Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[GoldMember]

Hudge change in the IHME numbers for Alabama is a driver for a large percentage of the statistical differences in the projected national totals, yet nothing drastic has changed there (to my knowledge) except that they instituted a stay-at-home order the day before yesterday. However the previous totals claimed that they were based on stay-at-home orders being issued by now iirc. I'd like to see the previous iteration of their projections to compare AL and other states, does anyone know where I might find those?

Washington State numbers in IHME improved quite a bit over the weekend as well. We're now projected to be at the top of the curve for deaths as of today and maximum resources use peaked on April 2. Total deaths now projected at 632 whereas it was 943 just a couple of days ago. Hopefully things will be better overall than the earlier draconian projections. Fingers crossed...

[BigDaddy]

As any good contractor will tell you, it's always better to over estimate and then come in under budget. Fingers crossed, too...

[The SnowShow]

Ya, the data was updated yesterday. I noticed Washington is now past peak resource day (peak resource day was April 2). All of the West coast states appear to be doing very, very well with much lower death numbers than previously forecasted. Washington and Oregon are giving away ventilators to NY.

I was wondering the same. CO’s peak was forecasted at 2 weeks from now with us being about halfway up the steep climb to the peak; now we’re 2 days from peak, with the number of deaths dropping off. Cautiously optimistic locally but worried for the country as a whole.

[Adolf Allerbush]

I was wondering about then when I’m skinning, biking, running. I might start recreating with a face mask.

As I've heard it, something like a surgical mask only keeps you from infecting others, not visa versa. I'm sure it offers some protection from contracting the disease, but that's not the purpose of the masks.

[The AD]

Well, that’s pretty fucking stupid for multiple reasons IMO.

If it was an antibody test that’d be another story.

I think they're both valuable. How else can we really get a good handle on the extent of this outbreak? You can't just test people who are sick and hope to get the big picture.

[Benny Profane]

X

[MultiVerse]

All hands on deck: Bill Gates is funding new factories for 7 potential coronavirus vaccines, even though it will waste billions of dollars


Gates said he was picking the top seven vaccine candidates and building manufacturing capacity for them. “Even though we’ll end up picking at most two of them, we’re going to fund factories for all seven, just so that we don’t waste time in serially saying, ‘OK, which vaccine works?’ and then building the factory,” he said.

Gates said that simultaneously testing and building manufacturing capacity is essential to the quick development of a vaccine, which Gates thinks could take about 18 months.

…”It’ll be a few billion dollars we’ll waste on manufacturing for the constructs that don’t get picked because something else is better,” Gates said in the clip. “But a few billion in this, the situation we’re in, where there’s trillions of dollars … being lost economically, it is worth it.”

https://www.businessinsider.com/bill...navirus-2020-4

[rideit]

Wayon Jennings has a song about that, High Time.... "I'm sick and tired of waking up sick and tired"

Get well!

Although I think that is more about alcoholism.

[BmillsSkier]

You're no Hemingway, that's for sure.

We should be so lucky:

Hemingway quarantined with his wife... and mistress

[Adolf Allerbush]

Well, that’s pretty fucking stupid for multiple reasons IMO.

If it was an antibody test that’d be another story.

Why?

[Adolf Allerbush]

Although I think that is more about alcoholism.

and cocaine

[Benny Profane]

All hands on deck: Bill Gates is funding new factories for 7 potential coronavirus vaccines, even though it will waste billions of dollars


Gates said he was picking the top seven vaccine candidates and building manufacturing capacity for them. “Even though we’ll end up picking at most two of them, we’re going to fund factories for all seven, just so that we don’t waste time in serially saying, ‘OK, which vaccine works?’ and then building the factory,” he said.

Gates said that simultaneously testing and building manufacturing capacity is essential to the quick development of a vaccine, which Gates thinks could take about 18 months.

…”It’ll be a few billion dollars we’ll waste on manufacturing for the constructs that don’t get picked because something else is better,” Gates said in the clip. “But a few billion in this, the situation we’re in, where there’s trillions of dollars … being lost economically, it is worth it.”

https://www.businessinsider.com/bill...navirus-2020-4

History repeats . Just like Canegie, Gates sanitizes his legacy as a billionaire who got there by operating an illegal Monopoly and creating a culture in America that spawned a mutant like Zuckerberg. But, at least he's not Trump.

[altasnob]

Hudge change in the IHME numbers for Alabama is a driver for a large percentage of the statistical differences in the projected national totals, yet nothing drastic has changed there (to my knowledge) except that they instituted a stay-at-home order the day before yesterday. However the previous totals claimed that they were based on stay-at-home orders being issued by now iirc. I'd like to see the previous iteration of their projections to compare AL and other states, does anyone know where I might find those?

Some of the info you are looking for can be found on this page

www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

[Ted Striker]

3 Weeks.
I'm really tired of being sick.

Wow. Hopefully, that little flare up will be the last of it.

[truckeelocal]

History repeats . Just like Canegie, Gates sanitizes his legacy as a billionaire who got there by operating an illegal Monopoly and creating a culture in America that spawned a mutant like Zuckerberg. But, at least he's not Trump.

Way to beat up on success. That's a very negative way to view his rise to the top. Another is that a legacy company, IBM, didn't have the vision to leverage cheap computing so Gates stepped into the vacuum and was mega-compensated for his success.

[Bunion 2020]

by operating an illegal Monopoly

People who read that are stupider by a factor of 10.

[simple]

History repeats . Just like Canegie, Gates sanitizes his legacy as a billionaire who got there by operating an illegal Monopoly and creating a culture in America that spawned a mutant like Zuckerberg. But, at least he's not Trump.

Wtf are you even talking about? Yeah billionaires donate to cleanse their reputation but Gates is a bit more involved than a donator. Plus the culture comment is bizarre. Feel free to try to explain.

[MultiVerse]

History repeats . Just like Canegie, Gates sanitizes his legacy as a billionaire who got there by operating an illegal Monopoly and creating a culture in America that spawned a mutant like Zuckerberg. But, at least he's not Trump.

Meh. Good on the Gates and the Gates Foundation! Billionaire philanthropists > people with small hands.

[GeezerSteve]

Bunny sees the cost of everything and the value of nothing

[Ted Striker]

But he does know the importance of being earnest.

[Jax]

3 Weeks.
I'm really tired of being sick.

It took me awhile to get caught up on this thread. Glad you're kicking this thing, keep it up! Better days soon. Thanks for sharing your ordeal.

[Deebased]

This might be premature, and tangential, but it looks like the flu has all but disappeared from a surveillance standpoint as a result of social distancing and lockdown measures.

Week 13 ended Sunday, March 29. Compare 2020 week 13 with 2019 week 13 which was still the height of the flu season last year. And with any luck COVID-19 is seasonal as well:

Why does anyone continue to believe it might be seasonal?

Countries close to the equator continue to be ravaged. Perhaps at a slightly slower pace or perhaps because they started later on the curve.

[Deebased]

Might want to change that to countries.

[Benny Profane]

Way to beat up on success. That's a very negative way to view his rise to the top. Another is that a legacy company, IBM, didn't have the vision to leverage cheap computing so Gates stepped into the vacuum and was mega-compensated for his success.

He was successfully sued by both the Department of Justice and the EU for his illegal business practices. But, yeah, suck cess.
Now we have Facebook, Uber, AirBnB, and countless other suckcessfull companies breaking laws and trying to be monopolies in their own time. They watched and learned.

[old goat]

Well, that’s pretty fucking stupid for multiple reasons IMO.

If it was an antibody test that’d be another story.

It will tell us the number of asymptomatic carriers which is important for modeling the increase in cases which is important in obtaining and allocating resources (as if we had any resources). It is also important in convincing people to wear masks. And it is important in devising a testing strategy--if it turned out that the number of asymptomatic carriers is very low than a policy of only testing people would make sense. If there are a lot of aysmptomatics than a policy of testing asymptomatic contacts would make sense--which means a lot more expense and effort.
An antibody test would be nice too.