Real Estate Crash thread

[Meadow Skipper]

Santa Fe County (NM) puts some restrictions on STRs, sparks some pissing/moaning/pushback.
https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/airbn...y-in-santa-fe/

The ordinance says any property bought after Nov. 26, 2022 will not be eligible to become a short-term rental property for another year. But, if you currently have a place you want to turn into an Airbnb, you only have until March 15 to get it licensed through the county.

[yeahman]

^^Oh no, $375, boohoo. Anybody who wants to run an illegal hotel out of a residentially zoned neighborhood can eat shit.

[Meadow Skipper]

^^Oh no, $375, boohoo. Anybody who wants to run an illegal hotel out of a residentially zoned neighborhood can eat shit.

But…mah freedumb!

[Ted Striker]

Anybody who wants to run an illegal hotel out of a residentially zoned neighborhood can eat shit.

Living in an area rife with them, I'm inclined to agree.

[PNWbrit]

Living in an area rife with them, I'm inclined to agree.

I'll bite.

Exactly how is it illegal?

[Ted Striker]

It's Friday night, I've been drinking beer, and being less than 100% serious.

But if I were, there are people here (who I know personally) that circumvent the local restrictions.

Specifically this:
In Residential Zoning Districts:
STRs are limited to one per operator.
The dwelling unit, including accessory dwelling units, hosting the STR must serve as the primary residence of the owner or long-term renter (with at least a 270-day lease) for at least 270 days/year and the whole unit may be rented no more than 95 days/year.

https://cob.org/services/planning/de...t-term-rentals

[Shredhead]

Huh.

I had the most rentals I've ever had this summer.

Ski season bookings coming in strong too.

People are staying closer to home and choosing lower cost vacations.

Aspen’s bookings are down 30%.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Name Redacted]

People are staying closer to home and choosing lower cost vacations.

Aspen’s bookings are down 30%.

Breck is just down 13% for xmas/ny week, they blame that on the holiday falling on a Sunday though. Rest of the mountain towns are around 13% down. I say that's a good thing for now. Shit was crazy the last few years (decade), and no one has the staff to properly accommodate the tourist surge anymore. These towns need to take a step back and reevaluate how they operate, and many are. Less events to draw people in, less marketing dollars being thrown around, etc.

https://www.summitdaily.com/news/tou...es-to-a-close/

It'll be interesting to see how all of the new building that has been going on will effect the economy and workforce in these towns. Will if offset the decline in tourism? A lot of the building here hasn't even been finished yet, but once it is done, and people move in, we will see what the effects are. Of course, a lot of these are still $1M+ 2br/2ba condos that we are talking about, not you usual dirtbag employee housing. Many have restrictions on STRs so they might be full/part time residences for people who'll actually live and spend money here, earning their income by WFH or something.

[liv2ski]

Stay in a hotel. Fuck STR.

Last year I had a STR for 30 days for $2,800. That is impossible to get in a hotel at Mammoth. With the price increases, I will just have to try and stay at the ski clubs quanza hut 10-15 days this winter. Not a big fan, as it is a bunk bed and a shower/toilet with nothing else, so kind of like camping, but it is cheap, to offset the cost of hotel rooms, for the other 15 days.

[Ted Striker]

You guys are talking about destination lodging. I have no problem with that. What I (somewhat lightly) object to is profiteering from turning urban neighborhood housing into high turnover commercial operations. Especially in areas that lack the infrastructure to handle the extra parking and garbage. Luckily, at least we don't get the partiers.

And then there's the question of taking that much LTR out of the market, and the resulting labor shortage from lack of affordable housing.

Yeah, yeah, I know. Broken record

[fastfred]

Breck is just down 13% for xmas/ny week, they blame that on the holiday falling on a Sunday though. Rest of the mountain towns are around 13% down. I say that's a good thing for now. Shit was crazy the last few years (decade), and no one has the staff to properly accommodate the tourist surge anymore. These towns need to take a step back and reevaluate how they operate, and many are. Less events to draw people in, less marketing dollars being thrown around, etc.

https://www.summitdaily.com/news/tou...es-to-a-close/

It'll be interesting to see how all of the new building that has been going on will effect the economy and workforce in these towns. Will if offset the decline in tourism? A lot of the building here hasn't even been finished yet, but once it is done, and people move in, we will see what the effects are. Of course, a lot of these are still $1M+ 2br/2ba condos that we are talking about, not you usual dirtbag employee housing. Many have restrictions on STRs so they might be full/part time residences for people who'll actually live and spend money here, earning their income by WFH or something.

things are so fucked up there is no "going back" to whatever fantasy everyone has in their head that summit county should be
the growth here is literally out of control you can't put the genie back in the bottle
we will never build enough "affordable housing" to keep up with the demand and how is a 600k house or townhome affordable? we will just keep building and building no need to worry because it has already imploded there is no way out at this point

the winter green development will extend all the way to the dillon cemetery at some point in the future
sure single family homes will be in short supply but stack a shack shit box condos will over take everything
the new development/condo building in river run keystone is massive like fucking huge and in breck when all of city market to the new parking garage gets developed it will blow peoples minds, no one is really paying atteniton till the stuff gets built and then they are like "what the hell you can't do that"

heard a rumor keystone is trying to become a municipality oh boy '

blaming shit on short term rentals work from home what ever easy target you can find is bullshit this place is fucked but hey I know who pays my bills

[summit]

heard a rumor keystone is trying to become a municipality oh boy '

True. It will go to a vote.

[fastfred]

True. It will go to a vote.

Yeah but what are the odds it passes?
The guy I talked to said it'll pass
What'd you think
Everytime someone tries to do a lid over there it gets a smack down god forbid we pay taxes what about vails 2 or 3% sales tax they collect? Will tge city of keystone give that the ax and it'll goto the new city? Vail will be pissed.

[summit]

Yeah but what are the odds it passes?
The guy I talked to said it'll pass
What'd you think
Everytime someone tries to do a lid over there it gets a smack down god forbid we pay taxes what about vails 2 or 3% sales tax they collect? Will tge city of keystone give that the ax and it'll goto the new city? Vail will be pissed.

I estimate chances of passing as 2 outa 3. There are a very small number of people who can vote on this. They have enough signatures to have a special election to incorporate as home rule. Only 208 signatures... very very very very very very few people were eligible to even sign it as you had to both live in Keystone (registered voter) AND be a property owner (no LLC).

The basic argument is that the Keystone zone generates vastly more revenue for the county than is expended on the zone by the county, so why not incorporate and put that money to work in the community that generates it without having to raise taxes on residents or have additional sales taxes? If it happens I hope it works out this way!

This makes a lot of sense at first glance, especially vs BOCC inattention to Keystone, and one of the BOCCs recent votes against the interest of Keystone residents in a permitting process which, though the community prevailed, was viewed as a close shave.

I am concerned that losing economies of scale in governmental operations will quickly outweigh that the excess revenue... plus small town politics having an orgy with the good-idea-fairy... will cause taxes to go up.

I am also concerned that major primary issues brought forth as justifications to incorporate are not actually issue incorporation will provide the power to solve (US 6 traffic and ROW issues, lack of policing, affordable housing).

I don't think Vail is stoked on the idea because a home rule town could levy lift ticket taxes, lodging taxes, etc, which I would hope would be the direction of taxation vs a general sales tax or primary residence property tax.

You can learn more here: https://incorporatekeystone.wildapricot.org/

[Name Redacted]

Keystone will tear itself apart fighting over tax dollars and shit. It'll be fun to watch. I just hope they don't try to wrap the Cove into it.

[summit]

Keystone will tear itself apart fighting over tax dollars and shit. It'll be fun to watch. I just hope they don't try to wrap the Cove into it.

Mountain Town Politics... really haven't every wish to have that added on for me. I've watched all the other town politics from afar and never though, "wow I wish I had a town council too."

Summit Cove is not included in the proposal:

https://incorporatekeystone.wildapri...Town%20Map.pdf

Since it seems inevitable, I am advocating for the Town Charter to be written in a way to protect against some shenanigans and make things better than not for the residents.

[fastfred]

thanks for the input summit
its pretty interesting scenario of what could happen
if some rich guy gets pissed at his tax rate increase without "representation" or if vail loses their shit over loss of their resort tax and control they exert over the area it could be tangled up in lawsuits
also I see vail tossing the bus system up in the air since the resort tax supposably funds the bus system years ago breck and vail were at war over bus routes and funding

the road past flying dutchmen condos to the back ranch is in shit condition and if you add up the amount of taxes all those people pay back there you'd think the county could pave it
and why the fuck has the county been dumping millions and millions of dollars of road improvements in the summit cove? that blows my mind but I do know who lives back there and why the money is funneled there but WTF?

and seeing as how the town and county can't keep an hire any employees from the top down I don't see how this new town can hire a manager and staff needed the kicker unless the keystone neighbourhood company will become the gov't ha ha

[fastfred]

just read through the proposal what a mess
3 million dollar budget? kicking everything back to the hoa's making them responsible for road maintenance
pretty much all their numbers are way too low unless they are planning on running some joke of town like blue river
their set up to fail is massive it all boils down to numbers and their numbers are not there they need to raise taxes big time good luck with that

[yeahman]

Last year I had a STR for 30 days for $2,800. That is impossible to get in a hotel at Mammoth. With the price increases, I will just have to try and stay at the ski clubs quanza hut 10-15 days this winter. Not a big fan, as it is a bunk bed and a shower/toilet with nothing else, so kind of like camping, but it is cheap, to offset the cost of hotel rooms, for the other 15 days.

Big Sky lodging has increased to the point that I won't pay anymore. When I can't stay with friends I stay an hour away in West Yellowstone, where a nice room at the Holiday Inn costs me about $130. Can you stay in Bishop? Seems that town has to be pretty dead in the winter.

[liv2ski]

Bishop could work (never looked into it). I will just suck it up and deal with the quanza hut as it is better than paying $200 a night elsewhere. I am a member of 3 ski clubs, two of which do 3 or 4 day trips in condos for about $130 a night. So about 15 days with them and 15 slumming it will have to do unless I win the Powerball tonight.

[Pinned]

Mammoth lodging usually costs me around $100/nt, but I mostly go mid-week. Bishop can be $20/nt cheaper, sometimes more, but usually doesn't feel worth it to me when factoring in the time and gas to drive back and forth for multiple days.

[byates1]

^ buy an uninsulated clapped out shitbox van, sleep out at the tubs getting fall down black out drunk, wake up to -15 in that weather sinkhole, fire up some meth and blow hit the fucking hill man! Sack up!

[liv2ski]

Mammoth lodging usually costs me around $100/nt, but I mostly go mid-week. Bishop can be $20/nt cheaper, sometimes more, but usually doesn't feel worth it to me when factoring in the time and gas to drive back and forth for multiple days.

I do mostly midweek and the usual spots are not $100 a night this season. About $150 + taxes at the least. Please pm me if I am missing something here.

[SumJongGuy]

Shit's still crazy around here. Bidding wars before the property is even officially listed anywhere within 20 miles of RTP area. People keep cold calling us wanting to buy our house. This week the highest offer was $350K cash as is. Paid $60K for it on 1997.. Did a $50K addition in 2015. We're not going anywhere. Too much of a hassle to move all the stuff. Gonna get worse when Apple sets up shop here..

[fastfred]

^ buy an uninsulated clapped out shitbox van, sleep out at the tubs getting fall down black out drunk, wake up to -15 in that weather sinkhole, fire up some meth and blow hit the fucking hill man! Sack up!

When are we gonna hang out should be an all time summit