Is the stock market going to tank?

**Cono Este** · 10-11-2022, 10:51 AM

Out of TSM. 5 pts on 1/2, 22 on balance.

Thanks pelosi.

**NakedShorts** · 10-12-2022, 03:52 PM

I thought 2008 was a fun learning environment. This will be even better. The politicians and academics do not even have enough knowledge to grasp the problems (they created) and we expect them to fix them.

**Toadman** · 10-12-2022, 05:03 PM

Originally Posted by NakedShorts

I thought 2008 was a fun learning environment. This will be even better. The politicians and academics do not even have enough knowledge to grasp the problems (they created) and we expect them to fix them.

They are all more in touch with WS than Main street. Their hubris is their achilles heel. That and they think their years in academia makes them think they know it all.

**BobMc** · 10-12-2022, 06:43 PM

I have an eight year timeline. I’m not going to sit on the sidelines nor try to catch a falling knife. I put money in as I get it. Generally I put it into things I already own, things I’ve already researched and still feel confident about. Although, I have taken a few new positions lately, notably F and ARCC.

Sold a $30 strike, Jan 20 call on MRO for $240 today. I’m in it $5.73/share, if crude falls hopefully I can buy it back and take the easy cash. Even if crude soars and I’m assigned I’ll be ok with the 465% increase in less than two and a half years. It only yields 1.1% so I’ve wanted out of it for a while, I could be wrong but I think I’ve milked most of the share price growth out. I’d rather move that $3200 into something yielding higher.

**summit** · 10-13-2022, 09:50 AM

Market Rollercoaster by the Red Hot Volatility Traders

You give me that funny feeling in my tummy
Ahhh shit, yeah, that's right, huh
Rollercoaster
Of Stocks
Say what?
Rollercoaster
Yeah (QQQ)
Oh, baby, you know what I'm talkin' about
Rollercoaster of stocks (market rollercoaster, child)
Oh, yeah, it's Rollercoaster time
Lovin' you is really wild
Oh, it′s just a volatile rollercoaster
Step right up and get your tickets!
Your price is like a Rollercoaster baby, baby
I wanna ride, yeah (awawawawawaw)
Your price is like a Rollercoaster baby
Baby I wanna ride, yeah!

(as predicted)

**Kevo** · 10-13-2022, 10:29 AM

Core CPI inflation isn't slowing. Negative real interest rates aren't controlling inflation. Who could have predicted this?

**liv2ski** · 10-13-2022, 11:36 AM

As rates go higher and higher will Biden get blamed like Jimmy Carter did? Shit, why not. He is already blamed for gas prices by half the country. And where is 3k on the S&P God Dammit!

**dschane** · 10-13-2022, 11:40 AM

Ah, on the equities side, it feels like were back in July 2020 again.

**byates1** · 10-13-2022, 08:47 PM

Heard someone predict no new ath for the indexes for the next 10 years today. Huh. Well, fuck it dude, I'm goin skiin'..

**BobMc** · 10-13-2022, 10:25 PM

No all time highs for 10 years sounds like some serious pessimism. Ski on.

Been thinking of moving off of 100 shares of XOM, watched it perk up before the bell and checked options, things were looking juicy. Ended up setting an order to sell a $125 strike, Jan 20 call for $130 while waiting to give Dantheman a ride back to my shop. It filled before we got back, and then started retreating.

I’m in the 100 $40.70/share, I liked the yield when I bought as they were paying me to hold. Now I’d rather move the money into a midstream or BDC.

If I get a chance to make a quick $50 on either of my option trades I’ll probably take it. Then take that money and put it into EPD or ARCC. Or, if assigned do the same, I can’t see I lose here.

**stalefish3169** · 10-14-2022, 10:20 AM

Cool. Cool. Cool.

https://twitter.com/MstarBenJohnson/...TOo-JySkQ&s=19

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

**4matic** · 10-14-2022, 10:42 AM

Took 15 years to make new high on nasdaq after 2000.

**byates1** · 10-14-2022, 11:05 AM

^ yep..

**4matic** · 10-14-2022, 11:13 AM

There are several reasons why stocks can still move higher over time without good fundamentals

1. A lot less publicly traded companies (supply and demand)

2. Stock buybacks continue to chip away at supply

3. 401k and IRA investment is the primary savings vehicle vs pensions 40 years ago.

2021 was a big year for IPO due to SPAC craze but most of those will go away through bankruptcy and delisting.

**Toadman** · 10-14-2022, 11:47 AM

Originally Posted by stalefish3169

Cool. Cool. Cool.

https://twitter.com/MstarBenJohnson/...TOo-JySkQ&s=19

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

Is 80/20 the new 60/40?

**Kevo** · 10-14-2022, 12:14 PM

Anyone ever follow the Hedgefundie's Excellent Adventure threads over at Bogleheads?

TLDR- A guy who allegedly works at a Hedge Fund came up with a 3x leveraged risk parity strategy and back tested it. It would have turned $100k into $10MM over a 20 year period.

The idea was to split the portfolios between 3x leveraged equity ETFs and 3x leveraged bond ETFs. When equities fall, bonds have historically been a safe haven. When bonds underperform, equities have usually outperformed.

The insane returns drew in otherwise risk averse Boglehead investors, but in the rising interest rate environment the Hedgefundie portfolios are down 80% or more.

**4matic** · 10-14-2022, 12:38 PM

Delete

**rod9301** · 10-14-2022, 01:31 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

There are several reasons why stocks can still move higher over time without good fundamentals

1. A lot less publicly traded companies (supply and demand)

2. Stock buybacks continue to chip away at supply

3. 401k and IRA investment is the primary savings vehicle vs pensions 40 years ago.

2021 was a big year for IPO due to SPAC craze but most of those will go away through bankruptcy and delisting.

Right, that's another way of saying, this thing 8 is different

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**rod9301** · 10-14-2022, 01:32 PM

Originally Posted by rod9301

Right, that's another way of saying, this thing 8 is different

Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

Sorry, this time is different

Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

**4matic** · 10-14-2022, 01:47 PM

Originally Posted by rod9301

Sorry, this time is different

Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

Clearly not what I said and typically deflective.

**Toadman** · 10-14-2022, 02:03 PM

Found this Twitter thread very interesting as I had heard zip about it on any of this on MSM. Maybe I'm just blind. Maybe it's all just hyperbole?

https://twitter.com/jordanschnyc/sta...tions-228.html

THREAD: The US government's new export controls are wreaking havoc on China's chip industry.

New rules around "US persons" are driving an "industry-wide decapitation."

**Kevo** · 10-14-2022, 04:12 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Wrong thread

Is there a better thread to discuss the misadventures of a particular investment strategy?

**4matic** · 10-14-2022, 04:28 PM

Originally Posted by Kevo

Is there a better thread to discuss the misadventures of a particular investment strategy?

I meant I posted a comment meant for another thread.

**Hopeless Sinner** · 10-14-2022, 07:42 PM

Originally Posted by Toadman

Found this Twitter thread very interesting as I had heard zip about it on any of this on MSM. Maybe I'm just blind. Maybe it's all just hyperbole?

"7.) Restricts the ability of U.S. persons to support the development, or production, of ICs at certain PRC-located semiconductor fabrication “facilities” without a license;"

https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file

**NakedShorts** · 10-14-2022, 09:48 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

There are several reasons why stocks can still move higher over time without good fundamentals

1. A lot less publicly traded companies (supply and demand)

2. Stock buybacks continue to chip away at supply

3. 401k and IRA investment is the primary savings vehicle vs pensions 40 years ago.

2021 was a big year for IPO due to SPAC craze but most of those will go away through bankruptcy and delisting.

#4 and the $50 Trillion with a T of "Assets" currently invested into bonds trapped in an inflationary + currency + energy + financial catastrophe death spiral that will have very much trouble squeezing into many many markets, at least efficiently....We are not here yet though. Watch Gold though it will tell is when the time is right. And Stocks, good ones will be much much higher. The money has nowhere else to go. Global stock equity is a fraction of the global debt cess debt pool.