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09-10-2019, 05:23 PM #1301Registered User
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09-10-2019, 05:33 PM #1302Banned
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If I argued that the warming prior to 1950 occurred in a globally uniform spatially temporally way then I shouldn't have. The paper I have been using is focused on the spatial warming post 1950. I would have liked to see a graphic of the 1930's warming rate to see how it would have compared. The main point I was trying to make with the pre 1950 warming rate is that it is comparable to warming rates of recent decades based on global average temperature records.
My paper does not support that a period of warming is now affecting 90-98% of the planet for the first time. That paper is only looking at the past decade.
When you speak of a new open access database of climate records you are talking about PAGES right? Adding more proxies to the record doesn't really help us determine past warming rates due to the limited precision of proxies.
Can you make it clear which 4 papers you think affirm your position that for the first time in the past 2000 years the earth is warming spatio-temporally synchronously for the first time? Nuekom fits, my paper only looks at the 20th century, what else is there?
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09-10-2019, 05:36 PM #1303Banned
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09-10-2019, 05:39 PM #1304Banned
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Quick! Lock the thread! He admitted he misunderstood SOMETHING.
Let's call it a win and move on from this tire fire.
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09-10-2019, 05:45 PM #1305Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!
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09-10-2019, 09:54 PM #1306Banned
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It looks like they rely heavily on the Marcott et al 2013 paper which has been widely criticized. For starters, 80% of their data is from ocean proxies, not surface temperature proxies. This is the graph from that paper:
Here is a critique of it: http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/20...e-science.html
Key quote:
Q: What do paleotemperature reconstructions show about the temperature of the last 100 years?
A: Our global paleotemperature reconstruction includes a so-called “uptick” in temperatures during the 20th-century. However, in the paper we make the point that this particular feature is of shorter duration than the inherent smoothing in our statistical averaging procedure, and that it is based on only a few available paleo-reconstructions of the type we used. Thus, the 20th century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes, and therefore is not the basis of any of our conclusions.
This is the HadCRUT4 data that they cite and should be basing their 1850 to current temperatures on: https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/t...e/HadCRUT4.png
The cartoon is not representative of the HadCRUT data. It does not show the same level of warming as HadCRUT from 1910 - 1950. HadCRUT shows ~.6'C of warming from 1980 to current. The cartoon shows closer to 1'C.
They also exagerrate the IPCC "current path" projection. They appear to be using RCP8.5 as "current path." RCP8.5 is the extreme scenario, and viewed as borderline impossible. Their models haven't been reliable in the past, so I'm not holding my breath on their projections regardless.
Also keep in mind that 95% of the cartoon is based on proxy records, with the last 5% based on instrumental. Proxies show more of a smoothing of temperatures because they do not have the precision of the instrumental era.
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09-10-2019, 09:55 PM #1307Banned
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09-10-2019, 10:31 PM #1308
"Climate crisis is greatest ever threat to human rights, UN warns"
"Rights chief Michelle Bachelet highlights role in civil wars
"‘The world has never seen a threat to human rights of this scope’"
Climate change is not only having a devastating impact on the environments we live in, but also on respect for human rights globally, the UN has warned.
The UN rights chief, Michelle Bachelet, cited the civil wars sparked by a warming planet and the plight of indigenous people in an Amazon ravaged by wildfires and rampant deforestation.
She also denounced attacks on environmental activists, particularly in Latin America, and the abuse aimed at high-profile figures such as the teenage campaigner Greta Thunberg.
“The world has never seen a threat to human rights of this scope,” she told the UN human rights council in Geneva.
“The economies of all nations, the institutional, political, social and cultural fabric of every state, and the rights of all your people, and future generations, will be impacted” by climate change, she warned.
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09-11-2019, 01:30 AM #1309click here
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Not sure why this is so complicated. However, my cousin is afflicted with a similar mindset to ron's...
If your transmission is making weird noises, who do you ask for help? Grab a hammer and DIY it? Ask your grocer? A nuclear physicist?
A) None of those. You see a mechanic, specifically a mechanic specialized in transmissions. (If for some reason you want to DIY, you will still consult a manual written by experts)
So, why are you trying to discredit global warming (or a given research paper) using your metaphorical hammer? Trust the experts. It's what they are good at, and you are not.
Why is the expert concept so hard?10/01/2012 Site was upgraded to 300 baud.
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09-11-2019, 01:42 AM #1310click here
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If the doctor says you're bleeding out internally?
"Well gee doc, I can't afford to fix it now, and so I don't believe you anyway." Or "I don't see anything."
Doesn't make much sense.
The climate doctors say "you're bleeding out internally." Common sense says we oughta do something about that.
Seriously, why do people have such trouble with this?10/01/2012 Site was upgraded to 300 baud.
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09-11-2019, 05:35 AM #1311
the precautionary principle has no place in the land of hyperconsumption. "we will never apologize for our way of life."
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09-11-2019, 07:18 AM #1312
win-win! let's go to disneyland!
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09-11-2019, 07:29 AM #1313
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09-11-2019, 07:55 AM #1314Registered User
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I shouldn't keep getting sucked into this but Ron, by your own admission you don't have the skills to accurately interpret scientific papers. The sentence makes complete sense without your additional "with".
The English language is incredibly complex and words can have multiple meanings. You know what confidence means in its basic everyday context. Confidence levels of 5 sigma as referenced in the sentence mean something very specific.
There are others way smarter than me on this subject that can further expound on this but what I understand about a 5 sigma confidence is that by running the same exact experiment you would get the same results 3.5 million times. This is vastly different than saying something "with confidence".
I don't think you have delusions of grandeur regarding your ability to interpret scientific data, I think you have delusions of competence.
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09-11-2019, 11:35 AM #1315Registered User
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Ron is too polite when people shit on him and too diligent at responding to everything to be a legitimate climate nut. I'm going with paid astroturfer whose only purpose is to try to make it look like there's legitimate debate on the topic when it's clear the science is settled.
So Ron, again, ski pics, tits, or GTFO.
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09-11-2019, 11:43 AM #1316Banned
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09-11-2019, 11:52 AM #1317Banned
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You are beating me up about one sentence.... Obviously I now see that the sentence makes sense. At the time of reading it, my brain kind of shut off after the first six words "They said that confidence human activities" and told me a word was missing in there.
I don't rely on my interpretation of complex scientific data. I've gotten into the weeds with MutliVerse, but my positions are rooted in easily understood data that a 12 year old could understand.
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09-11-2019, 12:05 PM #1318Banned
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In Unprecedented Move, Head of Key Meteorological Organization Slams Climate Extremists
https://www.theepochtimes.com/in-unp...s_3076409.html
Quotes from Petteri Taalas, the secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), one of the founding organizations of the IPCC:
“Now we should stay calm and ponder what is really the solution to this problem. It is not going to be the end of the world."
“While climate skepticism has become less of an issue, now we are being challenged from the other side. Climate experts have been attacked by these people and they claim that we should be much more radical. They are doomsters and extremists. They make threats.”
“The IPCC reports have been read in a similar way to the Bible: you try to find certain pieces or sections from which you try to justify your extreme views. This resembles religious extremism.”
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09-11-2019, 12:14 PM #1319Banned
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09-11-2019, 12:18 PM #1320
Ron, where do you like to ride?
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09-11-2019, 12:27 PM #1321
More bullshit! In the article you link to, that has been spun by climate deniers, Petteri Taalas says “Now, we should stay calm and ponder what is really the solution to this problem,” Taalas said. “It is not going to be the end of the world. The world is just becoming more challenging. In parts of the globe, living conditions are becoming worse, but people have survived in harsh conditions.”
That is pretty different from "slamming climate alarmists."
"Following the publication of the preliminary results earlier this month, the World Meteorological Organisation secretary-general, Petteri Taalas, said July had “rewritten climate history, with dozens of new temperature records at local, national and global level”."
https://www.independent.co.uk/enviro...-a9061516.html
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09-11-2019, 12:34 PM #1322Banned
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I would agree that the title is a stretch, but its the quotes that matter.
So despite Taalas' quote that July had "rewritten climate history....", he is still saying that "It is not going to be the end of the world."
Does this one ring true for you at all?
“The IPCC reports have been read in a similar way to the Bible: you try to find certain pieces or sections from which you try to justify your extreme views. This resembles religious extremism.”
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09-11-2019, 12:52 PM #1323Registered User
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09-11-2019, 01:00 PM #1324Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!
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09-11-2019, 01:46 PM #1325
Taalas comment that it is not going to be the end of the world rings true. Of course it isn't going to be the end of the world. The planet doesn't need saving, as it will exist long after we are gone. People, civilizations, and most other species are at risk, however.
The planet (or climate) doesn't fall off a cliff at 2 degrees of warming. However, suffering, death, species extinction, economic ruin, civilization collapse, etc, will increase the warmer the planet gets. There is no red line above which certain death will occur, but keeping climate change to 1.5 degrees of warming is better than 2 degrees, 2 is better than 3, 3 is better than 4, etc. The warmer the planet gets, the more disruption, death, and chaos we will experience.
I guess it would be fair to say that for the people of the Bahamas who were killed by Hurricane Dorian, climate change did mean the end of the world for them.
The other garbage you posted was in a color and font I can't read on my computer thankfully.
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