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Thread: Ukraine
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08-10-2022, 09:45 AM #8951
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08-10-2022, 03:14 PM #8952
Ukraine
Pictures are out.
Burn Russia burn
https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1...WugyeTjhUl_g1A
https://twitter.com/RoseFle54723126/...WugyeTjhUl_g1A
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08-10-2022, 03:24 PM #8953
From those images I interpret ~6 Su-24 type strike bombers and ~2 Su-27 type fighters severely damaged or destroyed along with some support trucks and buildings.
Originally Posted by blurred
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08-10-2022, 03:25 PM #8954
Ukraine
1.6km from the blast.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/st...Ek5UXMhD5QNK0g
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08-10-2022, 03:35 PM #8955
I don't get what that is supposed to show... there would have to be a miss that hit nearby as that damage looks like >0.1psi maybe even 0.5psi. To generate that overpressure at 1 mile, that's a big-bada-boom, like 20-50 tons of explosives going off all at once, bigger than the biggest conventional bomb ever. You'd need to light off the entire bomb depot for the base to get that effect. You don't get it from several 330 pound precision missile warheads going off piece by piece. Or you just get it by one of the precision missiles going off target and hitting behind where POV of that footy.
Too much time studying nukes...Originally Posted by blurred
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08-10-2022, 03:42 PM #8956
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08-10-2022, 03:50 PM #8957
Special forces operation. No missiles
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...a-beach-blast/
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08-10-2022, 03:51 PM #8958
Russian tank with rubber instead of the reactive armor it’s supposed to have:
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...a2Y40kvBGLAhgw
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08-10-2022, 03:55 PM #8959
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08-10-2022, 04:23 PM #8960
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08-10-2022, 04:25 PM #8961"We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
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08-10-2022, 04:33 PM #8962
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08-10-2022, 04:34 PM #8963
In one of the after pictures you can see a plane on the right, on the runway. I find the 1 dead number hard to believe, but Russian reporting on this kind of thing is always a lie. Looks like Ukraine dropped a hell of a cigarette on the base.
To reach targets deep behind enemy lines, Ukraine has increasingly turned to partisans, often residents of Russian-occupied territories who are loyal to Ukraine, officials said. Such people have helped Ukraine’s military strike Russian bases and ammunition depots, Ukrainian officials say.
Others have carried out attacks themselves. Over the weekend, the Kremlin-installed mayor of the city of Kherson suddenly fell ill and had to be evacuated to Moscow, where there were reports that he was in a coma. Less than 24 hours later, the deputy head of a major town in the region was shot and killed at his home, a spokeswoman for the region said.
The senior Ukrainian official said that both instances were the work of local partisan forces, though his claim could not be independently verified.
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08-10-2022, 04:39 PM #8964
Yeah, that's my assumption as well, though hopefully a couple of them were around. It's hard to tell in the other, 'AI clarified' images whether things were strictly filtered or if someone overlaid the images somehow. The clarified versions may be a bit of a reach, though--crater shapes look less clear in those. Hopefully more news coming.
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08-10-2022, 04:57 PM #8965
There are unconfirmed reports of multiple explosions at Zyabrovka airbase in Belarus. The base was recently handed over to Russian forces.
If the Crimean base's fuel tanks exploded, and it looks like they did, that could explain the much larger blast radius. Arguably, destroying refueling infrastructure hurts the Russian war effort as much or more than the destroyed aircraft.
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08-10-2022, 05:52 PM #8966
Well if there really was a large enough explosion to damage those apartments like that at 1 mi, any plane within 750-1500 feet of the large explosion would have been damaged, and 400ft to 1000ft damaged beyond repair (rough back calculation for 2-4psi).
Again that takes the a sizable chunk of the bomb depot blowing up *at once*, some special specops demolition trick where they turn the fuel tank farm into the mother of all fuel air explosions, or a gargantuan earth shatteringly large BLEVE from the burning fuel farm.Originally Posted by blurred
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08-10-2022, 06:00 PM #8967
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08-10-2022, 06:08 PM #8968
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08-10-2022, 08:52 PM #8969
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08-10-2022, 11:49 PM #8970
It was designed in 1970 and in updated Service until 2012. Only abandoned because it was fairly costly to Service and nobody thought there would be another cold war Scenario. quite ironic, I know. It still does what it was designed to to fairly well ( as far as I've read). Especially against cold war machinery.
It's a war of the mind and we're armed to the teeth.
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08-11-2022, 02:45 AM #8971click here
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Thanks for these insights. Nothing like an airbase mysteriously blowing up.
One set of pictures showed 3 craters near the damaged planes, estimated at 20+ meters. This guy: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...878299651.html. 20m comment at bottom
This says a 2000lb bomb can make a 15 meter crater. Not big enough https://odin.tradoc.army.mil/mediawi...l-Purpose_Bomb
I claim no knowledge of bombs, but the forgoing suggests those craters were made by something bigger than fits on most missiles. Wiki says ATACMS has 500lb warhead. Ukraine's Neptune supposedly similar. Also bigger than I'd think SOF could sneak in with, though if they got in with a truck (3 trucks), a truck could carry something big enough. Perhaps something already stored there went boom, though that means three similar storages - most likely? Perhaps the soil is unusual and makes big craters. Perhaps the Russians are crafty and painted big craters for the satellites?
War sucks, but in the abstract, it sure is funny wondering what happened to the bad guys.
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08-11-2022, 08:24 AM #8972
Interesting travel warning from ukraine
https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/...1932429819907?It's a war of the mind and we're armed to the teeth.
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08-11-2022, 09:31 AM #8973
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08-11-2022, 10:02 AM #8974
Very interesting counterpoint:
"⚡️#Ukraine - #Novofedorivka, #Saky district, #Crimea - Russian airbase explosions. ...... We don't know the missile but we believe they fired from #Odessa Oblast." (ref @glosmeusec
) Okay, so I checked for missile magnetic anomaly signatures from Odesa. Found one. Mach 2.5."
https://mobile.twitter.com/rrichcord...69834215018496
Much nerding out in the comments. I'm not clear on how the magnetic data would distinguish a missile from, say, an airplane doing that same speed, but presumably the acceleration rate changes the how "sharp" the wave is?
All war is deception, though: maybe a little coordination to generate that signature to spread the idea that they have a new missile that can do this even though they used SOF with precise timers. And maybe the other way around.
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08-11-2022, 11:39 AM #8975click here
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Buried in the comments, he explains the physical principle. An explosion on the ground produces an acoustic wave that travels (up) through the atmosphere. When it vibrates the ionosphere, the movement of the ions produces an EM signature that can be detected by magnetometers. As for the airplane question, my take is it doesn't produce enough noise to be detected with his method, though theoretically it could be done with a sufficiently sensitive magnetometer.
As you suggest, given the crudeness of the method, deception would work well. Especially with a little social media work to boost awareness.
Another thought on missile vs airplane. If a sonic boom is part of the phenomenon here, the airplane's sonic energy will have a more horizontal component, while some missile trajectories will have a vertical component that presumably would have a greater effect on the ionosphere.
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