TAHOE: LAND OF THE SNOWFLAKES -- 17/18 STOKE

[gnarbro365]

This is impressive...

[~mikey b]

I don’t like it

[NorCalNomad]

At least no surface hoar?

[bodywhomper]

Really?
I've had my fill of the Lycra crowd in France, with 68 mm 155 skis.

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But ski ballet....

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[LongShortLong]

At least no surface hoar?

That graph says warmer than average, does not say how much warmer. Not expert at hoaring, but guess thin snowpack + cold clear nights means trouble once it does snow. Would be a good corn cycle for south faces if they hold any snow. North faces ought to turn to sugar.

gnarbro365 - what specifically is impressive? Not a meteorologist, warmer in west / colder in east indicates an omega/rex block, right? I.e. one of the normal winter patterns. Is it unusual to have probabilities that strong two weeks out? NASA put up an impressively capable new polar satellite a month ago (JPSS-1) - is it feeding better data into the models already?

[NorCalNomad]

That graph says warmer than average, does not say how much warmer. Not expert at hoaring, but guess thin snowpack + cold clear nights means trouble once it does snow. Would be a good corn cycle for south faces if they hold any snow. North faces ought to turn to sugar.

Just trying to find the silver lining along the idea that the warmer days would melt the hoar.

[powdork]

surface hoar will get knocked down some with the heat we're forecast next week if that happens. with an extended dry spell and snowpack that ends above lake level we'll have an elevation ring with a weak basal layer too.

[lepistoir]

i don't suppose you put them on the wrong way?

Been there.

[Ottime]

Surface hoar is pretty easy to destroy with sun, heat, wind. It is the basal layer forming that will fuck travel for a good while.

I'll be skiing soon. I clan walk all the way across a room already. Way I figure, the real winter is waiting for me to heal. Y'all should send me vibes, and maybe even gifts, so I heal up quick and winter comes.

[avacadotoast]

Rose was great on Saturday...super nice windbuff on slide side and a certain ridiculous pow stash. Thankfully we were there before the snow so we knew where to go (to avoid the rocks) because yesterday was spectacular!! I'm TIRED!! The guy that got carted out of the trees is a friend of mine (assuming there wasn't another one)...he got a broken pelvis for his 50th birthday

[TahoeJ]

So when does the December corn cycle start? Ugh. May have to call an audible and head for BC soon.

[Robojerry]

gnarbro365 - what specifically is impressive? Not a meteorologist, warmer in west / colder in east indicates an omega/rex block, right? I.e. one of the normal winter patterns. Is it unusual to have probabilities that strong two weeks out? NASA put up an impressively capable new polar satellite a month ago (JPSS-1) - is it feeding better data into the models already?

What's most impressive is the amplitude of the wave pattern that's setting up. It's unusual to have such a strongly amplified ridge, with above freezing temps pushing all the way up into northern Alaska, coupled with such a deep trough, dragging below freezing temps all the way down to Florida. It's also unusual to see such a highly amplified pattern remain so static for such a long duration (no change forecasted in the next 2 weeks).

Usually there is more energy spanning the Pacific in the upper level winds (jet stream) this time of year that leads to a more progressive pattern, where ridges and troughs get pushed from west to east over time, leading to alternating periods of high pressure/low pressure along the west coast. Basically, a big ass standing wave is establishing itself in the upper level flow for the next 2+ weeks.

Classic La Nina pattern though, with a fired up jet in the west pacific driven by higher-than-average tropical convection over by Indonesia (cuz the water's hotter than usual over there), that then just sort of falls apart and becomes all flacid in the east pacific due to lower-than-average convection off ecuador (b/c of colder ocean temps associated w/ la nina).

That split in the jet stream has been gradually working it's way east this fall as the temp gradient between the N Pole and equator strengthens. Hopefully that continues a bit more, or we at least see some of that energy in the W Pac get ejected east from time to time this winter (w/ the MJO).

[LongShortLong]

Thanks for extra details.

I found the description for that graph http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...look=814&var=t

The graph does give some indication of how much warmer, though would require more digging.

The A regions on the map show probability that temperature falls in the highest third of the climatology period, which is 1981-2010. So, if we knew the high temps for the tenth warmest Dec 11-17 days of the climatology period, it's 75-80% likely the upcoming Dec 11-17 will be as warm or warmer.

My guess is Dec 11-17 are usually cold, even when they are at the warmer end of the range.

More digging, looking at 11 years of caples lake Sno-tel (CAP 2000-10 on Dec 14's), roughly eyeballing, the low third of the high temps are below freezing, the middle third are below say 42, the the top third ranges as high as 52 (in 2004). example query. CAP Snotel seems reasonably reflective of Kirkwood base. So, two weeks out, we're looking at highs in the 40s, maybe as high as low 50. IME these highs, especially in December, are cool enough to preserve powder for days and chalk for weeks (ice too if it forms).

So, get out there, ski, and post pics. I'm still gimped up from 3 years ago, and depend on you all for vicarious thrills. Keep up the good work.

[Quadzilla]

Well, another interesting read on the latest.


http://weatherwest.com/archives/5982

[meter-man]

Oops sorry guys, I really pushed a fart out the other day and looked what I did:



On Saturday, west face at 9k skied like sugary deliciousness. Solid snowpack. SE face was variable - crusty in the sun, and pow in the shadows.

Guess I’ll take a trip down to Ocean Beach this week. These blocking highs produce really clean surf.

[~mikey b]

Big ups to Tahoe Sports Hub for a quick NTN mount for me today. Couple hour turn around.

[tahoearmada]

every time I climb those stairs I worry that it will be my last... I wonder how the bottom terminal looks?

[meter-man]

every time I climb those stairs I worry that it will be my last... I wonder how the bottom terminal looks?

It seemed to be standing just fine, but I didn't look that closely.

[Eastern Sierra Skier]

Word for the day at Rose?? F#cking cold!! Winds out of the East and a pesky cloud sitting over top of it all day made for some “brisk” skiing. When I left at 3:00 the air temp was 18 deg. Wind chill was probably single digit to very low teens at best. Snow on the groomers was pretty good. They had every gun on the mtn going full blast all day. Make it while you can before the high pressure of all highs takes over.

[dookeyXXX]

i don't suppose you put them on the wrong way?

Wait, there's a wrong way?

Also, while I know none of you hardcore broletariats give a flying fiznuck about Gnarthstar, it skied pretty decent today. No crowds (surprise!) and the non-groomers were nice and chalky.
I'll echo what Eastern Sierra Skier said: it was brisk (wish I'd had mittens and an extra layer on) and they had guns blazing all day...

[gnarbro365]

gnarbro365 - what specifically is impressive?

My left brain says this...

What's most impressive is the amplitude of the wave pattern that's setting up. It's unusual to have such a strongly amplified ridge, with above freezing temps pushing all the way up into northern Alaska, coupled with such a deep trough, dragging below freezing temps all the way down to Florida.

My right brain is quite satisfied by how perfectly/equally the country is split by the pretty colors.

[The Dad]

none of you hardcore broletariats give a flying fiznuck about Gnarthstar

To be clear, we give no fiznucks whatsoever - flying, running, swimming, stationary... and most certainly, not a single skiing fiznuck.

[TurxSki]

Mt Rose is remaining family owned.
It has been taken off the market.

[El Chupacabra]

Mt Rose is remaining family owned.
It has been taken off the market.

Good news.

http://www.rgj.com/story/life/outdoo...ned/923722001/

[Eastern Sierra Skier]

Rose is so much warmer this afternoon vs yesterday. Very enjoyable session today.