Is the stock market going to tank?

**Brock Landers** · 10-21-2022, 02:11 PM

Originally Posted by summit

^That should lower import costs and stimulate Chinese production and thus raw material demands?

Wouldn’t exactly work that way, increased economic activity would drive commodities and shipping higher. After the whole impending recession thing actually happens.

**4matic** · 10-21-2022, 02:20 PM

VIX higher in a 2% up market. That’s actually the way it’s supposed to work. Uncertainty.

**BobMc** · 10-21-2022, 08:47 PM

I grabbed two shares of GOOG for $98, and two shares of AAPL for $142, both filled premarket. I’ll probably pick up a couple of each on every dip from now on.

Tried to sell a Nov 4, $11 strike on F for $.30, missed it by a couple cents. I’m kinda wishing I’d put in a limit order and just bought some outright. Fed possibly backing off on rate increases juiced the market a bit. Next week GM and F both report earnings. I think the lack of new cars has created a demand that is pent up, supply chain issues are seeming to work themselves out. Even if earnings disappoint, I wouldn’t be surprised to see improved guidance. I like F and I’ll probably be buying no matter which way the earnings fall.

I like to post in this thread because I think I’m showing that even an idiot can make some cash in the market, I could be totally wrong. I hope people reading along will be thinking about their future. Don’t be me and suddenly realize you’re in your mid fifties and you should probably start thinking about the future.

Start putting money away in your youth, let that shit compound and have the years work for you.

**m2711c** · 10-21-2022, 08:52 PM

tgr... where the youths go for sound financial advice.

fact.

**Ted Striker** · 10-21-2022, 10:47 PM

Yeah, every time GOOGL dips below 100 I buy a few shares too. For some reason I keep missing the AAPL dips.

And from where I'm sitting, you're doing pretty good Bob.

**406** · 10-22-2022, 12:59 PM

got a fill notification that my XOM hit my target sell price of $105 on Friday, probably will end up regretting not setting that higher, but can't complain about ~170% gain. Portfolio is looking pretty bad as I sell off all the winners, ha. Mostly just buying VOO on dips, but also some VNQ, VEU, VYM, VAW.

Tempted to do some TLH, since stuff I would sell at a loss I would buy VOO and don't plan to sell that until no longer have w-2 income. Or will just keep taking my losses as dumb buys get delisted.

**schuss** · 10-22-2022, 04:41 PM

Originally Posted by Kevo

Word is that there a lot of late stage private companies that are running out of money and can't IPO without major carnage. They also can't re-raise in private markets either without taking a major down round or because there is just no VC money left.

This is 100% not a surprise to many in the tech world. I know our corp vc guys have largely sat on the sidelines last few years as they were unwilling to write multi million dollar checks on 2 days of due diligence.
Lotta bullshit out there.

**4matic** · 10-22-2022, 08:40 PM

The high yield and ig bond guys are going clean this cycle up as long economy doesn’t completely collapse.

**Brock Landers** · 10-23-2022, 01:51 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

The high yield and ig bond guys are going clean this cycle up as long economy doesn’t completely collapse.

Yessirrr

Broad HY outyielding most private credit now

**4matic** · 10-24-2022, 09:50 AM

Lots of new inventory plus folks giving up the Abnb star eyes:

“Rents are falling on a month-over-month basis now. This may take some time to show up in data sets like CPI that rely on owner's equivalent rent surveys, but nevertheless it is an encouraging development in the economy.”

**4matic** · 10-24-2022, 12:11 PM

Natural gas prices in the Permian Basin of West Texas “are plunging toward zero,” amid “booming production.”

If prices go negative, energy producers “will effectively be paying someone to take gas off their hands ..”

**Kevo** · 10-24-2022, 01:27 PM

Have negative commodity prices happened outside of Covid oil?

Knowing a tiny little about that industry, I'd guess producers in the Permian Basin would flare off their gas before paying someone to take it. As recently as 2019 producers across the US were flaring off more than 1 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day.

**406** · 10-24-2022, 01:38 PM

^^^that is why I don't get the anti natural gas "green" movement...it is going to get burned no matter what.

**Dantheman** · 10-24-2022, 01:50 PM

Originally Posted by Kevo

Knowing a tiny little about that industry, I'd guess producers in the Permian Basin would flare off their gas before paying someone to take it. As recently as 2019 producers across the US were flaring off more than 1 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day.

Knowing even less about that industry, they can't just keep the valve closed and wait to sell that gas when prices recover? They have to be shipping or flaring it?

**4matic** · 10-24-2022, 02:13 PM

Can’t indiscriminately flare nat gas without penalty. Even in Texas

**bad dancer** · 10-24-2022, 02:22 PM

Is Facebook/Meta or whatever it's called now dead ? Seems like it's been hammered over the years. Can it come back ?

**J. Barron DeJong** · 10-24-2022, 02:24 PM

Originally Posted by Dantheman

Knowing even less about that industry, they can't just keep the valve closed and wait to sell that gas when prices recover? They have to be shipping or flaring it?

Also don’t know much about the industry, but I believe the natural gas is released during fracking operations. So if you trapped it and continued fracking/drilling to get oil, NG pressure in the well would build up; probably dangerously so.

**4matic** · 10-24-2022, 02:31 PM

Originally Posted by bad dancer

Is Facebook/Meta or whatever it's called now dead ? Seems like it's been hammered over the years. Can it come back ?

Probably but likely a lot lower before that happens. Never buy a triple bottom. There’s a lot of chart support from here lower but $50 is the next major point.

**dunfree** · 10-24-2022, 03:00 PM

Originally Posted by Kevo

Have negative commodity prices happened outside of Covid oil?

Knowing a tiny little about that industry, I'd guess producers in the Permian Basin would flare off their gas before paying someone to take it. As recently as 2019 producers across the US were flaring off more than 1 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day.

2019 Permian Natgas spot prices went negative multiple times. There’ve been electricity markets with negative prices. If you need to find someone to take it now because suppliers didn’t or couldn’t reduce production soon enough, it happens

**summit** · 10-24-2022, 03:03 PM

Originally Posted by 406

^^^that is why I don't get the anti natural gas "green" movement...it is going to get burned no matter what.

Those folks are so into sniffing their own farts that they think they have to oppose anything fossil fuel related no matter whether it actually is ecologically beneficial because the ultimate goal is to eliminate all fossil fuels ASAP and the associated pain must simply be accepted as part of the mission.

These are not big picture people. They only think it terms of "cut carbon emissions AND don't enable carbon emissions, literally nothing else matters... if it was legal to destroy everyone's ICE car and ban air travel, that would be ideal."

**4matic** · 10-24-2022, 07:46 PM

Not exactly bullish if you’re contrarian:

“.. hedging for doom and gloom is falling out of fashion fast .. the relative cost of contracts that pay off if the S&P 500 Index sinks another 10% has collapsed to the lowest since 2017.”

**pepperdawg** · 10-25-2022, 06:07 AM

Originally Posted by Dantheman

Knowing even less about that industry, they can't just keep the valve closed and wait to sell that gas when prices recover? They have to be shipping or flaring it?

Dumb ? - Nat Gas = Propane? Nat gas gets turned into propane?

Not Hank Hill selling Propane and Propane Acc...

**schuss** · 10-25-2022, 07:27 AM

Originally Posted by bad dancer

Is Facebook/Meta or whatever it's called now dead ? Seems like it's been hammered over the years. Can it come back ?

Their foundational problem is that they can never get rid of Zuckerberg. They could make a comeback if they axed him, took some steps to undo some of the toxic algorithms and predatory models, but with him there's an increasing amount of people who will never engage with their products.
Once they lost out on ability to use phone VPN research clients they also lost some of their ability to tastespot and exploit up and comers (see: instagram, wechat), and given how they've treated the companies they've bought, no founder that gives a shit about their company legacy will sell to them (they've reneged on many items to many people).
I will throw a party if they go anywhere close to zero. A lot of smart people there wasting a ton of time on bullshit for a wannabe king.

**BobMc** · 10-25-2022, 06:56 PM

Hit and miss day for me today. ARCC beat on eps and sales and raised the dividend 12%. ET raised their dividend by 15%. GM beat estimates and pulled F up. Then Alphabet fucked it all up, missed on earnings and revenue. That seemed to drag down everything after hours.

I wouldn’t be surprised if that drags the entire market down tomorrow. It’ll be interesting to see if AAPL follows suit with a disappointment or brings it all back up on Thursday.

**Brock Landers** · 10-25-2022, 07:31 PM

Originally Posted by BobMc

Hit and miss day for me today. ARCC beat on eps and sales and raised the dividend 12%. ET raised their dividend by 15%. GM beat estimates and pulled F up. Then Alphabet fucked it all up, missed on earnings and revenue. That seemed to drag down everything after hours.

I wouldn’t be surprised if that drags the entire market down tomorrow. It’ll be interesting to see if AAPL follows suit with a disappointment or brings it all back up on Thursday.

Fundamentally google has been dogshit for 4 or 5 quarters now. Declining ad revenue hitting revenue badly. Maybe not as much a problem for apple, but big for twitter (if it’s not private) Facebook etc.

Growth equities up overall…and yields down on the day. Easy to figure that one out, at least for one day. Longer term as we go into a slowdown…even lower rates (driven by inflation rolling over simply on higher base levels from end of 2021 and early 2022) won’t save growth equities which may continue down based on lower revenue, activity, general economic activity.

Winters coming.