Real Estate Crash thread

[Foggy_Goggles]

Good talk, good talk...I'm not sure what is more challenging in the relm of debating and negotiating the future of the Colorado mountain communities, straight making shit up or the "i didn't know" crowd using lack of knowledge to support their point.

Around here it seems like there are three main factions all whom think there agenda is so noble that it should be forwarded at any cost. 1. The retired, WFH or otherwise financially secure crowd that feel like they need nothing from the local economy who resist all change. 2. The growth and tourism is the engine of the economy and needs to be full steam ahead damn the torpedos style and 3. Affordable housing is a public good and the utopian future is council houses or projects with a different name.

"The developers" just figure out a way to navigate the war, the full time working residents really can't get a word in edgewise and the chaos continues.

[Conundrum]

Our local towns shooting down and preventing any and all development for decades created the housing shortage.

Even more annoying, was that the town even did a study a few years ago that showed that there was excessive parking in town, they used this study to justify allowing developers to build two large condo buildings in a public parking lot across the street from the condo building where our condo is.

Boy, your town leaders can't do anything right can they?

[Name Redacted]

Boy, your town leaders can't do anything right can they?

We don't have sprawl like some towns.

The first comment was referring to the county as a whole ("towns"), the second was referring to a single small town ("town")within that county. Issues vary between municipalities. Imagine that.

[byates1]

Sure this has been pointed out before,but..

Given the choice between shitty cig smoking wasteoid tenants and couples coming in to ski each week, leaving the place clean w a great review, it's a no brainer for a property owner.

I had a cabin I rented seasonally on Airbnb, and also long term. Easier and way more profitable to Airbnb.

I realize there are good tenants out there, but also a lot of junk ass ppl .

[goldenboy]

Boy, your town leaders can't do anything right can they?

They sure can't in my town. So many projects shot down by the NIMBYs and town council.

Meanwhile down in Gunnison the town helped build a bunch of townhomes for affordable housing. There was supposed to be a lottery for people who wanted to buy them but instead only 3 people were approved so they just got to pick whatever they wanted. That continues to be my experience with a lot of locals- they say they want affordable housing but it turns out they only want it if it's a 2500sf house on an acre for $100K. And even then they'd probably complain.

[fastfred]

They sure can't in my town. So many projects shot down by the NIMBYs and town council.

Meanwhile down in Gunnison the town helped build a bunch of townhomes for affordable housing. There was supposed to be a lottery for people who wanted to buy them but instead only 3 people were approved so they just got to pick whatever they wanted. That continues to be my experience with a lot of locals- they say they want affordable housing but it turns out they only want it if it's a 2500sf house on an acre for $100K. And even then they'd probably complain.

This is exactly what they want.................. duh
I was happy to live in a tent and a cabin whatever I could find a buddy who owns a great business in town lived in a camper on a piece of property that was non conforming spent three years getting the zoning changed living in a shitty little camper and building his house it was fun for the first month the point is everyone sucked it up hard to make it work and then we got lucky cause it paid off

today all these kids show up expecting ski in ski out walk to the bar 800 dollar a month rent for a whole house when it isn't there they get pissed

summit county has a great affordable housing program but you can't just show up and say rent to me you have to jump through hoops fill out reams of paper work and get in line do these people do any of that no they just complain

buddy went to a county commissioners meeting besides a bunch of clueless squawking realtors he was the only other person there he took a few minutes to ream them about how out of touch they are and how he is the only working person who carve time out of his life of working to keep up and schlepping kids around to come here and tell them they are idiots it was pretty funny

[Toadman]

The weird thing right now is that like all other economic data, good news is bad news and bad news is good news. If holiday spending is down, the Fed will take that as a sign that the economy is slowing down like they want it to. Even though it could also mean layoffs and struggling businesses.

--Probably a better discussion for the Fed thread though.

This could go into the stock market thread but no one is buying much of anything these days, except maybe airline tickets.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ameri...141013620.html

In recent days your columnist took a similar boat trip. Rather than the pre-Christmas bustle, he witnessed another eerie paralysis. Except this time the cause was not surfeit but deficit. Only four container ships were docked at the Port of Los Angeles. Last year there would have been more than three times as many. There was hardly a longshoreman in sight, or crewmen on the ships. The cranes stood silently, like Ghosts of Christmas Past. The only vessel anchored offshore was an antiquated brigantine.

The languor reflected a staggering drop in cargo volumes to the two southern Californian ports, which normally welcome 37% of imports to America. On December 14th the Port of Los Angeles said import volumes fell by 24% year on year in November. The Port of Long Beach has suffered similar shortfalls recently. From a business perspective, the slump raises interesting questions about the future of inflation,

[lowsparkco]

This could go into the stock market thread but no one is buying much of anything these days, except maybe airline tickets.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ameri...141013620.html

Natural causes + Covid = big die off of boomers. They are the ultra consumers. Having been raised by Depression survivors and many denying the impact on the planet, they seemed to prefer throwing things away.

Maybe we’re rolling it back? Folks figuring out that cheap consumer goods don’t actually make them happy?

Back on target too… I know that when I move I recycle/throw away a lot of stuff… shower curtain backers, cheap rugs, stuff I bought that didn’t work out and got stored somewhere.

So, less real estate transactions = less consumption? Of course record inflation is the 800 lb gorilla, but brainstorming other factors.

[Core Shot]

https://www.businessinsider.com/idah...he-quit-2022-7

Air Bnb dude in Idaho goes LTR

[Toadman]

Natural causes + Covid = big die off of boomers. They are the ultra consumers. Having been raised by Depression survivors and many denying the impact on the planet, they seemed to prefer throwing things away.

Maybe we’re rolling it back? Folks figuring out that cheap consumer goods don’t actually make them happy?

Back on target too… I know that when I move I recycle/throw away a lot of stuff… shower curtain backers, cheap rugs, stuff I bought that didn’t work out and got stored somewhere.

So, less real estate transactions = less consumption? Of course record inflation is the 800 lb gorilla, but brainstorming other factors.

People bought a lot of things during COVID lockdown. They got some coin from the gov't too. With the inflation folks started to reassess the need for stuff that didn't include food, gas, rent, and utilities. Back to need vs want for a while.

Lot not too far from my place went for $465k, 1/3 acre. So, some people still have cash.

[rideit]

It’s a trend?

https://www.businessinsider.com/coup...okings-2022-12

[yeahman]

^^I predict they have a bit of a reality check coming their way.

[schuss]

It’s a trend?

https://www.businessinsider.com/coup...okings-2022-12

Yep, nothing I look for in a rental like owners spying on me through the wifi.

[Name Redacted]

Yep, nothing I look for in a rental like owners spying on me through the wifi.

Pretty sure they just require an email address to login to the wifi. I don't think it goes further than that but you probably shouldn't expect privacy through any wifi connection other than your own.

[Core Shot]

It’s a trend?

https://www.businessinsider.com/coup...okings-2022-12

Jfc. $1.3 income on 22 properties.

And they don’t want to pay the air bnb 3%?

[Name Redacted]

Jfc. $1.3 income on 22 properties.

And they don’t want to pay the air bnb 3%?

Read the article. They don’t want to be beholden to Airbnbs rules which can change any time and screw up your business. It is a real threat when you are that invested in one platform. Airbnb doesn’t always side with the landlord either. Shitty tenants can screw thing up and you might only make $1.2m next year.

[AdironRider]

Jfc. $1.3 income on 22 properties.

And they don’t want to pay the air bnb 3%?

They started buying the properties in 2019, so I'm guessing they are leveraged to the hilt.

Now that the real estate appreciation BRRRR train has stalled they probably need to figure out how to milk blood out of the stone and here we are.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

We have a couple days until everyone is here for their ski vacations, but based on last weekend the skier numbers seem way down. Great conditions and pretty much ski on for almost everything. I'll be curious to see how my STR owning clients do this winter, but I am guessing their numbers will be down significantly.

[rideit]

The really high end stuff here is full occupancy, but everywhere else has availability and discounts. You can feel the lack of people while out and about. But things usually start hopping on the 26th.

[skaredshtles]

We have a couple days until everyone is here for their ski vacations, but based on last weekend the skier numbers seem way down. Great conditions and pretty much ski on for almost everything. I'll be curious to see how my STR owning clients do this winter, but I am guessing their numbers will be down significantly.

Just doing a quick search of Big Sky and Jackson the week after Xmas - there are a *shitload* of places available...

[yeahman]

I know Big Sky lodging is not full for Christmas because they keep sending promotional emails to book rooms. I'm hoping they are forced to lower prices as the season goes on because they tried to jack them way up this year.

[Name Redacted]

My STR is booked solid from last week through 4/1, mostly return customers. Should probably jack up the prices.

[schuss]

Read the article. They don’t want to be beholden to Airbnbs rules which can change any time and screw up your business. It is a real threat when you are that invested in one platform. Airbnb doesn’t always side with the landlord either. Shitty tenants can screw thing up and you might only make $1.2m next year.

I'm betting all the promotion work and other stuff they mention will end up being a hell of a lot more than the 3% in exchange for less business as people don't want to go out of their way discoverability-wise.

[liv2ski]

Just doing a quick search of Big Sky and Jackson the week after Xmas - there are a *shitload* of places available...

Looking Dec 28th thru Jan 2nd there are 17 in Mammoth. Looks like the owners really do not want to rent it, as the cheapest is $500 to $1,500 a night. The properties are no big deal either.

[Name Redacted]

I'm betting all the promotion work and other stuff they mention will end up being a hell of a lot more than the 3% in exchange for less business as people don't want to go out of their way discoverability-wise.

Oh, I agree. Personally, I probably would have put this all on auto pilot through a management company and pay them 30% of profits while I was out doing anything but working.