Is the stock market going to tank?

[Bushwacka]

GME up 12% on “partnership” with FTX. Sound familiar?

the end game is block chain based security exchange so there is no more infinite liquidity.

My HODL and my overnight day trade just got better. First time GME earning call didnt cause a dip.

[El Chupacabra]

the end game is block chain based security exchange so there is no more infinite liquidity.

Endgame is about infinity stones, not infinity liquids.

[billyk]

Sorry… still not following. Maybe you have some links that explain it in detail? A flow chart to help me visualize? (Not sure what Q has to do with any of this, but I’m open to hearing about his role.)

Well, clearly someone needed it to be explained, although I suspect even that didn’t get through. But it brings up the point, if enough people make the same mistake, maybe the NDAQ stock moves with the index even though it is unrelated?

[Bushwacka]

ok my stock pic for early next week is APRN.

APRN fair market value should be at least 30 a share, it has 40 percent short interest, and the Max pain tomorrow is 5 dollars. Its currently sit at 7.92 AH on Thursday, and while nothing is 100 percent if this ticker finishes at 8 or above a run to 12-18 by tuesday afternoon is probable. If it finishes near 5 then just ignore this post.

Here is my current position (I have 14 other open slide trades) I post this one because it should be easy to entry and exit than my others. I was in early, but I will l 3x or 4x this position if APRN significantly beats max pain tomorrow at 9/9/22



Just FYI I am Hack and you could lose all and this is shortly held long position trade NOT an investment.

[JimmyCarter]

ok my stock pic for early next week is APRN.

APRN fair market value should be at least 30 a share.

This. Tell me how you’re determining this. It’s the biggest part of the whole thing and you just throw it out there with nothing behind it.

This is a company with a shit subscriber base that costs them $1.25 for every $1.00 of revenue they bring in but you think they should price at 4x revenue?

The company that couldn’t pull off easy to make fancy meals at a time when most people weren’t even allowed to go to restaurants?

[4matic]

Put call ratio and gamma convexity along with low float, high short interest and obv flow point to $30 fair value. Not to mention risk range fractals.

[m2711c]

[4matic]

In my personal investments, I thought the high in long interest rates would come with that first swing above 3%. Clearly wrong. I’m offsides on dollar strength too.

The economy we have right now is what the Fed has stated as their goal for years. 2%+ forward inflation and tame growth. There’s no need to go much further with hawkish rhetoric. We’ll see.

As long as we’re near the highs in long rates my positions work out over time even if rates don’t go down.

[4matic]

“Speak to any (very) large used car dealer and you will hear the same - an absolute vortex of deflation is coming to used car prices.

Manheim index just showed largest MoM drop in used car values since April 2020, but that's for August... it hasn't even really started yet.”

Thrown in lower gas and housing and inflation numbers will be crashing.

[summit]

I'd love the used market for cars to crash. I want a different vehicle than what I have, but I don't need a different vehicle. I'm absolutely not willing to pay current used nor new prices.

[yeahman]

I'd love the used market for cars to crash. I want a different vehicle than what I have, but I don't need a different vehicle. I'm absolutely not willing to pay current used nor new prices.

Same. Just backed out of a deal in fact. Been looking to upgrade my 2004 Tahoe and there are a lot more coming online lately, but people are still pricing 5k over value hoping to find a sucker who doesn't realize the tide is turning.

[SumJongGuy]

Word I'm getting from the supply chain folks at work is that the chip shortages and other parts are ramping back up. Fulfillment is starting to catch up. By mid 2023 everything "should" be mostly back to normal. Will all prices fall back to what they were? Highly unlikely, but the supply part of the elasticity of demand equation will be more favorable to the buyers setting the price again..

[Ted Striker]

As seen in a different thread, I'm half-assed shopping for a new car. BMW is still experiencing supply shortages to the point where they have entire "no production" weeks where they don't run the assembly line(s).

[Brock Landers]

Again full disclaimer I still have 100 shares of house money on BBBY and made ton of money on the run up, that I posted and predicted on this site. So I have a stake its like nothing compared to my networth.

How much did you make

[Bushwacka]

How much did you make

on the 100? lost 1800 dollars.....on the 900 I sold on that tuesday plus some other trading accounts I sold on monday over 25k.

the 100 will either go 50+ or go to zero. No reason to sell it though.

[Cono Este]

In my personal investments, I thought the high in long interest rates would come with that first swing above 3%. Clearly wrong. I’m offsides on dollar strength too.

The economy we have right now is what the Fed has stated as their goal for years. 2%+ forward inflation and tame growth. There’s no need to go much further with hawkish rhetoric. We’ll see.

As long as we’re near the highs in long rates my positions work out over time even if rates don’t go down.

I’m still waiting. I think rates will notch higher. We’ve only just gotten here. Another 6 months before I’d lock in a 10 yr.

Same for equities. We’re only 10 lashings into a 100 lash punishment.

[B:llyB:lly]

Well the stonk mahket is tanking thanks to the CPI print (was the market really surprised by this?) so I go to close out my position.
Surprise! There is a message that my account isn't available at the moment. I'm guessing I'll be allowed in after the PPT rescues enough important people?

[4matic]

Quarterly expiration this week. Gamma and all that convexity stuff

[Cono Este]

Well the stonk mahket is tanking thanks to the CPI print (was the market really surprised by this?) so I go to close out my position.
Surprise! There is a message that my account isn't available at the moment. I'm guessing I'll be allowed in after the PPT rescues enough important people?

Should have kept the floor traders around.

I expect all computers to explode by yrs end. Put your orders in now.

[pogs4ever]

inflation still going in the right direction at least, albeit stubborn.

had stalled out my DCA a bit so I could buy this dip, then back to regularly scheduled DCA. wish I could push more money in, but snow is about to start flying hopefully.

[Mazderati]

[Kevo]

inflation still going in the right direction at least, albeit stubborn.

had stalled out my DCA a bit so I could buy this dip, then back to regularly scheduled DCA. wish I could push more money in, but snow is about to start flying hopefully.

Core CPI (doesn't include food and energy) is not going in the right duration. It is up month over month and accelerating compared to August and July- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

The Fed primarily tracks core CPI, hence the market freaking out.

The Fed is continuing to run real rates at -6% and wondering why inflation keeps going up.

Currently, the FFR is 2.33%

I'd bet the fed raises interest rates 75 basis points this time around, which would put the FFR at 3.08% while inflation is running north of 8%. I don't think that'll get the job done.

[J. Barron DeJong]

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/stat...XFQMwy4Rc0jLHA

[4matic]

So if the Fed hammers away at a short term anomaly related to pandemic recovery it will be shooting itself in the foot. No surprise. Fed has been behind the economics for decades.

[4matic]

The June low was also in the week of a quarterly expiration. In fact, the low was made on Wednesday prior to expiration which would be conversely tomorrow.