Is the stock market going to tank?

**Brock Landers** · 04-09-2009, 09:07 PM

Originally Posted by Moeghoul

Reflation is starting to creep into the picture.

Been in the picture since January. Its going to come hard and its going to come fast...once it comes. Look for commodity prices to start to shoot up (not gold necessarily) and treasury yields down. Better than deflation, but there is a TON of money supply out there to get this economy running again. TIPS were up big in March.

**Benny Profane** · 04-21-2009, 07:31 PM

**Benny Profane** · 04-21-2009, 07:34 PM

**Benny Profane** · 05-03-2009, 07:43 PM

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/goldberg-economy

“The average person can’t really trust anybody. They can’t trust a broker, because the broker is interested in churning commissions. They can’t trust a mutual fund, because the mutual fund is interested in gathering a lot of assets and keeping them. And now it’s even worse because even the most sophisticated people have no idea what’s going on.”

Oh, and here's a laugher from their archives. You may remember these guys and the book.....

Dow 36,000

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/199909/dow

**grapedrink** · 05-06-2009, 06:42 AM

here's a great video from abc news about the banking crisis, even a six year could understand

http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=7490761

**4matic** · 05-08-2009, 08:13 PM

If we clear SP00 950 with any momentum the gap at 1100 is in play. 950 is significant but the moentum of this move is impressive. Eight out of that last nine weeks have been higher for SP00. NAS is up nine weeks straight. INDU is the week leg and it may lead the way higher from here with the temporary rotation out of tech. I'd probobly be a seller above 1050 SP00.

**Moeghoul** · 05-08-2009, 09:01 PM

I'm outta everything long except precious metals today. Plan to start shorting next week, if history is a guide there isn't much steam left in this move.

**bean** · 05-08-2009, 10:00 PM

I love that the markets are rallying on bad news spun as good news. What use are official unemployment numbers when they end up revising them substantially upwards for two more reporting periods? Not to mention the total joke of the stress tests. Reality is already worse than their "worst case" scenario.

**William S. Burg** · 05-08-2009, 10:13 PM

stock markets are for people who are slave to the man! free yourselves from its shackles!

**4matic** · 05-08-2009, 10:28 PM

Originally Posted by Moeghoul

I'm outta everything long except precious metals today. Plan to start shorting next week, if history is a guide there isn't much steam left in this move.

History? On the weekly chart you have an acceleration out of a reverse head and shoulders with a gap at 50% retracement of the whole move at 1100.

Good luck with your shorts..

http://www.quote.com/us/stocks/chart...artUi.minutes=

**Brock Landers** · 05-09-2009, 03:00 PM

Originally Posted by Bean

I love that the markets are rallying on bad news spun as good news. What use are official unemployment numbers when they end up revising them substantially upwards for two more reporting periods? Not to mention the total joke of the stress tests. Reality is already worse than their "worst case" scenario.

The prices seen in the past were based off of the assumption of much worse numbers. THats why "less bad" is good. The expectation reflected in the past was even worse.

Unemployment isnt a huge thing- I think the fact that the banking system as a whole didnt completely fail the stress tests is what the market rallied on. Sure, some banks need more money, and thats fine. But its not like the whole system got crushed.

And reality is nowhere near worst case the stress tests had. Check out the stats on the recession in the early 1980s. This isnt the first recession in history, and I dont see any breadlines out my door. Yeah, 9% unemployment sucks, but its happened before. Losing so much ground in the stock market has happened before (just not as fast). When it comes to stocks and pricing and markets, theres not much "spin". People can generally figure things out for themselves and make financial decisions based on it.

**Moeghoul** · 05-09-2009, 03:14 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

History? On the weekly chart you have an acceleration out of a reverse head and shoulders with a gap at 50% retracement of the whole move at 1100.

Good luck with your shorts..

http://www.quote.com/us/stocks/chart...artUi.minutes=

Historically after big crashes the bear rally in the following year died in April or May. Send me a postcard from the top.

Rally in financials was prolly done with boatloads of tarp money, and the banks bought back and bought each others stock ramming them higher for more dilution at higher prices. Squeezing shorts and talk of the uptick rule prolly chased a few of them out as well. The Stress Tests were individually tailored for each bank, mark to market went to the wayside, nobody fails (wadda suprise), and the books are as suspect as they were before the crash. Wave 2 of the credit contraction is in sight. Can we see SP 1100? anything is possible but I doubt it.

**bean** · 05-09-2009, 04:35 PM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

The prices seen in the past were based off of the assumption of much worse numbers. THats why "less bad" is good. The expectation reflected in the past was even worse.

Unemployment isnt a huge thing- I think the fact that the banking system as a whole didnt completely fail the stress tests is what the market rallied on. Sure, some banks need more money, and thats fine. But its not like the whole system got crushed.

And reality is nowhere near worst case the stress tests had. Check out the stats on the recession in the early 1980s. This isnt the first recession in history, and I dont see any breadlines out my door. Yeah, 9% unemployment sucks, but its happened before. Losing so much ground in the stock market has happened before (just not as fast). When it comes to stocks and pricing and markets, theres not much "spin". People can generally figure things out for themselves and make financial decisions based on it.

The stress tests are total BS and yes, the worst case in the stress test is less bad than reality. I don't think "Brock Landers observes breadlines" is one of the factors analyzed during the test. CRE was, and the CRE bust is accelerating fast. Unemployment is already worse than the worst case scenario in the stress test.

The numbers are bullshit. The rally is bullshit. The people who think it's getting better are idiots. There is no recovery, and won't be for a long time.

**Platinum Pete** · 05-11-2009, 11:03 AM

So the stress test was rigged a bit? What % of faith would you have in them? I'm not talking about actually buying a financial stock, but if they shit the bed again they will drag a lot down with them.
The banks are almost as shaky as before, but with a little more time holding these "toxic assets" and probably greater perspective on what that is or isn't - do I have that right? How does that effect things?
Wave2 or 3 of the credit smoosh is consumer credit and commercial property, right? Are these seen as connected much? If so, what are the indicators to look at - unemployment? consumer confidence? savings rate? Wal-Mart/Kroger/Target stock price?
What other sharks are in the water for the stock market right now?

I've got another chunk of cash to plop in the market - last time I put it in at around dow 7300, I'd love to buy in on the low again.

**Moeghoul** · 05-11-2009, 01:53 PM

Originally Posted by Moeghoul

Rally in financials was prolly done with boatloads of tarp money, and the banks bought back and bought each others stock ramming them higher for more dilution at higher prices.

Told ya so.

Four Big US Banks Selling Stock To Repay TARP

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30681187

**Moeghoul** · 05-11-2009, 01:59 PM

We'll prolly retest the lows. My outlook is we chop sideways and lower into June, then we hit an inflection to retest lows.

Hugh Conway · 05-11-2009, 03:09 PM

Originally Posted by Bean

The numbers are bullshit. The rally is bullshit. The people who think it's getting better are idiots. There is no recovery, and won't be for a long time.

My informal survey of various business inventories/conditions would agree with you. Demand for transapacific flights is near zero. Hell, demand for just about any flights are near zero. Weekends, Prime business hours, doesn't matter. Same applies to anything related to consumers and anything related to corporations. Conditions seem worse than they were a month ago.

**LeeLau** · 05-11-2009, 03:14 PM

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

My informal survey of various business inventories/conditions would agree with you. Demand for transapacific flights is near zero. Hell, demand for just about any flights are near zero. Weekends, Prime business hours, doesn't matter. Same applies to anything related to consumers and anything related to corporations. Conditions seem worse than they were a month ago.

In the real world, HC is right. This extends to clients who are broadband telcos who buy h/w and s/w; clients who process payments for gaming enterprises (that's right even poker playing handles are down); clients who build dams; clients who provide engineering services; consumer software providers to users of laptops and mobile devices. Friends who own bike shops and ski shops have reduced orders of goods for the coming season.

The only business which is currently up is in collections and bad debt recoveries. Strangely even a client in pay day loans has seen gross revs down

**ICEHOCEY77** · 05-11-2009, 06:23 PM

Interesting how this week is going to be. Price has rejected the 8500 level three times. Throw in the 150 EMA level and this could be the beginning of the decline. I'll be watching the 8300 level as there is a Fibonacci support level that has done well as a price zone. If we end the week under the 8300 level, I'll be pulling my money out.

**Benny Profane** · 05-11-2009, 07:25 PM

Just think of all the corrupt and illegal money was made in the past six weeks with Citi, among others, going from 1 to 4 (almost like a penny stock market, huh?). Let's see, a former Goldman employee, who replaced another Goldman CEO, takes a real long time releasing "stress tests" haha. He is competing with another advisor to the prez for his ear who got paid over 150,000 just to "speak" at a Goldman function last year, and made 5 million working one day a week for a hedge fund. They devise a bear market rally that will buy a few million here and there for summer expenses out in the Hamptons and Nantucket. Rumors are spread. Cheerleading is ratcheted up. "The banks are sound! The banks are sound!" They make it on the way up, and sell short last week. You are the sucka.

Why anybody would buy an American or Euro or Japanese bank right now is illogical, Captain. But crime pays.

**Brock Landers** · 05-12-2009, 12:02 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Why anybody would buy an American or Euro or Japanese bank right now is illogical, Captain. But crime pays.

Ever think that maybe some of these banks are priced really low? For example, you refer to Citi going from 1 to 4 as some sort of bullshit thing. What if Citi was never worth 1? What if it was worth something like 4, and on its way down from 50 or whatever, it missed/overshot its "true" market value?

Ill give you some logic for why someone would buy a bank...the valuation is above the market price. Make sense?

**Benny Profane** · 05-12-2009, 04:39 AM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Ill give you some logic for why someone would buy a bank...the valuation is above the market price. Make sense?

How about they're insolvent and bankrupt, and wouldn't even exist if it wasn't for your forced charity, and will stay that way at least until housing prices stop going down, which won't happen for at least a year, probably two. But now it's like the old Soviet system, you know, the government pretends they're viable businesses, and they pretend to act like banks, and the employees pretend to work, as we pretend to pay them ....... hey, waitaminute, that last part is real.......

**Moeghoul** · 05-12-2009, 10:18 AM

Mr. Market is getting out his ugly stick, precious metals are getting ready to break out even higher.

**bean** · 05-12-2009, 10:59 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Citi, among others, going from 1 to 4 (almost like a penny stock market, huh?).

Dollar is the new penny, Citi's just ahead of the curve for the coming hyperflation.

So what's someone with a few grand in cash in an IRA to do? This market is completely nonsensical. SKF should be a solid bet but it's been beaten down to hell on the basis of the stress-free tests.

**Brock Landers** · 05-12-2009, 11:45 AM

Originally Posted by Bean

Dollar is the new penny, Citi's just ahead of the curve for the coming hyperflation.

So what's someone with a few grand in cash in an IRA to do? This market is completely nonsensical. SKF should be a solid bet but it's been beaten down to hell on the basis of the stress-free tests.

Up over 40% in my IRA YTD...and I just put everything in the fixed/stable acct today. Im not real confident in anything really, right now. What are the options in your employer's IRA plan?