Is the stock market going to tank?

[406]

Should have sold my T yesterday

[BobMc]

I bought one share of T in Aug of 2020, I sometimes do that to keep a stock on my newsfeed and in my mind. In the two and a half years other than a few cents on the WBD spin off that shit has gone nowhere.

Neither of my JEPI nor DIVO puts sold, neither had prices that budged all day. My F put I’d priced conservatively sold within a minute of opener. It sold for .84 as F dropped like a stone at the open, a half hour later I bought it back for .53. I had planned on getting the shares but $29.68 in a half hour was too much to pass up.

Took back my third load of metal scrap for the week, unloaded 2000 pounds myself this morning. Each guy in my shop (including myself) got $172. They get walking around money their wives don’t know about, and mine went into my stock account. Put in my usual $200 monthly as well. Took the $ and bought 6 shares of JEPI.

I still have a fair amount of cash in my account but I always like deploying the sweat labor cash quickly.

[Kevo]

Inflation print this week was highest month over month in seven months. December was revised up before the Jan print.

The stock market continues to rally, despite overwhelming evidence that inflation hasn't rolled over and that rates need to continue to go up to curb inflation's.

I think the stock market is calling Powell's bluff- I think that people are starting to realize that the Fed isn't going to fix inflation with negative real rates, so you might as well own assets if inflation is going to continue unabaited.

I bet JPow goes 25 basis points on the next move, makes some remark about taking a "data driven approach going forward" without giving guidance on future rate hikes and the stock market goes to all time highs.

[4matic]

Nat gas near multi decade low prices. Down another 10% today

[summit]

bad time to have futures, good time to have transport?

[Kevo]

I've started a CD ladder at Ally.

I contemplated NFCU which has slightly higher rates, but the 60 day interest penalty on 18 Month CDs at Ally is pretty generous and I think there is a decent chance that CD interest rates go up, which means I'll want to break the existing CDs.

5% APY. Woot.

[yeahman]

Still getting 4% for my high yield savings account. The interest is covering almost 20% of my daughter's college tuition cost. And I like getting paid every month.

[dschane]

Schwab's Money Mkt Funds are also now above 4%.

[jackstraw]

Robo Wealthfront savings account 4.05

[sirbumpsalot]

Robo Wealthfront savings account 4.05

Today's treasury auctions yielded 5.11% on the 26 week and 5.046% 52 week. state tax free.

[SB]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lgX_JpkhsNc

[LeeLau]

Nuts. INTC cut its dividend. Guess I'm a bagholder

[summit]

Nuts. INTC cut its dividend. Guess I'm a bagholder

Yah me too

[4matic]

Nuts. INTC cut its dividend. Guess I'm a bagholder

Stock is up so could be the low. Deep value attracts new money?

[sirbumpsalot]

Nuts. INTC cut its dividend. Guess I'm a bagholder

Gonna be hard to turn that ship around. The management and headcount is so big and culture is so ingrained its nearly impossible to change.

[LeeLau]

Gonna be hard to turn that ship around. The management and headcount is so big and culture is so ingrained its nearly impossible to change.

And semis are long sales, product, development cycles. Just gonna grit teeth, sell calls and bear it

[sirbumpsalot]

And semis are long sales, product, development cycles. Just gonna grit teeth, sell calls and bear it

They've been trying to dig out of the legacy CPU-Foundry core focus for nearly 10 yrs now with nothing to show for it. Too big, too slow - they've become the GE/IBM of semi's...best bet is to catch up to TSMC/GF in process technology and pump the Fabs....but new blood needed for even that.

[JimmyCarter]

Stupid question for Lee I assume, but all answers are welcome.

Leveraged ETFs (BOIL specifically)

I understand the problem with “buy and hold” for securities like this, but then I noticed they have long-dated options/LEAPs as well. Given the sort of decay in the ETF itself, is there any reason why a call option should even exist for these? My gut tells me it would be even worse than buying and holding shares (basically all of the problems of holding the ETF amplified)but not sure if I’m missing something in the mechanics.

[LeeLau]

Stupid question for Lee I assume, but all answers are welcome.

Leveraged ETFs (BOIL specifically)

I understand the problem with “buy and hold” for securities like this, but then I noticed they have long-dated options/LEAPs as well. Given the sort of decay in the ETF itself, is there any reason why a call option should even exist for these? My gut tells me it would be even worse than buying and holding shares (basically all of the problems of holding the ETF amplified)but not sure if I’m missing something in the mechanics.

You hit the nail on the head. Their LEAPS are usually low volume, thinly traded and structured in a way to mimic long time value changes. That works in a "normal" market but tends to break down in a low-volume "stranded" market. To simplify; they work till they don't

[summit]

Stock is up so could be the low. Deep value attracts new money?

It's down over 1.2%. I'll buy at $24.25

[sirbumpsalot]

It's down over 1.2%. I'll buy at $24.25

I am sure the street will be disappointed with Q1 numbers regardless and send it below $20 in April.

[JimmyCarter]

You hit the nail on the head. Their LEAPS are usually low volume, thinly traded and structured in a way to mimic long time value changes. That works in a "normal" market but tends to break down in a low-volume "stranded" market. To simplify; they work till they don't

Thanks - saw some of the pricing on them and figured that was the case but was holding out hope.

[4matic]

WTI chart looking more and more like $50.

[summit]

I am sure the street will be disappointed with Q1 numbers regardless and send it below $20 in April.

THat would be... painfull

[uglymoney]

Schwab's Money Mkt Funds are also now above 4%.

Vanguard money market VFMXX paying 4.51 trailing 7 day

https://investor.vanguard.com/invest.../profile/vmfxx

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