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  1. #676
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Eugenio Oregón
    Posts
    8,378
    ^ yup. And this next comment isn't for you river, it's for lucknau and anyone concerned about future problems ...

    The scenario to watch for after we get the bulletproof rain crust we are soon expecting, is less than 10" of cold new snow on top followed by a week of clear skies and super cold temps (like low teens or less overnight) ... then we could into get some nasty lingering stuff in the upper snowpack. It's not very common here, but that's basically what happened in the Sierra Nevada between New Year and last week (in case you heard about the Alpine Meadows accident and all the other close calls reported in the last week). And if that scenario plays out you can be sure that NWAC and COAC will be all over it.
    _______________________________________________
    "Strapping myself to a sitski built with 30lb of metal and fibreglass then trying to water ski in it sounds like a stupid idea to me.

    I'll be there."
    ... Andy Campbell

  2. #677
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    inpdx
    Posts
    20,197
    what loads on top of the end of this r**n event
    that will be a significant layer in the snowpack to remember

  3. #678
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    roaming into the gloaming
    Posts
    608
    Damn. I hadn't heard about that squaw incident.

    It's easy to ignore the possibility of inbounds slides when control work has been done and a run is "open." I feel for the patrollers and victims. That has to be heartbreaking.

  4. #679
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Bend, OR
    Posts
    199
    Good times skiing Cloudchaser with jonesy & TBS today, seems we hit timing just right before the surface turned to glop, too bad we couldn’t see what we were doing...

  5. #680
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    50 miles E of Paradise
    Posts
    15,565
    ^^^It was a good day to test waterproof/breathable fabrics. Reminiscent of Timberline conditions...
    I can report that my Antero II jacket, Baker bibs and FTP gloves kept me dry as a nun's vagina (tm Joe Strummer)

  6. #681
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    PNWET
    Posts
    4,747
    grazie solo gente del posto lower sunlot. Personal chair lift, RV parking and immaculate groomers. Ski in ski outClick image for larger version. 

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    https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=3982&dateline=1279375  363

  7. #682
    Join Date
    Jun 2018
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    1,218
    Yeah, you’re right. I guess I’m thinking that if a deluge is on the way, the water loading on the recent massive snow dump plus possibility of temperatures staying mild mean there’s a significant near term massive wet slide hazard.

    I’m kind of stuck in a loop assuming the mean temperature will remain consistently higher this year, given the shite weather pattern so far. I’ll gladly be wrong about that, but until the cold sets in, I will remain spooked.

  8. #683
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    50 miles E of Paradise
    Posts
    15,565
    Hmmm, Cloudcatcher closed today due to "unsafe snow conditions". As is the wet side of the hill...

  9. #684
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    PNWET
    Posts
    4,747
    Snow bombs from trees, Rime, creeks on runs.
    https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=3982&dateline=1279375  363

  10. #685
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Tahoe-ish
    Posts
    3,141
    Well, we stopped at Crater anyway, since staying at one of the Sno Parks outside of the park made sense. The snow was pretty terrible but we got a little walk on skis in and almost caught a glimpse of the lake. Next stop will likely be Baker after visiting some friends in Tacoma, so here's hoping it gets cold again.

    Sent from my LG-US998 using TGR Forums mobile app
    ride bikes, climb, ski, travel, cook, work to fund former, repeat.

  11. #686
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    PNWET
    Posts
    4,747
    Cascade pass roads are wet & bare. Easy roll over to 5 & into the evergreen state.
    https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=3982&dateline=1279375  363

  12. #687
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    HR
    Posts
    429
    Quote Originally Posted by mattig View Post
    forecasts show the biggest dose of the R-word in any January as long as I can remember.
    I think you might have a short memory.

    Mt. Hood is completely out of the question. Swim goggles and water wings for the next week and a half. Bachy is your best and only bet. Earlier and higher the better.
    What are you looking at? Sun night, Monday, Tuesday look ok on Hood. Late in the week doesn't currently look like we'll need an Ark either.

  13. #688
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    1,887
    Quote Originally Posted by Grizz View Post
    I think you might have a short memory.

    short something, but it ain't a memory

    Quote Originally Posted by Grizz View Post

    What are you looking at? Sun night, Monday, Tuesday look ok on Hood. Late in the week doesn't currently look like we'll need an Ark either.
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    One thing I look at that most others don't is the temps at various altitudes. When there's pervasive sub-freezing air at 6400-ish feet (and especially when that remains true at lower points in the air column), and when that's true for hundreds of miles in any direction from the mountain, we tend to get good snow unless there's a truly uncommon inversion. I'm sure there are other indicators to watch that are more scientific, but this has worked for me over time, and I don't think I've made a strong weather call in here without being mostly right. I don't like to raise red flags if they're just whiny bullshit that doesn't pan out. Anyway, temps at altitudes... Caveat: the worst of the lot is about a week from now, which has less forecast reliability, but if it holds fairly steady, we're looking at stupid high winds, moderate rain and 40 degree temps. That's ark-level water on the ground between precip and meltage. And yes, Sunday night looks sorta OK on paper. It could even turn out that way. It could also be sleety, snainy bullshit. Too close to call.

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  14. #689
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Drifting through the PNW
    Posts
    855
    ^ what site did you pull those from?

  15. #690
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    HR
    Posts
    429
    Quote Originally Posted by mattig View Post
    I don't like to raise red flags if they're just whiny bullshit that doesn't pan out....Too close to call.
    You look like a windy.com master. So far it seems like normal January weather on Hood to me.

    I think more than three days out isn't reliable. NWAC numbers don't look bad through Monday.

    Water wings, goggles and largest dose of the r word in memory seems like hyperbole. But, then again who knows. We have a week left in January and like you're saying it might turn into something special.

  16. #691
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    1,887
    Quote Originally Posted by Grizz View Post
    You look like a windy.com master. So far it seems like normal January weather on Hood to me.

    I think more than three days out isn't reliable. NWAC numbers don't look bad through Monday.

    Water wings, goggles and largest dose of the r word in memory seems like hyperbole. But, then again who knows. We have a week left in January and like you're saying it might turn into something special.
    Granted, a bit of hyperbole. There are at least a few days coming up here that aren't going to avoid sucking. It happens. I'm gonna put on my poncho and go tear it up.

    January overall will be great even if this week sucks as hard as possible. Simply put, if the forecast holds, this last week of the month is bad in terms r*** plus wind plus temps. My birthday week, so I have perfect recall of all late Jan weather patterns going back to 1980.

    @patatero, windy.com

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

  17. #692
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    8,242
    So what's the prognosis for Mt Hood on Sunday? Will be out that way this weekend. I will bring the skis and gear regardless, but do I also need to pack a garbage bag for the skiing, or will my Gore-Tex suffice?
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  18. #693
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Posts
    304
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    So what's the prognosis for Mt Hood on Sunday? Will be out that way this weekend. I will bring the skis and gear regardless, but do I also need to pack a garbage bag for the skiing, or will my Gore-Tex suffice?
    It is suppose to rain Sat night and snow sunday. The freezing level will be right at the base of the resort so if it is snow it will be heavy wet snow. Although if the forecasted temp is off a little bit in either direction, it could make it a pretty decent or pretty wet day.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  19. #694
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    1,887
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    So what's the prognosis for Mt Hood on Sunday? Will be out that way this weekend. I will bring the skis and gear regardless, but do I also need to pack a garbage bag for the skiing, or will my Gore-Tex suffice?

    Fuck me, I thought I replied to this, but it ain't here. Sorry.

    Anyway, no garbage bag needed for sunday. Pineapple delivery mostly an overnight thing on Saturday and then again middle of next week.

    Next weekend starting to look better, and especially next Sunday when forecast currently calls for a return of the cold air we want.

  20. #695
    Join Date
    Oct 2016
    Posts
    924
    what are your thoughts about tomorrow? Something I am seeing is showing that it might not be too extremely wet mid-day. I will bring up an extra parka to change out but I'm not skiing in a bag. As long as I can see I am good until my pants get too uncomfortable. potentially more wind Sunday no?

    I have a friend that wants to pick Saturday or Sunday and I'm not sure what to tell him

    Quote Originally Posted by mattig View Post
    Fuck me, I thought I replied to this, but it ain't here. Sorry.

    Anyway, no garbage bag needed for sunday. Pineapple delivery mostly an overnight thing on Saturday and then again middle of next week.

    Next weekend starting to look better, and especially next Sunday when forecast currently calls for a return of the cold air we want.

  21. #696
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    8,242
    Quote Originally Posted by PNW-skier78 View Post
    It is suppose to rain Sat night and snow sunday. The freezing level will be right at the base of the resort so if it is snow it will be heavy wet snow. Although if the forecasted temp is off a little bit in either direction, it could make it a pretty decent or pretty wet day.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Thanks. Will pack an extra pair of gloves and goggles just because you can never have too many pairs of gloves or goggles...
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  22. #697
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    1,887
    Quote Originally Posted by OregonDead View Post
    what are your thoughts about tomorrow? Something I am seeing is showing that it might not be too extremely wet mid-day. I will bring up an extra parka to change out but I'm not skiing in a bag. As long as I can see I am good until my pants get too uncomfortable. potentially more wind Sunday no?

    I have a friend that wants to pick Saturday or Sunday and I'm not sure what to tell him
    Wetness supposed to take a break from around 9 to around 8pm. But those time frames are routinely off by a few hours in either direction.

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

  23. #698
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    PNWET
    Posts
    4,747
    All this talk of wetness. PSA: if you see a women in a tree well with her skis off and her pants down be sure and stop and check on her status. Now back to your wetness discussion.
    https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=3982&dateline=1279375  363

  24. #699
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    HR
    Posts
    429
    Today was fun. No rain, some sun breaks, wind was manageable, light crowds, about 2-3 inches of fresh heavy snow.

  25. #700
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    inpdx
    Posts
    20,197
    Boy has a day off Mon & the weather seems like it may be favorable...

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