To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[Skidog]

It’s not a choice in the military. You sign a contract and swear an oath. You’re basically government property. I had to get the anthrax vaccine before it had eua. Kids are fucking soft


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I know they have zero choice. Take it or gtfo. The resentment might never change for many.

The division in this country right now is nothing less than astounding

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[Harry]

2nd hand hearing a military mom whining about her enlisted kid having to take a dishonorable discharge instead of the vaccine.. Yikes, don't the military already get extra vaccinations before being deployed... and then get real bullets shot at them.. but would rather quit with a DD instead of disobey the cult that is no longer CIC?? We're fucked if this is a popular position in the ranks..

I say GOOD. Get those political hacks kicked out of the military.


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[JimmyCarter]

Um
Logic says…
Covid 19.

[muted reborn]

Um
Logic says…
Covid 19.

i like turtles

Shoulda typed 'When will a band call themselves...' but, I didn't do that.

[MultiVerse]

No 50% lean with the anti vax sentiment.

Anti-vax, as in unlikely to get vaccinated, is much lower than 50%. It's more like 20% with another 10% who are hesitant but not resistant.

One of the reasons why there are so many more deaths in America compared to other countries with similar vax rates is a lot of our anti-vaxers are older (10-15% of the +65) whereas in other countries vax hesitancy is proportionally younger.

[Game Over]

Simple math problem. Can you pass?

Choose one:

A) get covid and .68% chance of death.
B) get vaccinated and 0.00082% chance of dying from vaccine.

https://covid-101.org/science/whats-...-get-covid-19/

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34055843/

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If your going to be a smart ass at least read your links.

One study is on adverse reactions to vaccines
“Data on deaths following COVID-19 vaccination were obtained from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System”

And the other also had nothing to do with vaxed vs nonvaxed -> it was about about mortality rate among age groups.

All you calculated was adverse reactions vs. overall mortality. Good job!

[stuckathuntermtn]

So.....even less of a chance of dying?

[MultiVerse]

Yes, and it's not even close. 1-in-500 Americans have already died as a result of Covid. While people have coincidentally died after they also happened to be vaccinated, we're approaching 200 million vacinees and so far there have only been 3 confirmed deaths following the J&J vaccine.

[old goat]

I’m left with a familiar ambient unease that reminds me of being a guero in Taos and a gentile in Utah. Like, it’s mostly no big deal, and 99.99% ok, but sometimes there’s an exceptional situation that reveals an underlying local zeitgeist where I was The Unwelcome Other… And again, that’s all well and good until some shit hits the fan and suddenly you’re in the former Yugoslavia on the losing side of the ethnic cleansing.

That’s the sensation I get when I’m forced to reckon with the supposition that the vast majority of police and military are generally repulsed by my politics...as this past couple years of election/pandemic/civil unrest has revealed. I have a feeling of potential for disaster. So yeah, tidbits about the virulence of the antivax/racism/militia sympathies in law enforcement and the military give me a layer of nervousness I find difficult to shake off.

You're uncomfortable? How do you think my very liberal kid who's a surgeon in the Air Force working with Special Operators feels? He keeps his mouth shut, which let me tell you is very very hard for him to do. On top of that a very large percentage of his medical school class at the Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences were Mormons. (If he'd studied more and drank less in college maybe he could have gone to Stanford Med School and be making the big bucks now instead of eating sand wherever he is now.)

Um
Logic says…
Covid 19.

We should have all closed our computers and phones and turned on the TV after you posted that, because the forum is done for the day. See y'al tomorrow.

[Game Over]

So.....even less of a chance of dying?

Yes as Kinnikinnick pointed out you have a much greater chance of dying from covid than you do from adverse reactions to the vaccine.

so far there have only been 3 confirmed deaths following the J&J vaccine.

Wow. That’s awesome…. Crazy that this is not reported on.

[bennymac]

You're uncomfortable? How do you think my very liberal kid who's a surgeon in the Air Force working with Special Operators feels? He keeps his mouth shut, which let me tell you is very very hard for him to do. On top of that a very large percentage of his medical school class at the Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences were Mormons. (If he'd studied more and drank less in college maybe he could have gone to Stanford Med School and be making the big bucks now instead of eating sand wherever he is now.)



We should have all closed our computers and phones and turned on the TV after you posted that, because the forum is done for the day. See y'al tomorrow.

You son sounds super fucking cool (honestly). I can tell why you are so proud of him. Let him know some internet strangers tell him to keep up the good work.

[jono]

Choose one:

A) get covid and .68% chance of death.
B) get vaccinated and 0.00082% chance of dying from vaccine.

https://covid-101.org/science/whats-...-get-covid-19/

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34055843/

Math needs adjustment. As listed, scenario A is no vax, 100% certain exposure. Scenario B is vaccination and 0% chance of exposure. Obviously that's not what you want to represent, and that might be the whiff of bullshit some people smell. So let's adjust it.

I'll accept your numbers. But we want to compare the chance of death (for now) under these two scenarios: A you don't get vaccinated and B you do, and in both you have some chance of exposure. Let's assume the vaccine reduces your chance of death if infected to 1/11th of what it would be without the vaccine*. And let's assume you have an 85% chance of an exposure (might be higher but it doesn't change much). Chances of death look like this:

A) 0.85 x 0.0068 = 0.578%
B) 0.85 x .0068/11 + .0000082 = 0.0534%

A little better than 10x difference. Given the 1/6 chance of neuro effects with regular infection it would be worth knowing the odds ratio for neuro for vaccinated people and including other kinds of long-COVID. Odds of infecting someone, too. Makes sense that a lot of vaccinated people aren't just calling it good with the vax.

(*as just reported--assuming I understood that right and it wasn't just 11x better odds in general)

[skiJ]

Thanks for an answer that didn't head towards anger.

I agree it's scary, but I find myself asking, why does nearly 50% of the population feel this way? I can't blame one man, this anger existed way before that. I can't blame stupid, because I know people that are otherwise very smart not getting vaxxed...what the fuck happened?

What a shitshow.

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I believe you have raised an important question, though I believe your number is a little high
( I believe the percentage of people who are genuinely anti-(covid)-vaccination is closer to forty percent, but this not the piece of the question that is important )
the piece of the question that I think is important is how did we become do dedicated to disagree (?)

I see it in the pages of this thread - which has some genuinely Excellent information. ! and about four people who seem determined to argue - about anything.

ultimately, I think we have to take personal responsibility ( blame ourselves ) -
I have spent a lot of time in the last year asking how someone in a Police uniform could kneel on another person until George Floyd suffocated.
a hundred miles from the home of my youth, and in a region I still call home, it has been a difficult picture to reconcile
( I avoided the video for ,,, more than a year, and only saw a snippet as it ambushed me. ... )

there are cliches' about 'the evil men do. . . ' dog. )


contributing factors -
the media. which seems to be about entertainment, more than reporting the news -
as I read, I watch for key words that generate emotion, and if I start seeing those emotional words, I stop reading
( it is no longer a news report. it is,,, the author's bias )

our elected politicians. their job is to govern. and in a democracy or at least a republic, governing effectively requires compromise ! !!
there was a story, that back in the day, the state's legislators and senators would argue passionately...
senators would address their senate opponents as, 'my friend, the senator from X, ...' and
at the end of the day, they would set aside their differences, and go for dinner.

I have not heard a story like that in almost thirty years...


ia-s hits on something important a few posts up that I think actually reflects on something that was a bigger part of the first century of this country, than those of us born forty or sixty years ago are familiar with - differences between people of different origins and working through those differences. perhaps WWII served to unite Americans for several generations, but we are largely a Country of immigrants ! !

now, as ia-s comments, those differences have re-emerged as significant
( as much as I want to leave politics out of this, the former president, ,,, promoted,,, the idea that emphasizing these differences was okay. it should not be (okay). ).

in the wisdom of the founding fathers',
" We the People of the United States, in order to form a more perfect Union... "

If we believe in the Country, ,,,


so. I am working on owning my share.
I am careful where I get my 'News', and I am Much more cautious than I was ten years ago and twenty years ago...

wag more, Bark less...

argue less. Be more persuasive -

to this thread and this issue, promote Vaccination And civility ( name-calling is not going to persuade anyone )
( with immunity from infection AND Vaccination, we will eventually minimize this disease and this virus ( if it takes six years, I will be old. ) )

Skidog has asked a good question ( how did we get here? )
some maggs are working hard in the pages of this thread to show us a solution will be found ( Thank you, LSL, Multi-, MUnicorn and others )

please join us.

Respectfully. tj

[MultiVerse]

Wow. That’s awesome…. Crazy that this is not reported on.

I think it's a tricky topic to get right because there are so many conspiracy theories. The chemist Derek Lowe does a good job describing why:

We’re talking about treating very, very large populations, which means that you’re going to see the usual run of mortality and morbidity that you see across large samples. Specifically, if you take 10 million people and just wave your hand back and forth over their upper arms, in the next two months you would expect to see about 4,000 heart attacks. About 4,000 strokes. Over 9,000 new diagnoses of cancer. And about 14,000 of that ten million will die, out of usual all-causes mortality. No one would notice. That’s how many people die and get sick anyway.

But if you took those ten million people and gave them a new vaccine instead, there’s a real danger that those heart attacks, cancer diagnoses, and deaths will be attributed to the vaccine. I mean, if you reach a large enough population, you are literally going to have cases where someone gets the vaccine and drops dead the next day (just as they would have if they *didn’t* get the vaccine). It could prove difficult to convince that person’s friends and relatives of that lack of connection, though. Post hoc ergo propter hoc is one of the most powerful fallacies of human logic, and we’re not going to get rid of it any time soon. Especially when it comes to vaccines. The best we can do, I think, is to try to get the word out in advance. Let people know that such things are going to happen, because people get sick and die constantly in this world. The key will be whether they are getting sick or dying at a noticeably higher rate once they have been vaccinated.

[old goat]

You son sounds super fucking cool (honestly). I can tell why you are so proud of him. Let him know some internet strangers tell him to keep up the good work.

Thank you. I know I brag on him way too much. Our other son is in Boston, so zero chance that his liberal politics will be challenged. I just wish he hadn't used my cell phone number when he made a political donation at some point. I've been getting texted relentlessly by Boston city council candidates. But I'm proud I raised him to be that clever.

[SumJongGuy]

What the fuck happened?

Popular opinion about quite a few things has changed DRAMATICALLY in the past 20-30 years. Much of it is what Trump and co are taking from the dog whistle to me megaphone. But, there are some pretty bright people who still aren't on board with big chunks of the new normal. Being obstinate to the vaccine and even masks fully aware it is against their best interest is a form of protest against something or many things in that new normal. I'd wager that it's homophobia more than anything else that some of the brighter people can't get past.. Islamaphobia (or just more cautious of Muslim folks) is probably next on the list of things (seemingly) pretty bright people who are protesting diverge from the new popular views.

Many of these folks will straight up tell you they aren't any of those things, but actually sorta are in reality. The suspicion and not taking the new normals at face value without more skepticism than the rest of us also applies to occums razor about vaccines for them.

[LongShortLong]

What the fuck happened?

Popular opinion about quite a few things has changed DRAMATICALLY in the past 20-30 years. Much of it is what Trump and co are taking from the dog whistle to me megaphone. But, there are some pretty bright people who still aren't on board with big chunks of the new normal. Being obstinate to the vaccine and even masks fully aware it is against their best interest is a form of protest against something or many things in that new normal. I'd wager that it's homophobia more than anything else that some of the brighter people can't get past.. Islamaphobia (or just more cautious of Muslim folks) is probably next on the list of things (seemingly) pretty bright people who are protesting diverge from the new popular views.

Many of these folks will straight up tell you they aren't any of those things, but actually sorta are in reality. The suspicion and not taking the new normals at face value without more skepticism than the rest of us also applies to occums razor about vaccines for them.

Good question. Not sure if addressing it goes here or in PR, but it's the elephant in the national room, and a factor that both impedes vaccination and is antagonized by vaccination.

I don't think it can be countered with math, science, or reason, though those arguments are useful to anyone receptive. If reason were enough, they'd've snapped out of it after Nov 4, when the pandemic not only continued but surged. There's a deeper issue than political division and mild conspiratorial thinking causing trouble.

For some I maintain contact with, the cult analogy seems appropriate. However it's important to be aware that we are seen as a cult as well, blindly following the media lies promoted by the deep state. In the past, I've only encountered this depth of belief when talking to deeply religious folks and only on their faith's dogma. Many of this new group seem to be in a dark place, anti-civilization even. Trump is a symptom, or gas on their fire, not the cause. Social media algorithms are yet more gas. The racism or homophobia I feel is also a symptom. I think the root issues are control, autonomy, and connectedness. And our economic focus on wealth extraction has deprived too many of all three.

I don't know enough of sociology or humans to figure what's up, how dangerous it might be. Maybe it's the modern expression of 1960's social angst and will pass. Maybe it's different and we need to lead people out.

[old goat]

I'd prefer to never again hear or read the phrase "new normal".

[mfcf13]

Good question. Not sure if addressing it goes here or in PR, but it's the elephant in the national room, and a factor that both impedes vaccination and is antagonized by vaccination.

I don't think it can be countered with math, science, or reason, though those arguments are useful to anyone receptive. If reason were enough, they'd've snapped out of it after Nov 4, when the pandemic not only continued but surged. There's a deeper issue than political division and mild conspiratorial thinking causing trouble.

For some I maintain contact with, the cult analogy seems appropriate. However it's important to be aware that we are seen as a cult as well, blindly following the media lies promoted by the deep state. In the past, I've only encountered this depth of belief when talking to deeply religious folks and only on their faith's dogma. Many of this new group seem to be in a dark place, anti-civilization even. Trump is a symptom, or gas on their fire, not the cause. Social media algorithms are yet more gas. The racism or homophobia I feel is also a symptom. I think the root issues are control, autonomy, and connectedness. And our economic focus on wealth extraction has deprived too many of all three.

I don't know enough of sociology or humans to figure what's up, how dangerous it might be. Maybe it's the modern expression of 1960's social angst and will pass. Maybe it's different and we need to lead people out.

Come to the 98118. We are pushing 90% vaccination rate and we don't have trumpers, and very few vitamin d, 'healthy living' weirdos.

[abraham]

Come to the 98118... vitamin d

Pretty sure he's further North.

[LongShortLong]

Come to the 98118. We are pushing 90% vaccination rate and we don't have trumpers, and very few vitamin d, 'healthy living' weirdos.

I'm in a further south, similar tech-bro county, higher vax rate than you :P. Poke more arms. I don't think covid can tell age, so your/our overall rates are near 70%. Between that and an indoor mask order, cases here are falling ~10% per week recently.

[Skidog]

Here's another example of weirdness. An officer? That's a career for life, you don't quit something you've devoted your life to for nothing right? Wow fucking just WOW


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[MagnificentUnicorn]

Here's another example of weirdness. An officer? That's a career for life, you don't quit something you've devoted your life to for nothing right? Wow fucking just WOW


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He’s a fool. He just gave up a decent lifetime pension and healthcare. He just needs 20 years, a year short.

I can understand the people against civilian mandates even if I might not agree with all their points but you’re in the military and you volunteered, signed the contract/took the commission and pledged the oath. Grow up you babies.


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[MultiVerse]

The Reddit thread is teh funneh: Girl, bye


Based on him currently having 47 days of leave and 62 at time of separation, he submitted this letter about 6 months before he separates (@2.5 days of leave per month). He also states “over 19 years” of service, so I’m willing to bet he’s simply retiring at his normal 20 years and using the vaccine mandate as an excuse to grandstand his (flawed) politics.

I’d imagine he’s a douche of an Officer, and his Command is thrilled he’s leaving.


I dont get why anyone in the military would be opposed to a Vaccine. Do you have any Idea how many they already have? Shit when I was active I was required to get the experimental Anthrax Vaccine, nobody gave a fuck! In boot camp you walk down a long ass hall way lined with nurses and recieve like 20 different shots from airguns and you dont even know what your getting. To go through all that and oppose a Vaccine for Corona Virus makes 0 sense.

They're opposed to it because the right-wing media they consume has told them to be opposed to it.

That letter was dripping with talking points lifted from right-wing social media and speeches by anti-vax politicians.

These people call themselves the free thinkers too.

[ex-powderbroker]

ski dog i missed your reply, what fifty percent?

it does seem like an unreasonable amount of military and police are caught up in the culture wars politics of the moment, i agree.

btw, that resignation predates the mandate by a couple of weeks, right?

sounds like a kook.