To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[summit]

you said it better and in a lot fewer words

Re what Jono said--I'm having trouble understanding why the original covid strain and early variants have disappeared. The only reason I can think of is that enough people developed immunity that there was effective herd immunity to strains that had relatively low infectivity and transmissability (R0) but not to more infective strains like omicron. But the early strains seemed to have disappeared too soon in the pandemic for that to have happened. Anyone?

It's a combination of high rates of acquired immunity (vaccination, infection, both) that is more effective against infection in the older variants AND being outcompeted by (multifactorial) high R0 newer variants where acquired immunity is not offering as robust of protection against new infection.

[huckbucket]

you said it better and in a lot fewer words

Re what Jono said--I'm having trouble understanding why the original covid strain and early variants have disappeared. The only reason I can think of is that enough people developed immunity that there was effective herd immunity to strains that had relatively low infectivity and transmissability (R0) but not to more infective strains like omicron. But the early strains seemed to have disappeared too soon in the pandemic for that to have happened. Anyone?

The later strains exhibit better transmissibility compared to the parent in an environment where the vaccines do not prevent infection. That's an unsurprising and unbiased observation for evolutionary divergence.

[summit]

Latest Omicron is probably 8-12.

Of course R0 is a mathematical variable in our equations in the current environment because there is protection against infection from acquired immunity, it just is far from 100%.

[jono]

The later strains exhibit better transmissibility compared to the parent in an environment where the vaccines do not prevent infection. That's an unsurprising and unbiased observation for evolutionary divergence.

I think the confusion on this comes from misunderstanding what "out-competing" means. Alpha mostly disappeared relative to other strains but apparently it reproduced enough that omicron eventually came from the remnants. Delta out-competed alpha but didn't stop it.

In late 2021 there was a study published by someone who checked for cross immunity in the lab between cells that had exposure to different variants and exposed them to other variants. As I recall omicron exposure produced good immunity against delta but not the other way around. (I think it was linked in one of these threads.)

I don't recall all the details, but the range of different levels of immunity with different combinations seemed to imply that widespread omicron exposure and vaccination would end delta and a few other strains. Seems like that's how it played out. But that's super different from the whole "good bacteria" concept that seems to be echoed a lot.

[huckbucket]

I think the confusion on this comes from misunderstanding what "out-competing" means. Alpha mostly disappeared relative to other strains but apparently it reproduced enough that omicron eventually came from the remnants. Delta out-competed alpha but didn't stop it.

In late 2021 there was a study published by someone who checked for cross immunity in the lab between cells that had exposure to different variants and exposed them to other variants. As I recall omicron exposure produced good immunity against delta but not the other way around. (I think it was linked in one of these threads.)

I don't recall all the details, but the range of different levels of immunity with different combinations seemed to imply that widespread omicron exposure and vaccination would end delta and a few other strains. Seems like that's how it played out. But that's super different from the whole "good bacteria" concept that seems to be echoed a lot.

Right. It's far too simplistic to think linearly about these evolutionary steps, at least as it concerns this covid virus. But as with all of evolution, fitness is king. Anything inferior from a replication and/or transmission standpoint will lose out. Anything overly fatal won't make it either. There's a reason why there are no entries in the upper right hand of this scatter plot.

[jono]

There's a reason why there are no entries in the upper right hand of this scatter plot.

Yeah. It's just too easy to forget to look at what that reason is and imagine the result is itself a broadly applicable principle. For example, mid-delta I had a friend tell me he hoped the virus would "continue to attenuate" based on that basic assumption. But delta was both more contagious and deadlier, because the things that made it more fit didn't make it less deadly.

I wonder if the most fit virus isn't the one that kills all its infertile hosts after they gain immunity? If the reproduction of naive hosts increases that's good for the virus.

[huckbucket]

Yeah. It's just too easy to forget to look at what that reason is and imagine the result is itself a broadly applicable principle. For example, mid-delta I had a friend tell me he hoped the virus would "continue to attenuate" based on that basic assumption. But delta was both more contagious and deadlier, because the things that made it more fit didn't make it less deadly.

I wonder if the most fit virus isn't the one that kills all its infertile hosts after they gain immunity? If the reproduction of naive hosts increases that's good for the virus.

Sorry man ... not following your question well. Host gains immunity from variant A, but then host can be killed more readily by variant B compared to naive hosts?

[jono]

Sorry man ... not following your question well. Host gains immunity from variant A, but then host can be killed more readily by variant B compared to naive hosts?

Sorry, I meant that in the more indirect vein, like Toxoplasma gondii. Say a virus kills only hosts who weren't making more hosts (maybe they get pulmonary fibrosis years later), that makes room for more hosts. If the younger ones (whose life expectancy goes down while their resources are less diverted to caring for parents/grandparents) have more kids as a result, the host population becomes younger and provides the virus with more hosts.

I'm not suggesting COVID managed that, just that it's a different form of fitness: creating conditions that favor an increased proportion of naive hosts.

[bodywhomper]

Sorry man ... not following your question well. Host gains immunity from variant A, but then host can be killed more readily by variant B compared to naive hosts?

Because variant A compromises immune system of host?

[huckbucket]

Hurts my brain. I guess anything is possible if you can demonstrate that there's an impact to the repository of hosts. In the timeline we're thinking though (weeks to months), there's probably less chance for something like you've outlined to have an effect. I dunno.

[jono]

For sure. Not a tool for comparing variants, just a way for eventually- deadly diseases to survive.

[Core Shot]

Explain SADS

[huckbucket]

Only after you exlain ASCRS. I think there's a real story there worth discussing.

https://fascrs.org/patients/diseases...z/anal-fissure

[Core Shot]

Only after you exlain ASCRS. I think there's a real story there worth discussing.

https://fascrs.org/patients/diseases...z/anal-fissure

Holee fook

That link is nasty.
Wish you had rickrolled me instead.

[jono]

You clicked a link that ends in "anal-fissure?"

Ok, yeah, that checks out.

[Core Shot]

You clicked a link that ends in "anal-fissure?"

Ok, yeah, that checks out.

I’m bi curious
Apparently

[twat]

To click or not to click

[Core Shot]

commotio cordis

All the cool kids are doing it.

Happens every day.
Always has. Always will. Oh. Wait. No. Or yes. I recall daily reports of famous fit athletes dropping dead. Yeah. Happens all the time.

Could be Covid. Could be the vax. Might be both. But it is off limits for debate.

[CarlMega]

JFC.

[Dantheman]

Oooh, a bar chart, I'm officially convinced.

In case anyone is curious where those "statistics" come from: https://goodsciencing.com/covid/athl...er-covid-shot/

Scroll down for the list of "athletes" supposedly dead from post-covid vax cardiac issues, many of which 1) are recreational athletes in their 40s, 50s, and 60s; 2) have no listed cause of death or had causes of death listed that were explicitly not cardiac-related; and 3) are based entirely on early news reports written prior to any official COD determination that also typically say nothing about when or even if they were vaccinated at all.

This post on the site about Global Warming is just oustanding: https://goodsciencing.com/global-war...ce-is-garbage/

Who actually writes the content on that site? They've decided it's best that you not know:

"A few people have been asking who we are, what our credentials are, and what we’re trying to prove.

We are a small team of investigators, news editors, journalists, and truth seekers, now backed up by others, who are discovering pieces of information that we can investigate. It doesn’t really matter who we are. What really matters is that we care carrying on an investigation and we’re presenting the evidence we’ve found, almost all of it documented in mainstream media publications.

We’re doing this anonymously because we’ve seen people viciously attacked and threatened for doing things like this, so we’re not going to open ourselves or any of our contacts to that."


Does it hurt to be this dumb?

[PB]

Unfortunately ........ bliss.

Although willful ignorance is indeed next level bliss.

[SumJongGuy]

Isn't it all death technically CARDIAC death? You're dead when your heart stops beating amirite? Decapitated but died when the heart stopped beating.. cardiac death!

[Core Shot]

Isn't it all death technically CARDIAC death? You're dead when your heart stops beating amirite? Decapitated but died when the heart stopped beating.. cardiac death!

Kinda reminds me of Covid deaths. Motorcycle accident? Covid.

Anyways. I’m old enough to remember Lenn Bias. It was national news when he dropped dead on the court. That doesn’t usually happen. That’s why it was news.

Turns out he was doing coke. Hopefully some hookers were involved the night before. RIP.

Sudden Adult Death Syndrome?

Never heard of it. Until now. Ymmv.

[SumJongGuy]

Kinda reminds me of Covid deaths. Motorcycle accident? Covid.

Anyways. I’m old enough to remember Lenn Bias. It was national news when he dropped dead on the court. That doesn’t usually happen. That’s why it was news.

Turns out he was doing coke. Hopefully some hookers were involved the night before. RIP.

Sudden Adult Death Syndrome?

Never heard of it. Until now. Ymmv.

You're old enough but too stoned to even get the IMPORTANT details right. He didn't die on the court. He died in his dorm room after doing a shit ton of coke..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Len_Bias

[Core Shot]

Sudden cardiac death is the leading cause of death for teenage athletes?

Oh shit. It’s that faux news channel cbs
https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/vi...ng-athletes/#x