Real Estate Crash thread

[Cono Este]

So I am out look for new houses here in St. Louis, and all i can say is wow! Buyers mkt. I love reading, "bring me an offer!" "free plasma!"

Im starting at 80% of ask, and many of them have been reduced allready. Quality stuff out there too, everyone just got done rehabing with their refi money. opps!

[Alek]

So I am out look for new houses here in St. Louis, and all i can say is wow! Buyers mkt. I love reading, "bring me an offer!" "free plasma!"

Wow, that is great! And then you EVEN get to live in St. Louis...

[Cono Este]

If you like bare handed catfish tourney's or nascar its the place to be.

[comish]

It seems like its falling everywhere except where I live, westside LA... I do think there is a LOT more bad news and things are just starting the downward slide. Countrywide saying that delinquencies were running higher on Alt-A loans than Subprime says this thing isn't contained to just subprime = bad credit borrowers. The Alt-A people are just starting to feel the pain. Wait another year or so and they will really be hurting. I'm just hoping it finally makes it to my neighborhood...

[Cono Este]

It seems like its falling everywhere except where I live, westside LA... I do think there is a LOT more bad news and things are just starting the downward slide. Countrywide saying that delinquencies were running higher on Alt-A loans than Subprime says this thing isn't contained to just subprime = bad credit borrowers. The Alt-A people are just starting to feel the pain. Wait another year or so and they will really be hurting. I'm just hoping it finally makes it to my neighborhood...

LA is a weird mkt, it was stagnate for alot of the ninties.

[skier666]

Rents in South Bay (Silicon Valley) have been increasing for the last 5 months. There's still not enough supply to meet the demand, and the job market is improving here. San Francisco is still crazy, although the pace has slowed a bit (according to stats). However, it should be interesting to see how the all new apartment high rises that are going online in the next couple of years on South of Market perform. To me, its getting way too saturated with the same looking condos near the Ball Park. There's no character to the neighborhood. Just condo after condo is being built. But hey, if they can build it and sell them, I guess that's their whole gameplan.

It seems that the most notable one, 1 Rincon Hill (the biggest addition to the skyline since I've lived here), is almost completely sold. They have more towers planned of 300 or so units each.

http://www.sfnewdevelopments.com/

[Cirquerider]

The house next door is in default. The lawn is unkept and long, the pool turned green and the county health department applied mosquito control. The woman who owned it bought it for $665,000 in 2003 with a first mortgage of $550,000. She then proceeded to take out an additional $330,000 in secondary mortgage debt putting the debt load at $880,000. She used the money to buy things like a Cadillac Escallade, 2-personal watercraft, top of the line appliances, TVs, exercise equipment and a bunch of landscaping. Meanwhile they lived like pigs and destroyed the inside of the house. Animals and careless living mean all the carpeting needs replaced, the floors need sealed and the place needs a lot of general updating. No short sale, the house is listed at $940,000 and will be a nuisance until foreclosure and auction is complete.

She sold most of her personal belongings and the appliances for pennies on the dollar this spring and moved out. Hell, she even sold her Temperpedic bed and motorized frame. Her final gift was to turn off all the power so the pool would go stagnent and the landscaping would die. She will lose the home and her initial down payment, but pocketed $330,000 in loans that will never be recovered and walked. Bitch! Its legal larceny enabled by lending policies and the assumption what goes up can never go down.

[comish]

Oh yeah, our building just changed hands and we got a nice letter yesterday informing us our rent is going up $200 / mo!?!?! We knew it was coming given that the building was on the market and the price they were asking wouldn't even make the place cash flow positive but it still hurts...

[rideit]

Market is actually rising in JH and Teton Valley...
Average home price in JH just went up from $880,000 to $1M.
Anything in town under $500k sells in a few hours.
Silly.

[runethechamp]

Rents in South Bay (Silicon Valley) have been increasing for the last 5 months. There's still not enough supply to meet the demand, and the job market is improving here. San Francisco is still crazy, although the pace has slowed a bit (according to stats). However, it should be interesting to see how the all new apartment high rises that are going online in the next couple of years on South of Market perform. To me, its getting way too saturated with the same looking condos near the Ball Park. There's no character to the neighborhood. Just condo after condo is being built. But hey, if they can build it and sell them, I guess that's their whole gameplan.

It seems that the most notable one, 1 Rincon Hill (the biggest addition to the skyline since I've lived here), is almost completely sold. They have more towers planned of 300 or so units each.

http://www.sfnewdevelopments.com/

Interesting to see that the rents are going up now. East Bay rents were very low compared to the house prices for a long time, and I think that was the tune all around the bay area. Our rent was downright cheap compared to what we pay in morgage now.

[skier666]

Our rent was downright cheap compared to what we pay in morgage now.

I'm in the same boat buddy! The Rental market is weird. Usually rents go up when housing prices rise because less people can afford to buy a house, and thus look at the rental market. However, the last couple of years have been strange due to the extremely low interest rates and the subprime, 0% down, all interest craze...which is now gone.

[Hutch]

She will lose the home and her initial down payment, but pocketed $330,000 in loans that will never be recovered and walked. Bitch! Its legal larceny enabled by lending policies and the assumption what goes up can never go down.

Why can't her creditors go after her for the deficiency? Because she will declare bankruptcy?

[Core Shot]

Jim Cramer the money god says just walk away from your house.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...62039224367008

its no big deal
just run away and default

"you made a bet and lost"
so just fold your cards!!

[Core Shot]

Cramer also says that when the 2 year teaser arms come time to reset soon (the 2/28 loans) there will be a 100% default rate!
I don't believe that, but I also can't believe he believes it.
What a pessimist. I hope he is wrong.

http://housingdoom.com/2007/07/30/cr...erwater-homes/

[meatdrink9]

The market is crazy out here. I'm sure my perception is skewed as I'm looking at very specific types of properties for investment purposes. If I pull aside a listing as being a good investment I either need to move on it immediately or it will be gone within the week (even If I've pulled 10 listings that day). I am buying houses for 60K though (and getting a commission back). But, the houses are generally beat and will require a lot of hard work

Anything under 200k in the Salt Lake Valley is an absolute feeding frenzy.

I've had some other properties sit though. Both over the 200K mark. They've had crazy numbers of showings, but for some reason haven't moved. Multi-units aren't selling for shit as rents haven't caught up with home prices yet. You can't make them flow right now (in SLC anyway).

[sfotex]

I've had some other properties sit though. Both over the 200K mark. They've had crazy numbers of showings, but for some reason haven't moved. Multi-units aren't selling for shit as rents haven't caught up with home prices yet. You can't make them flow right now (in SLC anyway).

I'm waiting for the 'right deal' to come my way, I think alot of people are doing the same thing. Prices aren't going anywhere fast, and if anything, they'll come down a tad. We're making offers 5~10% under the listing price and seeing what happens, there's lots of overpriced stuff out there, and some people still have the expectation that their house will sell with multiple bids withing 24 hours of hitting the market...

[Benny Profane]

Cramer also says that when the 2 year teaser arms come time to reset soon (the 2/28 loans) there will be a 100% default rate!
I don't believe that, but I also can't believe he believes it.
What a pessimist. I hope he is wrong.

http://housingdoom.com/2007/07/30/cr...erwater-homes/

Holy crap, people call me a doomsayer, and I was shocked and upset looking around that site.

Cramer just wants people to watch his show and buy stocks. I guess.

[Core Shot]

Holy crap, people call me a doomsayer, and I was shocked and upset looking around that site.

another good one is www.housingpanic.blogspot.com

[Core Shot]

Jim Cramer goes looses his mind:

This is what panic looks like.
I guess its too close to home since he used to work in fixed income funds.

"WE HAVE ARMAGEDDON"





You gotta watch the whole thing - he is like a crying little kid stomping his feet.

[Core Shot]

Western states went exotic with mortgages
But credit crunch means options are dwindling
By Laura Mandaro, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Aug 5, 2007


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Borrowers in California, Nevada, Hawaii and Florida face the harshest drought if banks cut off the flow of some popular but riskier mortgages.
These states surpassed the national average last year for payment-option adjustable rate mortgages, the type of home loans that allow the borrower to minimize their monthly payments so they don't even cover the interest on the loan, a review of mortgage data show.
California led the nation in originations of payment-option ARMs, with about 24% of all its refinanced and first mortgages falling into this category last year, according to data firm First American LoanPerformance.
These home loans, also termed negative amortization loans because they tack any deferred interest on to the back of the loan, represented about 17% of Nevada's total mortgages last year, followed by just under 15% for Hawaii and about 13% for Florida.
In contrast, payment-option ARMs made up 11% of all mortgages last year in the United States, estimates LoanPerformance, a unit of First American Corp.

"You've seen growth in the states with high home-price appreciation," said LoanPerformance spokesman Bob Visini.
The states with the lowest percentage of payment-option AMRs? Mississippi and Arkansas, where 0.6% and 1.3% of loans fell into this category.
After a fall-out in the subprime market, where lenders made loans to borrowers with poor credit history, banks are now cutting back on loans to better credit borrowers. Under the gun are loans that carried special features, like minimal income documentation requirements.
Some of the nation's largest lenders, including National City Corp. (NCC : National City Corporation
WFC32.81, -1.61, -4.7%) have started to clamp down on making new nontraditional mortgages amid the slumping housing market, leaving homebuyers with fewer options.
A broker at mortgage brokerage firm ACE Mortgage Funding LLC estimated Friday that 90% of mortgages that don't conform to standards set by Fannie Mae have disappeared in the last three days.
As one visual sign of banks' cooling to a variety of mortgages they had introduced over the years, the broker's morning loan rate sheet dropped to one page - versus 10 pages usually. The broker asked not to be identified. See full story.
Nevada leads interest-only
One hit with borrowers over the last few years was the interest-only loan, which allowed homebuyers to pay just interest for a fixed period of time. Interest-only mortgages made up about 22% of all U.S. loans last year, says LoanPerformance. Nevada outpaced the average in this category too, with 34% of its mortgages deemed interest-only; California stood at 32% and the District of Columbia 33%.
Interest-only and payment-option ARMs together made up one-third of the U.S. mortgage origination market last year.
The volume of these mortgages increased swiftly during the housing boom, particularly in states where fast-rising home prices made it harder for borrowers to cover mortgage payments - and easier to sell homes for a hefty gain.
In California, payment-option ARMs made up just 0.8% of all loans in 2003 before jumping to 7.5% in 2004 and more than 18% in 2005, says LoanPerformance.
It derives its data from a review of mortgages that wind up in mortgage-backed securities, or loans that make up over half the U.S. market.

[Core Shot]

Wow. Lots of lenders are revising credit and other restrictions,
but this one says:

NO MORE CONDO LOANS IN FLORIDA!

http://www.oomc.com/post/_marketing/.../phase7pg.html

[enlosandes]

Properties in North Tahoe/Truckee are not moving very fast and at a lesser price than 6-24 months ago.

[Benny Profane]

I just spent the day with a friend who is very smart and working for a very well known consulting firm. When he said "In one month, nobody will be able to get credit" of almost any kind, I rushed home and switched my 401k stuff into safety.

[4matic]

I just spent the day with a friend who is very smart and working for a very well known consulting firm. When he said "In one month, nobody will be able to get credit" of almost any kind, I rushed home and switched my 401k stuff into safety.

Sorry to hear that..since the S&P is back over 1500

What's smart guy saying now?

[woodstocksez]

What's smart guy saying now?

Probably the same thing, given what's apparently been happening recently: check out some of the info in the credit dying thread in the ski/snowboard forum. As to stocks, who knows what smart guy said (Benny didn't tell us) or may be saying.