The Great Resignation ‘21

[old_newguy]

Mrs. DJSapp used to work in a proper pre-K school as a teacher and was on her way to assistant principal. The teachers don't get paid much above min wage which is rough enough for the accreditation and licenses they need to personally carry, and the admins aren't exactly bringing home the bacon either. When we had our first kid, we enrolled her in the school and even with the employee discount, she was only netting about $200/month more after taxes. We talked it over and even with a promotion on the horizon we said fuck this noise, we'll figure it out and Mrs. DJSapp stayed at home ever since 2011 because we wanted a second kid and knew it just wasn't going to pencil out, on top of her feeling super stressed out that she wasn't with her kid during the day.

There are several issues with pre-k education. First is mandatory kid to teacher ratios. For the youngest age groups it is something crazy high, like 4:1. As they get older the ratio gets better, but the shear amount of teachers needed to fill these schools is huge. Way more than elementary schools. State and Fed compliance is a big deal as well and pretty much consumes a couple of staff. The reasons the schools charge by the minute for overtime is due to the fact they're in violation of the labor laws (think DOT trucker hours) and the teachers just are not supposed to be in care of kids that long. Usually they backfill the overtime class with some of the admin staff to stay within ratio, but they have shit to do as well. Facility maintenance is a big deal as little kids are big disease vectors and cleaning is a real cost. Insurance is significant, but not as big of a cost as one would think.

Pre-K schools need federal subsidies or else they're only going to be for the super wealthy. Full stop.

Insurance really isn't bad for childcare facilities. They have to add molestation coverage but in the grand scheme, they are not much more than other brick and motor businesses that also have to carry specialized coverages like mechanics, bars/restaurants, landscapers, architects, etc.

What's bad is parent wages often don't support paying higher rates for childcare so parents go to single income households. The margins on operating a childcare facility are low and that's with paying low wages. We'll need government intervention of some sort or employers are going to continue to have a shit labor pool.

I don't have kids and can still realize that I'd rather pay a little more for other peoples kids in exchange for them not robbing me in their early years and someday getting smart enough to treat my medical conditions.

Not sure if the following plays a role but it seems young families used to have both parents working even if the second income was small to save to reach to the American dream of home ownership. With housing at the level it is, I posit that some families may be giving up on that dream and are just choosing to enjoy what they have with their families while renting. Maybe they're realizing that time can be worth more than assets especially when those assets are unattainable for many.

School COVID closures and remote school pushed a lot of people out of the workforce in households that can afford it just for the life balance.

At current rates with two kids not in school you need to be post-tax and benefits netting $30-35,000 per year plus expenses for it to make sense. So is saving a couple hundred bucks month worth all of the hassle?

[dunfree]

Was just thinking about this. Another ‘factor’ to all of this is that when most of the employees are ready to quit at the first challenging interaction, management has to lower all standards in order to retain them. So you end up with marginal quality employees that DGAF. Even at slightly higher wages.
Just an observation here, not an apology for management or whatever.

Uh, that happened 5 years ago. Drug tests were the first “quality” standard to go. Places were actively recruiting ex-cons in 2019 before covid hit.

[old_newguy]

I see your point, for sure. But I was more referring to front-line retail and food service/hospitality. (Being treated like shit by the customers rather than management)

Was just thinking about this. Another ‘factor’ to all of this is that when most of the employees are ready to quit at the first challenging interaction, management has to lower all standards in order to retain them. So you end up with marginal quality employees that DGAF. Even at slightly higher wages.
Just an observation here, not an apology for management or whatever.

You don’t really think people are quitting retail jobs after one shitty interaction do you?

A) if you are young they are told that these minimum wage retail jobs are “entry level”, “not meant to be a career” and b) they should move on to a new job for a real career c) have been told they are “essential” while they are getting treated as disposable.

[Conundrum]

School COVID closures and remote school pushed a lot of people out of the workforce in households that can afford it just for the life balance.

At current rates with two kids not in school you need to be post-tax and benefits netting $30-35,000 per year plus expenses for it to make sense. So is saving a couple hundred bucks month worth all of the hassle?

Yes, that is my point. A few extra hundred a month over a few years used to put a family in a position to have a down payment on a first house. Now it's more like $2-3,000/month to save anything meaningful for a first home purchase. What's the point in working and letting someone else raise your kids to continue to rent until your parents die so you can move into their house?

[Danno]

The problem is the child care is a fundamentally broken market. That's not according to me, that's according to our US treasury department Paying staff more requires raising tuition which parents can't afford already. Less than 5% of child care facilities are more than 4% profitable. No one is getting rich and everything is shitty. It's needs to be moved into a model much more akin to K-12 education which isn't just about education -- it's about child care so parents can work. Look at every other developed country and you'll see the US at the very bottom of the list in social spending on child care.

Another data point on this. My brother is a preschool teacher, and has been living overseas for decades. He has set up schools and preschool programs, so not just a teacher but also has been an administrator. He makes a good living doing it.

Years ago, he considered moving back the states and looked around for work. He discovered that even as an administrator, he couldn't come close to the salary and lifestyle that he had overseas. So he went back to being an expat.

[Conundrum]

Another data point on this. My brother is a preschool teacher, and has been living overseas for decades. He has set up schools and preschool programs, so not just a teacher but also has been an administrator. He makes a good living doing it.

Years ago, he considered moving back the states and looked around for work. He discovered that even as an administrator, he couldn't come close to the salary and lifestyle that he had overseas. So he went back to being an expat.

Ha! The US got out capitalisticized by "socialist" economies...weird.

[rideit]

You don’t really think people are quitting retail jobs after one shitty interaction do you?

A) if you are young they are told that these minimum wage retail jobs are “entry level”, “not meant to be a career” and b) they should move on to a new job for a real career c) have been told they are “essential” while they are getting treated as disposable.

I guess my local perspective is skewed due to our housing problem, among other things. The quality of ‘entry level’ employees/new hires is problematic. As is the ‘over it’ sentiment among the long time, good ones. People are sick of being treated like shit, and actually have options in this hiring environment. The observation is as simple as that.

[schuss]

I see your point, for sure. But I was more referring to front-line retail and food service/hospitality. (Being treated like shit by the customers rather than management)

Being treated like shit by customers stings regardless. When it's coupled with low pay and spineless managers that don't back you to the customer, why the fuck would anyone keep showing up to be abused? Even when I was a teenager, the difference of experience of "supportive boss" compared to "shitty apologist" was enormous to one's own feelings of self-worth.

[SumJongGuy]

So we're finally around the point as an economy where people can comfortably demand more than $8/hour for the shittiest jobs available??? COOL! Yes, I know that means I'll have to pay more for a Big Mac going forward...

[rideit]

Here minimum wage starts around $20.00 an hour if you are the least bit reliable.

[liv2ski]

Was just thinking about this. Another ‘factor’ to all of this is that when most of the employees are ready to quit at the first challenging interaction, management has to lower all standards in order to retain them. So you end up with marginal quality employees that DGAF. Even at slightly higher wages.
Just an observation here, not an apology for management or whatever.

My daughter is the assistant mgr in a nice restaurant. The stories I hear about hiring and keeping good employees is nuts. The mgr hired a buddy that was an absolute psycho. Getting rid of that guy was a nightmare. I am so glad I am in a position to blow work off. I couldn't do it anymore. And ya, tip the people doing work if you want to see them again.

[dunfree]

I guess my local perspective is skewed due to our housing problem, among other things. The quality of ‘entry level’ employees/new hires is problematic. As is the ‘over it’ sentiment among the long time, good ones. People are sick of being treated like shit, and actually have options in this hiring environment. The observation is as simple as that.

This is nationwide, dingus.

[rideit]

Yes, but it was being countered by someone on here, that’s the entire premise of the thread!

(I was being polite, and reiterating it)

[Timberridge]

The good news for anyone quitting now is AMZN is looking to hire 150,000 for the holidays.

[4matic]

Maybe because over 3/4 of those deaths are over full retirement age. About 165k people under 65 but older than 18 have died. Tack on a couple hundred under 18 if you do desire.

Meanwhile 4 million have left the workforce entirely while still being perfectly alive. That’s a shitload of people to replace and it’s been a good opportunity for those still working to move on to better things. More people basically dropped out of the workforce last month alone than have died from COVID in almost 20 months total.

Anyone with a kid under 5 is particularly hard pressed to work right now. My daycare just sent a notice at 5pm on Sunday that they will be closed indefinitely starting tomorrow because 1 elementary school child, who does not attend the after school program they also provide, nor is related to anyone who does, contracted covid. After 18 months of this how many parents can just no show on a Monday because of that? The might open back up if contact tracing shows no other exposure in a couple days at best. That’s a problem no amount of govt intervention can fix.

Let alone finding daycare is like winning the lottery to begin with.

Affordable/accessible daycare is a liberal agenda item:

$25 billion to the upgrade and construction of child care facilities, including with the creation of a new Child Care Growth and Innovation Fund.

[concretejungle]

The good news for anyone quitting now is AMZN is looking to hire 150,000 for the holidays.

They’re going to run out of people to cycle through eventually.

[rideit]

Aha, here it all is, probably better put.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...rating/620382/

[Meadow Skipper]

Was just thinking about this. Another ‘factor’ to all of this is that when most of the employees are ready to quit at the first challenging interaction, management has to lower all standards in order to retain them. So you end up with marginal quality employees that DGAF. Even at slightly higher wages.

And then (hopefully) customers go elsewhere and the employer (hopefully) finally figures it out and raises wages instead of lowering standards…hopefully. In a perfect capitalist world anyway.

Edit: also what schuss said.

[riser4]

When we had our third child my wife opened an in-home day care. It wasn't worth keeping her job because it was only adding about $80 month to the household after we paid for day care x3 even though one kid was already after school only. That was before universal Pre-K in VT. All we had to do was buy another fire extinguisher and add a railing to the porch steps. I am not sure exactly how much she made but it was more than $80/mo so we were ahead. She eventually opened her private practice. The kids all went to school after a while and I started working from home. That eliminated the need for after school care. So we lucked out. It still wasn't easy and we were on the financial edge for a while. We had privilege that some folks don't have.

[Mustonen]

I guess my local perspective is skewed due to our housing problem, among other things. The quality of ‘entry level’ employees/new hires is problematic. As is the ‘over it’ sentiment among the long time, good ones. People are sick of being treated like shit, and actually have options in this hiring environment. The observation is as simple as that.

This is nationwide, dingus.

Well, I think the housing problem probably plays into this in a significant way. There’s only so far your average entry level employee is going to be willing/able to go to sling ‘zas at the local joint. If they (or their family) is able to afford to live close enough to make it worth it, they likely have a bigger cushion and less fucks to give.

If the pizza joint is in an area with abundant low income housing, then the labor pool is more likely to have less cushion and accordingly, more fucks. They’ll plaster a smile on their face, put up with Carl’s shit, etc.

[dunfree]

If the pizza joint is in an area with abundant low income housing, then the labor pool is more likely to have less cushion and accordingly, more fucks. They’ll plaster a smile on their face, put up with Carl’s shit, etc.

lol, no, no they won’t ime. What matters is the balance of low income workers to low income jobs.

[east or bust]

Eh, I'm in corpo world, but there's been very few interactions with the younger set that makes me inclined to say they'll "quit at the first challenging interaction." I think plenty will quit if they hit challenges and management doesn't have their back to any extent, because that's a loser of a situation long-term. You can fix your work expertise over time, but you can't really fix management that doesn't give a flying fuck about you. I'm sure I'm not the easiest to work for, but even when I'm calling my employees out, they feel that I'm doing it to make them better, not to just abuse them. That's an important distinction many don't get, as they just yell and moan about their shitty employees, when their job as a manager is to take an employee and to make them awesome. Sometimes it doesn't work, but I'd put money on the bitchers and moaners not doing anything constructive over employees just all being rotten.
How many places do you know that are ruined by one shitty person that no one wants to work with but management won't fire? Many workplace problems are relatively easy to solve if you listen and spend time on the cultural infrastructure and have the stones/ovaries to tell problematic people to knock it off or be booted, but many just don't do it because it's hard.

Hit the nail on the head. It’s mind blowing that this line of thinking is lost on some people.

Been working for a large corporate GC for the last 5 and a half years and the turnover rate amongst our entry level 1-5 year engineers is atrocious. I’ve worked on 3 separate projects with this company and here are the figures ( not including me)

Project 1: 4 of 4 quit
Project 2: 5 of 6 quit
Project 3: 6 of 9 quit and we’re only half way done!

It’s funny, but totally makes sense, how managers are appointed here. It basically requires no questioning of whatever policies get barfed down the food chain, being totally alright with working insane hours on a salary payroll, no reflexibility whatsoever when it comes to teh rulz, and just a boot licker attitude in general.

Example: Friday going into a holiday weekend, craft cuts out at 1pm. Couple engineers finish their shit and leave at 2pm (instead of 5pm), manager goes into payroll system and enters 8hrs vacation for each of them without notifying them. What the actual fuck.

Example 2: We had morning meetings everyday with all of the engineers to go over their tasks… ok, feels micro managy AF already. What this meeting devolved into over the course of a few months was an opportunity for management to berate the engineers and left us know, almost daily, how replaceable we all were. Well the joke was on them when people started dropping like flies, and it turned out they weren’t as replaceable as it was made to be known.

[old_newguy]

Hit the nail on the head. It’s mind blowing that this line of thinking is lost on some people.

Been working for a large corporate GC for the last 5 and a half years and the turnover rate amongst our entry level 1-5 year engineers is atrocious. I’ve worked on 3 separate projects with this company and here are the figures ( not including me)

Project 1: 4 of 4 quit
Project 2: 5 of 6 quit
Project 3: 6 of 9 quit and we’re only half way done!

It’s funny, but totally makes sense, how managers are appointed here. It basically requires no questioning of whatever policies get barfed down the food chain, being totally alright with working insane hours on a salary payroll, no reflexibility whatsoever when it comes to teh rulz, and just a boot licker attitude in general.

Example: Friday going into a holiday weekend, craft cuts out at 1pm. Couple engineers finish their shit and leave at 2pm (instead of 5pm), manager goes into payroll system and enters 8hrs vacation for each of them without notifying them. What the actual fuck.

Example 2: We had morning meetings everyday with all of the engineers to go over their tasks… ok, feels micro managy AF already. What this meeting devolved into over the course of a few months was an opportunity for management to berate the engineers and left us know, almost daily, how replaceable we all were. Well the joke was on them when people started dropping like flies, and it turned out they weren’t as replaceable as it was made to be known.

WhY DonT PeoPle WAnt to WoRK iN COnstrCtion? Is EvEyone lAzy nOw?

[Vt-Freeheel]

25 billion into building childcare facilities? Who is going to build this out? Where are the extra materials coming from? Are there 10s of thousands of qualified people to staff them?

This whole multi trillion dollar bill keeps talking about millions of jobs when there doesn't seem to be enough bodies to fill the ones that we already have.

[dunfree]

25 billion into building childcare facilities? Who is going to build this out? Where are the extra materials coming from? Are there 10s of thousands of qualified people to staff them?

This whole multi trillion dollar bill keeps talking about millions of jobs when there doesn't seem to be enough bodies to fill the ones that we already have.

4:1 seems like a decent multiplier.