Is the stock market going to tank?

[SumJongGuy]

King crab have become self aware.

I'm not sure what's driving the markets higher? Maybe the good old pump and dump scam by WS?

[Toadman]

Well, now at least we have stone cold hard evidence of what is driving the market higher.

[4matic]

Well, now at least we have stone cold hard evidence of what is driving the market higher.

Lower energy commodities is biggest driver for now. NG looks 50% lower on the chart. Crude oil another $30 lower

The key is another leg down in gasoline. It has led the way higher and lower recently

[4matic]

Euro NG price down 60% plus. Lower than it was 12 months ago:

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

[gravitylover]

They need to figure out how to process more LNG. I read an article this morning that was saying there are at least 3 dozen LNG boats sitting offshore waiting to dock because they don't have the regasification capacity to process all the LNG the world has sent. Spain has the most capacity and they only have 4 plants but have 22 boats waiting to unload.

[Master of Energy]

I'm not sure what's driving the markets higher?

earnings. And the fed may have threaded the needle.

[4matic]

Of >400 listings where companies raised at least $100 million between 2019 and 2021, 76% are now below their IPO price and median return since IPO date is -44%

[Kevo]

Of >400 listings where companies raised at least $100 million between 2019 and 2021, 76% are now below their IPO price and median return since IPO date is -44%

Word is that there a lot of late stage private companies that are running out of money and can't IPO without major carnage. They also can't re-raise in private markets either without taking a major down round or because there is just no VC money left.

[BobMc]

I ended up buying back both of my calls on XOM and MRO, made $31 apiece from them. Sold another call on MRO today, got $3.85 for an April 21, $30 strike, it rose a bit today and put me underwater by fifteen bucks, I’ve got plenty of time to buy it back on a swoon day. Sold a put on SOFI for $.46, $5 strike for Nov 4th. They report earnings on the 1st, I’m betting on a beat and I get to keep the money. Worst case scenario I’m in another 100 shares at $4.54, which I’m ok with.

It’s nice having cash around to be able to play conservative options. I like the idea of bringing in another couple hundred a month for free, supplement my contributions and keep growing that pile. Meanwhile it lets me keep my recent cash infusion liquid in case of a crash.

[Cono Este]

Omg, I’m home in the Bay Area staying with a realtor friend and she says this mkt is at a stand still. People who bought 10mm homes on loans against stock already up shit creek and taking out home equity loans to make the payments.

Timberrrrrr

[huckbucket]

Omg, I’m home in the Bay Area staying with a realtor friend and she says this mkt is at a stand still. People who bought 10mm homes on loans against stock already up shit creek and taking out home equity loans to make the payments.

Timberrrrrr

So a high-risk strategy failed. In other news, water is wet and the Pope is (or use to be) Polish.

[ötzi]

Omg

[MCS5280]

"Most qualified buyers in history" sang the mortgage brokers.
"This time is actually different" sang the dirtpimps.

[fastfred]

Word is that there a lot of late stage private companies that are running out of money and can't IPO without major carnage. They also can't re-raise in private markets either without taking a major down round or because there is just no VC money left.

this is the nail in the coffin
free cheap easy money
companies that produce absolutely nothing and create services by passing the buck and not really creating anything but adding a middle man to the chain
when the debt comes due interest rates are through the roof and they can't pay
at least I can hire all these tech workers without a job to dig ditches

Omg, I’m home in the Bay Area staying with a realtor friend and she says this mkt is at a stand still. People who bought 10mm homes on loans against stock already up shit creek and taking out home equity loans to make the payments.

Timberrrrrr

yeah I really believe that anytime anything comes out of a realtors mouth I know it's absolute bullshit my dog is smarter than a realtor

[Kevo]

Omg, I’m home in the Bay Area staying with a realtor friend and she says this mkt is at a stand still. People who bought 10mm homes on loans against stock already up shit creek and taking out home equity loans to make the payments.

Timberrrrrr

That's horrible. When is a government program going to be announced to backstop the homeowners' risk taking behavior? No one should forced to endure the consequences of their actions. No one who buys an asset should EVER see their asset prices go down. Anything is better than depreciation!

We could call the program the "Equity Protection Program" or something. Home prices and stock prices shouldn't fall.

[4matic]

Redfin could go out of business. Stock at $3

[skaredshtles]

Home equity loans to make payments?

BRILLIANT!

[4matic]

Nat gas down another 10%. Down almost 50% in two months.

[4matic]

Container ship backup in LA..zero

[ötzi]

Container ship backup in LA..zero

From a peak of 109, wow.

Notably, freight rates have plummeted. Containers from Asia to LA were over $20 grand and now have fallen below $3 grand. https://www.wsj.com/articles/souther...ds-11666344603

[4matic]

Container rates still have a long way to fall. Suspect they will.

[summit]

My understanding:

The inflation of the container rates was nuts.
The return to normal on the rates is expected
Decreased Chinese output is helping to accelerate the fall

[Brock Landers]

My understanding:

The inflation of the container rates was nuts.
The return to normal on the rates is expected
Decreased Chinese output is helping to accelerate the fall

I’d say container rates will go below the norm/average before Jan 1

[summit]

^That should lower import costs and stimulate Chinese production and thus raw material demands?

[4matic]

With retail inventories so high and home sales so low durable goods gonna slow. Look a whirlpool. Household formation hasn’t rolled over yet.