Is the stock market going to tank?

[rod9301]

And immoral as fuck. Nice work comrade.

Why is this immoral?

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[garyfromterrace]

Why is this immoral?

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Maybe supporting an evil regime that's unnecessarily killed +100,000 people? Are you daft? Anyway I've no idea how you've dodged my ignore button for so long. Enjoy yelling at clouds.

[byates1]

Maybe supporting an evil regime that's unnecessarily killed +100,000 people? Are you daft? Anyway I've no idea how you've dodged my ignore button for so long. Enjoy yelling at clouds.

Are you talking about the USA? Fuck man we've killed way more innocent people than that. Wall st has never done a thing wrong ever. Merica, make money, kill everyone.

[CarlMega]

^Now do Russia and the Soviets. What a joke.

[sirbumpsalot]

^Now do Russia and the Soviets. What a joke.

The political tools and useful idiots eventually cunt up every thread...

[garyfromterrace]

Are you talking about the USA? Fuck man we've killed way more innocent people than that. Wall st has never done a thing wrong ever. Merica, make money, kill everyone.

But what about....
fuck off.

[rod9301]

Maybe supporting an evil regime that's unnecessarily killed +100,000 people? Are you daft? Anyway I've no idea how you've dodged my ignore button for so long. Enjoy yelling at clouds.

How am i supporting Russia?
The shares were already issued, so the Russian company doesn't get any of my money.
I buy the shares from another investor.

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[rod9301]

But what about....
fuck off.

He's right though

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[Brock Landers]

^^You in the right thread??

[MultiVerse]

The post Cold War era of the last three decades is over. That means in all likelihood the world probably won’t experience widespread political peace between major powers. This could be a tectonic shift to a new landscape that will impact how people invest for decades. If folks are invested in China, for example, they could quickly end up rug pulled the way Rod was with Russia.

[jono]

The irony of having to point out geopolitical risks--afterwards, no less--to people who read zerohedge is, to be technically precise, amazeballs.

[Cono Este]

The post Cold War era of the last three decades is over. That means in all likelihood the world probably won’t experience widespread political peace between major powers. This could be a tectonic shift to a new landscape that will impact how people invest for decades. If folks are invested in China, for example, they could quickly end up rug pulled the way Rod was with Russia.

I agree 100%. Lots of tail risk.

[rod9301]

The risk with China is that us will sanction the adrs. I should all my Chinese oil companies, actually i just had two.

Great dividends, but i didn't want to go thru the same issues i had with the Russian adrs.



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[rod9301]

However, thru interactive brokers you can buy honk kong stocks, so you bypass somewhat the adr risk.
And please, don't make this into a political issue.

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[schuss]

I mean, the big risk with China is that CCP just decides to take the company and tell foreign owners to fuck off. Or just change the leadership. Or the rules of the marketplace.
Regardless of politics it's risky.

[Cono Este]

Forget about politics or wars, the place is corrupt. Like different people claiming the same assets corrupt. fiduciary is the family running the business, not shareholders.

[dschane]

As a non-professional seeking market news/information (not investing advice), I'll echo that Bloomberg is great. Very expensive, but I also like the Financial Times.

What's the over/under on the Fed moving its target inflation rate to 3-4% by the end of 2023? Seems like by the end of 2024 is more than 50-50?

[summit]

3-4% as a target doesn't seem like an acceptable rate with current calculation methodologies that many feel have undercounted inflation effects for many years

It would be better to say "we can't meet the target through acceptable means" than to say "we are fine with 3-4%"

But I'm not a macro guru

[4matic]

The Fed will just say the long term trajectory of inflation is well within our target of 2%. If it ever does reach 2%, which it will imo, they will probably remove inflation as a target and be “data dependent”.

[Brock Landers]

The Fed will just say the long term trajectory of inflation is well within our target of 2%. If it ever does reach 2%, which it will imo, they will probably remove inflation as a target and be “data dependent”.

They don’t even have a target anymore. It’s now a range. Or target range. Whatever.

Long term structural factors are still disinflationary

Chances they move inflation target to 3-4%: 0/10

[rod9301]

I think the mantra "timing the market doesn't work"comes from investment banks and advisors who don't make money unless you're invested.

However, deciding to hedge or get out when valuations are high is not timing.

Quote from one of the greatest investors:

"Decades ago, the famed value investor Benjamin Graham wrote, “The habit of relating what is paid to what is being offered is an invaluable trait in investment. We are convinced that the average investor cannot deal successfully with price movements by endeavoring to forecast them. Our recommended policy has, however, made provision for changes in the proportion of common stocks to bonds in the portfolio, if the investor chooses to do so, according as the level of stock prices appears less or more attractive by value standards. That sounds like timing; but when you consider it you will see that it is not really timing at all, but rather the purchase and sale of securities by the method of valuation.”

Btw for at least 15 yes, stocks returned less then t bills starting in 1998, even with two years of great returns till 2000.

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[skaredshtles]

I think the mantra "timing the market doesn't work"comes from investment banks and advisors who don't make money unless you're invested.

...

[Name Redacted]

...

The stock market is a zero sum game. For every winner, there's a loser. So we need people to think they can time the market and lose (continually) in order for the rest of us to not time the market and win.

[J. Barron DeJong]

The stock market is a zero sum game. For every winner, there's a loser. So we need people to think they can time the market and lose (continually) in order for the rest of us to not time the market and win.

This sure looks like the sum is increasing over time:


Trying to beat the market returns is zero sum, if you want to call it that, but anyone can just buy and hold the broad market and expect to see positive returns.

[skaredshtles]

There are some true financial WIZARDS in this thread.