermath of the I-35W bridge collapse in Minneapolis will offset a push next year for spending restraint. The environmental categories (sewers, water supply, levees, etc.) are showing strength in response to either the need for infrastructure work or U.S. EPA mandates, and will only be modestly affected by the credit crunch.

Overall, total construction starts in 2008 had been expected to edge up 2% in current dollars, following a 6% decline this year. With the credit crunch further weakening single family housing and dampening commercial building, it is now likely that total construction starts in 2008 will see a current dollar decline of about 3%.

View story online at http://mgh10.net/r/?ZXU=471034&ZXD=51238301

[P_McPoser]

Just Monday I had a meeting with my mortgage guy at Countrywide and I asked him the exact same question. He said that as long as you have good credit and can prove your income (thats the big one). You will be fine. I asked about the 80/20 specifically since I am selling a house and that is the product the buyers are using.

Both loans i've done in my life so far I've had to prove my income...I didn't realize that wasn't always the case. Oh well, that's what I get for not reading the day the credit died thread, probably answered by question in there.

[Core Shot]

Greenspan is such an ass.
Turns out that when he said "froth" he really meant "bubble"

Oh, and he takes no blame for any of the credit issues related to the real estate bubble.

What.
A.
Pompous.
Asshole.

[Benny Profane]

Oh, don't blame him, now. Life was pretty good during his reign. Just imagine the whining and political uproar if he had prevented everyone and his sister from owning the "American Dream".

[4matic]

In the SF Bay Area rents and mortgage prices (with rates down) are starting to converge in favor of owning.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/object...1RVMVQ.DTL&o=3

[AKPogue]

I know next to nothing about finance and real estate. I don't see how you can blame Greenspan? I mean don't the people that try to buy a house that they can't afford, wouldn't they be responsible? Is it just me or don't people expect people to be responsible for any of their actions anymore? Is it always someone elses fault?

[Toadman]

Oh, don't blame him, now. Life was pretty good during his reign. Just imagine the whining and political uproar if he had prevented everyone and his sister from owning the "American Dream".

Technically you don't "own" the American Dream when you take out a mortgage. You get "owned" by the man. A few million people are finding this out the hard way these days.

[Benny Profane]

Interesting article about Greenspan's link to Ayn Rand, for all you running dog capitalist pigs out there. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/15/business/15atlas.html

I took my new sig from a review of his book in the Times. Shows he has a sense of humor about himself and his pronouncements over the years.

[Stu Gotz]

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that "the U.K. government will guarantee all deposits held with U.K.-based mortgage lender Northern Rock." In the worst case, this is a pledge to provide the largest single bailout in financial history. There are 30 billion pounds of customer deposits at Northern Rock alone. This goes far beyond the limited guarantees that the UK government has to protect depositors

I wonder, does the UK government now back all deposits in all financial institutions? See what happens when you start bailing out the stupids....

[Benny Profane]

well, it seems to me that they are trying to stop a classic bank run. Brits are only insured to 60 grand, not 100000, like here. Strange theat this is happening in this new age of electronic "bankless" financing, but, hey, those Brits love their traditions.

[Nobody Famous]

I think I read that bank 'suspended' all electronic transfers last week.

The exact details of the Brits guarantee are part of the run, ... "100% of the first £2,000 in any bank account and 90% of the next £33,000 - giving a maximum payout of £31,700 if a bank did go bust." Link. I think these folks are getting their money out in fear of losing £2,300, or 4600 USD.

[skier666]

We've been raising our rents in Santa Clara...demand is there, jobs are increasing in the Valley, and the harder it is to buy a house, the more people look to rent...thus raising rents.

[iceman]

Bottom Line: More people all the time, no new land.... real estate will ALWAYS pay off if you wait long enough.

Buying it on a no-doc loan with an ARM, well, I can't recommend that.

[Chemical Ali' The Wax Master]

the cool thing is that now that it is assumed there is going to be a rate cut tomorrow, oil hits record high. mother fucking mother fuckers

[Chainsaw_Willie]

I was hoping all this real estate turmoil would dampen prices around here, maybe even bring them down a bit. Nope, median price for a house in King County hit $500K this year, up 10% from last year and continuing a run of double-digit percentage increases that's been unbroken for nearly 10 years. I gotta find and marry a sugar momma.

[woodstocksez]

I was hoping all this real estate turmoil would dampen prices around here, maybe even bring them down a bit. Nope, median price for a house in King County hit $500K this year, up 10% from last year and continuing a run of double-digit percentage increases that's been unbroken for nearly 10 years. I gotta find and marry a sugar momma.

The median price statistics can be misleading.

For example, the median price can be significantly affected by the parts of the market in which transactions are taking place. For instance, it has been suggested that around here entry level properties aren't moving very well, while higher end stuff is doing better. The median price is remaining relatively stable. Yet my review of listings online makes it absolutely clear that significant price decreases are occurring. One reason for that may be a disproportionate number of high end properties currently being sold.

Also, the average size of houses has been increasing: an increase in median price may merely reflect that. Houses of the same size may be decreasing or remaining constant in price, but if the pool of houses being sold has an increasing average size, the median price may well increase.

In other words, the median price doesn't really tell you anything about what is being sold, so comparing median prices from two different times may be comparing apples to oranges. Prices may be dropping across the board while the median price is remaining constant or increasing.

[Benny Profane]

To coin a very tired cliche, it's about location, location these days, too. The NYT ran an article about the NYC suburban market, and the stuff closest to the city in nice neighborhoods and very close to the train lines in Westchester and LI are doing better than the fringe areas. There are signs that the MacMansions may be hurting, too. Retiring boomers don't need the hassle of all that......stuff.