To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[LongShortLong]

It’s unreal how stupid that guy is.

Bad at math too. I see his point though. Even having the wrong risk estimate likely doesn't change his opinion that it's an acceptable risk. If covid killed 1% evenly across all demographics, there'd still be plenty of personal risk takers.

There was a comic around somewhere... Boomer doesn't want to do anything for climate change. Boomer's kid doesn't want to do anything for covid. Can't see any concern past my own nose so f@ck you, eh?

The disablement number deserves quantification. Dr. Griffin on TWiV's clinical update said 10% unable to return to work again this week, but mentioned in passing without discussing 10% of what. The implication seemed to be 10% of those PCR positive. If that's the case, it deserves far more attention than it gets. Hard to believe that could be slipping past public health and politicians, which leaves me uncertain it's correct. Maybe I'll send him a request to clarify.

[jono]

16% neurological impacts has come up enough to explain some math difficulties and make 10% unable to work seem more believable.

[twat]

Most of the current modeling is suggesting this current Delta may be the last wave, but with regional bobbles thru March 2022. Then we get to less than 9k infections/day and below ~100/deaths a day nation wide.

Worldwide my take is it will be 2024 before its under control enough to be a minor health threat more akin to influenza.

hey mofro

we have a vaxrate of 60% here in austria and now daliy doses given are minimal atm. 1/5 daily doses as what was given in the big vaxx time. (main vaxx roll out june / july / august)

this is some data from austria... we are a tiny country in the middle of europe and generally following germany.


will this be the last wave for us too? or as we had lesser casses because of lockdowns. the first bump was the eu-shutdown not a wave
first wave could be like november to may
second wave starting now.... with 60% vaxxed

so they need to increase the pressure on the unvaxxed to flatten the second wave....????

here the us data to compare

[Skidog]

There's been a lot of research on the humoral response focusing on the B cell along with the CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses and how it all fits together with SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies (Abs) (IgG, IgM, IgA) recognizing the receptor-binding domain. As you can imagine it gets pretty complicated and quickly falls into MoFo's domain.

The main thing is there's a lot more to it than antibody levels and viral loads. Which means you'd have to biopsy lymph nodes to fully determine the B & T response. There are studies where they've done that and so far this is what it looks like ranked / clustered in terms of inducing robust memory B & T cell secondary responses:

• 1 dose + prior COVID provides the most robust immunity
• Naive 2 doses with a long 16 week interval between is almost as good

• Prior Severe Covid
• Naive 2 doses given over a short interval ← could be an argument for +1 boost

• Prior Mild Covid

So that seems to go along with my point. If you had covid and survived you are nearly it just as protected as a vaxxed person. Why do those prior infected require a vax or weekly testing at 100+ companies, but vaxxed don't? Vaxxed just gets a total pass even though they can carry and spread covid.

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[Benny Profane]

X

[Salvelinusconfluentus]

X

Are accounting for moving patients to hospitals with more beds available? North Idaho is exporting its cases to Washington where we have better vaccination rates. I bet thats happening in other places, too.

[Salvelinusconfluentus]

The main thing is there's a lot more to it than antibody levels and viral loads. Which means you'd have to biopsy lymph nodes to fully determine the B & T response.

Perfect! It makes perfect sense! People who don't want to vax can get their lymph nodes biopsied!

I'm sure that's safer and way less invasive than one of the vaccine choices available. Probably cheaper and less likely of getting a Bill Gates microchip, too!

Brilliant!

[SumJongGuy]

Benny would you mind sharing the source of that graphic? Thanks it's just the view I've been looking for.

[Benny Profane]

WAPO

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...alization-map/

[old_newguy]

Why does Skidog keep bringing up the same talking points every single day? Why can''t he refer back to the previous answers to his questions?

I can only assume this is a rhetorical question.

Skidog is a self admitted troll.

[DougW]

hey mofro
]

might be easier to compare with this graph

[KQ]

X

So 63% is considered "low vaccination rate?" That's what we have here in W2 - that chart has us in the med-dark purple.

[SumJongGuy]

Graphic looks suspiciously like the charts of US counties Trump vs Biden.

[altasnob]

WA DOH is showing Walla Walla County 50% fully vaccinated (of the entire population), Pierce 48.3%, and King 67.6% (I believe King is one of the highest in the nation, particularly for large counties).

Pierce voted 54-43 for Biden, and is same color as Walla Walla on map above, so not all motivated by politics.

[altasnob]

Atlantic article on why US vaccination rate has fallen to #36 on earth, provides three major reasons:

No group is more likely to reject the vaccines than young Americans without insurance. Members of this group are disproportionately young and low-income and lack easy access to a doctor if something goes wrong. Many of them don’t know that the vaccine is free. Meanwhile, the fear of side effects is one of the most common reasons people give for avoiding the vaccines. This fear, compounded by a feeling of estrangement from the health system, is keeping many Americans from getting vaccinated.

Americans aren’t radically different from Europeans on how much we trust public authorities or how readily we accept public-health restrictions to fight the pandemic. What makes the U.S. exceptional is our unusually low support for vaccines in general. The U.S. had significant levels of vaccine hesitancy before the pandemic.

And of course, the politicization of vaccines in America.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...nation/620201/

[Salvelinusconfluentus]

WA DOH is showing Walla Walla County 50% fully vaccinated (of the entire population), Pierce 48.3%, and King 67.6% (I believe King is one of the highest in the nation, particularly for large counties).

Pierce voted 54-43 for Biden, and is same color as Walla Walla, so not all motivated by politics.

What did king county vote? I bet higher for Biden than pierce...

[altasnob]

75-22. But that's not surprising. King County is one of the most liberal, affluent, large counties in America.

[ill-advised strategy]

raging selfishness that defines his character.

Which is odd, because normally hockey players understand teamwork.

[Salvelinusconfluentus]

75-22. But that's not surprising. King County is one of the most liberal, affluent, large counties in America.

It also has a super high vaccination rate.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Atlantic article on why US vaccination rate has fallen to #36 on earth, provides three major reasons:

No group is more likely to reject the vaccines than young Americans without insurance. Members of this group are disproportionately young and low-income and lack easy access to a doctor if something goes wrong. Many of them don’t know that the vaccine is free. Meanwhile, the fear of side effects is one of the most common reasons people give for avoiding the vaccines. This fear, compounded by a feeling of estrangement from the health system, is keeping many Americans from getting vaccinated.

Americans aren’t radically different from Europeans on how much we trust public authorities or how readily we accept public-health restrictions to fight the pandemic. What makes the U.S. exceptional is our unusually low support for vaccines in general. The U.S. had significant levels of vaccine hesitancy before the pandemic.

And of course, the politicization of vaccines in America.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...nation/620201/

It’s willful ignorance among the young, the only contact they have is “friends” on their favorite social media platform. It’s a smartphone bubble. They’re incurious about the world at large. I sat down with some younger coworkers last year and talked about Covid. It was at a time with almost 3k deaths a day and I told them that. They all looked at me in horror and disbelief like it was some great surprise. They need help finding real objective information from government sources. It’s really kind of sad, they’re not stupid just isolated from reality.


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[Harry]

94 y/o Mom reports sore arm after Phizer Booster. No complaining from her. She is tough.

Who cares about fighting chimps and gorillas, I bet my Mom would kick skidog’s ass in a cage match.


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[SumJongGuy]

WA DOH is showing Walla Walla County 50% fully vaccinated (of the entire population), Pierce 48.3%, and King 67.6% (I believe King is one of the highest in the nation, particularly for large counties).

Pierce voted 54-43 for Biden, and is same color as Walla Walla on map above, so not all motivated by politics.

Does that include children though? Kids under 18 don't vote and under 12 are 100% unvaccinated. I see a high correlation between slammed hospitals and places Trump won.. Not 100% true but certainly solidly there.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

94 y/o Mom reports sore arm after Phizer Booster. No complaining from her. She is tough.

Who cares about fighting chimps and gorillas, I bet my Mom would kick skidog’s ass in a cage match.


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Yes, but he’s an excellent driver. Four minutes to Wapner


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[skiJ]

X

I believe care should be taken with the meaning of this map -

the y-axis (greens) document vaccination rate ;
the x-axis (purple) documents hospitalizations per 100 hospital beds, And ranges only to 16 (or more) /100 hospital beds ;
( to me, a far better measure on the x-axis would be percent of ICU beds occupied by covid patients )


urban areas ,,, I do not know the statistics of health care administration, but

it seems to me this map shows the demand on medical care for the timeframe documented, more than any measure of covid infection rate.


respectfully. skiJ

postscript edit -

it seems to me, urban areas are better able to provide care due to increased hospital capacity
( north Idaho has grown dramatically recently; I don't know that medical care capacity has kept pace with population growth
( intuitively, given the proximity to Spokane, I do not expect so. ) )


Please. get vaccinated.

[mtuhockey33]

Which is odd, because normally hockey players understand teamwork.

This isn’t about teamwork lol you guys have literally no argument against previously infected people being a large risk to anyone. Unless their antibodies have waned. Which is literally the same thing as someone who was previously vaccinated. Your only argument is to “get the shot because it’ll make you superhuman!” Which is a joke. I’m not required to get the shingles vaccine until I’m 50(honestly not sure since I have ~20 years to worry about that) why? Because there’s not a significant risk. I’d argue the same with previous infection and under the age of 40. Why is that such a problem for you guys? Because “muh rights, you need to get vaxx’d??”

sounds awfully hypocritical