Results 16,701 to 16,725 of 18218
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09-28-2022, 09:20 PM #16701
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09-28-2022, 10:04 PM #16702
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09-29-2022, 08:27 AM #16703
TSM falling apart nicely.
Hoping for 60!
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09-29-2022, 11:59 AM #16704
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09-29-2022, 12:09 PM #16705
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09-29-2022, 12:14 PM #16706
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09-29-2022, 12:16 PM #16707Registered User
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- 1,093
Shall we set up a pool for how low the Fed's balance sheet drops before it halts the QT program? I'll go with $5.5T.
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09-29-2022, 12:22 PM #16708Registered User
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- Juneau
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On the ground, I think it mostly means a big buyer of bonds has stopped buying, but the breadth of opinions on the effects of QT is impressive. That may be offset by the fact that the current govt doesn't need to raise as much $$$ and other countries may buy treasuries for the safe haven they provide (not to mention large institutions). The big QT attempt in 2018 didn't go so well, but they supposedly have tinkered with the gears to avoid repeating that problem. Regardless, the past few months (and weeks) in the US treasury markets have been insane. I look forward to the post-mortem review.
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09-29-2022, 12:27 PM #16709
I guess the level isn’t down much, but there’s a clear change in direction.
I think any change in policy occurring too rapidly would ‘cause something major’.
Statement on their plan for anyone who wants to try and parse it:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...y20220504b.htm
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09-29-2022, 12:42 PM #16710
Wow...Much faith parked in suits with degrees with 0 real world experience. Currency movements and understanding is beyond most, even in the CB's and biggest money managers around the world. Best of luck. Some of you are going to be slaughtered.
Just wait until the Govy bond market goes no bid and rates go up in effort to attract buyers. The game is over for Government Bonds and the party is only just starting. Govies have run out of other peoples money and they have no plans to stop spending...Now comes the lies, excuses, and passing of blame.
TV/ Traditional Media will not help you here and many of the whack job Gold Bugs will not either. Welcome to the grind. The European banking system is going to go down in a ball of fire and that is why the FED has had to step into the reverse Repo market. No US bank wants to touch any overseas paper and the only thing holding the Global system together is the US Federal Reserve. They have embarked though on a path that will lead to Emerging Market Brimstone.
NATO is building bases in Romania and preparing for 4-5 years of conflict. WW3 will blow many of your thinking's right out of the water. I do understand you are only able to forecast what you know and believe to be true. It is what you do not know that worries me.
https://www.rferl.org/a/nato-battleg.../32044735.html - Added this for the source of my claimLast edited by NakedShorts; 09-29-2022 at 01:54 PM.
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09-29-2022, 12:44 PM #16711
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09-29-2022, 12:45 PM #16712
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09-29-2022, 01:33 PM #16713
Who are the biggest buyers of Bonds?
-Pension Funds
-Insurance Companies
-Banks
What happens when you lower rates to negative and then in the future you increase rates? What happens to the price of all of those bonds issued at low or negative rates? Balance Sheet Adjustment = Black Hole
It really is not that hard to understand. Although the CBdicks obviously had no long term thinking capabilities or maybe the plan was to blow up the whole thing?
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09-29-2022, 01:37 PM #16714
You use a lot of rhetorical questions
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09-29-2022, 01:38 PM #16715
BOOM!
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09-29-2022, 01:45 PM #16716
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09-29-2022, 03:13 PM #16717
Pension funds and insurance co’s will have lower liabilities with higher rates. That’s the balance sheet adjustment. It’s 7th grade math. Not a black hole.
And they can just buy more. This isn’t the first time rates have gone up. And not the first time the fed raised rates.
Remember the carnage and zombiepocalypse back in the 80s when Volcker was hiking 2% a clip?
Me neither.Decisions Decisions
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09-29-2022, 03:15 PM #16718
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09-29-2022, 03:28 PM #16719
Rest of the world will buy US Govy bonds.
China selling dollars to prop up their commie fiat currency.
GBP is not so great. Time for a Euro trip, as long as the next COVID variant isn't spreading like wildfire and killing hundreds of thousands daily.
Buy big pharma.
Or build a nuke bunker. Or both..."We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
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09-29-2022, 04:47 PM #16720Banned
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- Aug 2009
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- Splat's Garage
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- 4,186
Should I sell?
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09-29-2022, 05:35 PM #16721
I cant believe none of these people have blown out. I’m not a bond trader, but these are massive moves in the one of the biggest most liquid mkts in the world.
A blind person could see it coming, but there’s always some genius who strapped it on and takes everyone down with him.
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09-29-2022, 06:06 PM #16722
Is the stock market going to tank?
Who the pensions? Insurance co’s?
Their liabilities decreased as much (at worst) as their bonds have.Decisions Decisions
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09-29-2022, 10:46 PM #16723
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09-30-2022, 05:09 AM #16724
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09-30-2022, 07:58 AM #16725
No, I’m thinking a big hedge fund, like a long term Capitol explosion.
Some of these “geniuses” literally just strap on a giant spread, in bonds I’d imagine they short the yield curve, and they just keep adding to it as it goes against them, and they never put the brakes on, then one day boom! Force to unwind a trillion dollars in futures at the worst possible time for everyone.
Some of the biggest trades I’ve ever heard of, put on by these “geniuses”, that blow up, would get you fired instantly at any place that has any legitimate risk management in place.
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