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Thread: Winter Science in the PNW
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11-15-2016, 01:51 PM #1Registered User
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Winter Science in the PNW
I broke my back speedriding in Chamonix last spring. Prior to that event I had focused on improving weather forecasting for the avalanche and ski community, but had yet to coalesce the pieces into a unified product. That break gave me the time to do so. You can see the preliminary results here:
http://winterscience.com/about/
The UI is a bit thrown together, but the data being produced is very rich. It's a work in progress, but wanted to get it out there for anyone who is interested.
Obligatory photo of my last run over in Chamonix before everything went south:
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11-15-2016, 02:13 PM #2
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11-15-2016, 02:40 PM #3
subscribed
gonna read thru it later
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11-15-2016, 02:45 PM #4
Solid talk at NSAW this year. Way more pertinent than many of the others
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11-15-2016, 02:48 PM #5
Very cool. So what your projected opening for PNW ski areas?
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11-16-2016, 01:34 AM #6
nice. bookmarked
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11-16-2016, 04:27 PM #7
This is nice, was playing with it during the dump up here yesterday, the predictions were pretty much bang on with the timing and placement of precip.
www.skevikskis.com Check em out!
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11-16-2016, 05:01 PM #8
This is cool, thank you.
Hope your convalescence is or has been going well.
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11-16-2016, 07:02 PM #9
Very handy
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11-16-2016, 08:02 PM #10
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11-16-2016, 10:30 PM #11Registered User
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Great start! I like the simplicity of the site and it has a solid goal.
But homie, something is dreadfully wrong with your WRF physics selections (or something else in your model setup; no information is given so I can't help you) if you are underpredicting snow water equivalent by the magnitudes you are over the past 24-72 hours (this is at 8:20pm PST 16 November 2016). 4.63" observed but 0.76" predicted, yikes! Timberline is even worse!
Last edited by 2_1_3; 11-16-2016 at 10:33 PM. Reason: Add a few more stations for WRF verification
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11-16-2016, 10:52 PM #12Registered User
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Thanks for taking the time to give it a look. This is an example of bad UI and not a bad WRF. Those predictions are for the NEXT 72 hours, and the measurements are for the PREVIOUS 72 hours.
There's quite a bit in between the WRF runs and the output on the page. It depends on the case but the machine is using over a million learned points from historical WRF runs to create each hourly forecast. I've focused most of my time on that process as it has not been done before. If you're a WRF person I'd be interested in talking more about methods to optimize the start. Interestingly enough if it's actually better for me to keep perpetuating small errors in the model itself as the machine has learned to forecast for them, changes require rerunning years of WRF sims for re-learning to take place.
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11-16-2016, 10:56 PM #13
Bueno!
Damn shame, throwing away a perfectly good white boy like that
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11-16-2016, 11:07 PM #14Registered User
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11-16-2016, 11:44 PM #15Registered User
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very cool. i'm fascinated by machine learning. is applying it to weather forecasting a pretty new thing? i wonder how well it will predict relatively rare anomalies, since i can imagine there might not be a ton of these in the training data set.
may i ask what software/language you used to make the GUI?
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11-17-2016, 03:22 PM #16Registered User
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Word! Now that is some verification! These kinds of plots, with the next 72 hour forecast included, would be great to have on the site (perhaps instead of the big tables of values). As people see how well the model does overall they should be more inclined to utilize it and share it around or point out interesting events where it didn't verify as well.
I'll email you about some other suggestions/thoughts that will hopefully help improve to the products. Keep up the great work!
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11-17-2016, 03:35 PM #17
Question for you. On the forecasted accum precip map (west coast) what is the measurement? .01 to 6.0
Thanks.www.skevikskis.com Check em out!
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11-17-2016, 05:06 PM #18
I second this - That chart is very helpful! And clearly your model runs on a sub 12-hr basis (that chart looks like timesteps of 1hr?) - would it be possible to provide such data, rather than just 12,24,48 and 72 hrs?
On the snow forecast page: does this take the results from your SWE forecast page and regress against some relationship for (forecasted) temperature to produce snowfall in inches? If so, these don't appear to line up....i.e. currently the Paradise 72 hr SWE forecast=0.97" (on average ~10-12" of snow) but the snow forecast shows 0. (The snow forecast button is also gone, but clicking the area where it should be still links, so perhaps this is broken).
Also, wouldn't mind a few more graduations on the Wx Maps (more than just the min and max). Interpreting values between can be difficult. Also, would help clear up if the scale bar is linear (which I would assume).
VERY COOL PRODUCT though! Excited to see where this goes.
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11-17-2016, 05:07 PM #19
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11-18-2016, 04:51 AM #20
Where is this? I can't find forecasted new snow heights. In the forecast plots there is a grey "measured" button, which makes a block of shading appear when turned on, for past time steps. Is everything in the shaded block actually measured or is this the output of past model runs? Should there be an extra graph showing measured AWS data? Am I missing something here? (Also having a hard time with the weird units )
There is a typo on the starting page, you are thanking the "Northest" Avalanche Center.
Really, really cool site and project. Nice to see SNOWPACK output somewhere for everyone to look at.Ich bitte dich nur, weck mich nicht.
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11-20-2016, 09:52 PM #21Registered User
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It's in Django with bootstrap.
On the snow forecast page: does this take the results from your SWE forecast page and regress against some relationship for (forecasted) temperature to produce snowfall in inches? If so, these don't appear to line up....i.e. currently the Paradise 72 hr SWE forecast=0.97" (on average ~10-12" of snow) but the snow forecast shows 0. (The snow forecast button is also gone, but clicking the area where it should be still links, so perhaps this is broken).
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11-21-2016, 01:19 AM #22
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11-21-2016, 02:20 PM #23Registered User
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Fantastic work. I agree with Gunder, everything needed in one chart.
One wish...add Mt Bachelor to the available areas.
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11-21-2016, 06:35 PM #24Registered User
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Thanks for the feedback. I did reverse the order of the measured SWE vs the FX swe, hopefully that reduces the confusion there. I also redid the table as I thought it was hard to read.
I hope to eventually expand to a wider network, but right now it's just NWAC sites. I think SNOTEL would be the next logical move, but it's really work intensive to put all the parts together.
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11-21-2016, 07:46 PM #25
I find it very hard to read. Enough so that I have a hard time getting what it's supposed to show.
(others seem to be reacting well to it, so maybe it's just me...i'm no scientist)
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