Does social media overhype avy danger?

[skifishbum]

i used to finacially support our avvy center
shindlerpiste and i would donate wasatch powder skis
i used to donate a GUIDED fishing days to the silent auction fundraisers
cause you know i used to be a GUIDE
i quit cause this isn't the kind of unprofessional social media garbage i want at all in a forecast that my $$$ or time has help fund

[Kinnikinnick]

Its part.of the need to virtue signal. Social media makes it easy

What about All the I’m Radical signaling? That’s mostly what I see. I’m so rad look what I did! Followed by all the “you are so cool!” Replies


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[cmcrawfo]

If a bro shreds a gnarly line, and no one is around to document it... did it really happen ?

[Foggy_Goggles]

I loved the one where folks were following you until you went around a tree to start following them.

I laughed. That was predicated with "It's a big fucking forest! can you either give us some space or just go first!"

A super good friend just moved back to town. He reminded me of a story when we were up at the pass and a family rolled up and just dumped there garbage in the parking lot. Apparently, I was fairly adamant that they pick up all the garbage and return down the hill to Denver as they were not welcome. I don't have it in me anymore but that place could use some localism and regulation. The locals kinda dont go there anymore.

[PNWbrit]

Ah, so you’ve seen some Amar posts, I take it. Welcome.

I laughed.

[Norseman]

First thought, too, ha.

[Mofro261]

If a bro shreds a gnarly line, and no one is around to document it... did it really happen ?

Look, this meadow isnt going to skip itself.

[cat in january]

Best advice I have heard came from a guide who had all the patches. He said all my observations in the field are to look for reasons to increase the forecasted risk, I never use observations to lower the forecast.

I don't envy the work of forecasting as crmcawfo said a low probability high consequence natural event over such large areas. Guy in Utah with the manbun is just weird.

What I find confusing and I think others do too is how the people lost to avalanches has not seen the increases you would expect due to large increase in both users and how people get after it so soon after it snows.

The only forecast in the Eastern US is undergoing a significant change from micro forecasting 2 ravines for ice climbers to forecasting all of the presidentials.

[mall walker]

Everything on social media is overhyped. Also there is a type of personality (found in great abundance on reddit, among other places) that takes enormous pleasure in killjoy safety virtue signaling, like the weekly "PSA: wear a fucking helmet!" type posts you see in any decently sized climbing forum. All that said, it's probably "better" as in "will result in fewer deaths" to have being avy-smart become cool, and I certainly appreciate any conditions related beta I can get, and I get it wherever I can (and am happy to share it as well, usually just here though).

[snoqpass]

It was more like TR of what I skied one day>douched out by the time I got there the next day>conversation with acquaintance from the city that I didn't even know skied "Yeah, someone posted on TGR that this was awesome last night so I rallied by friends, we left boulder at 5am and here we are!!!', "Oh...that was me...ooops..."

That was before BC skiing was even cool.

Reminds me of a local “guide” an his buddy’s that skied a lower elevation peak around here that rarely gets enough snow to ski. A couple days after a trip report on TAY there’s an article in the local paper about their rare descent of said peak, yes they called the paper to do an article on them which I think it’s more that guides seem to need to publish everything the validate their careers

[AK47bp]

If social media can overhype a Reuben from The Cheesecake Factory my guess is it can overhype anything and everything.

[Buster Highmen]

Reminds me of a local “guide” an his buddy’s that skied a lower elevation peak around here that rarely gets enough snow to ski. A couple days after a trip report on TAY there’s an article in the local paper about their first descent of said peak, yes they called the paper to do an article on them which I think it’s more that guides seem to need to publish everything the validate their careers

>>Si(gh)<<

[toast2266]

For the info coming from the avy forecasters, it seems like there's a bit of a disconnect as to the intended audience. The over-the-top social media posts, and put-the-fear-of-god-into-you type posts are probably mostly intended for the 20 year old joey who just bought a used touring setup with Dukes from the 2nd hand store, and is gonna go get rad in the "backcountry." He's watched a million web edits of pros skiing perfect pow, and joey wants to get rad. Intelligent, rationale consideration of the risks probably isn't going to happen, but if avy forecasters can at least get a few doom-and-gloom type posts into Joey's feed, then maybe he'll be ever so slightly more conservative in how he approaches his quest for radness. Same goes for the over the top social media / reddit / whatever posts. People who know what they're doing probably aren't basing their decisions on those posts. But hopefully it'll give some pause to the people who don't know what they're doing.

And I'm pretty ok with all of that. One area I ski regularly traverses under a steep chute. And 10 years ago, some dipshit booted up to the top of the chute and dropped in above a bunch of people. Kicked off a slide and killed both himself and another guy. These days, it's pretty rare that I see anyone ski that chute, especially when avy danger is elevated at all. I'd like to think that's at least in part due to the regular onslaught of information meant to scare people.

[snoqpass]

[QUOTE=Buster Highmen;5532383]>>Si(gh)
“ They met up at Starbucks “
http://www.valleyrecord.com/news/ski...ited-ski-trip/

[skiitsbetter]

I feel like safe travel in avalanche terrain starts at home with picking an objective that can reasonably be completed given the information that you have, instead of one where you are looking for reasons not to complete it. Info about shooting cracks or whumphing is helpful. Just don't write a novel about how you ignored various red flags and human factors just to get to the point where you finally turned around. I'll take people's shit pit or hand shear results with a grain of salt, but people still can't recognize the difference between scoured and loaded, a deep instability, and a storm one.

[PNWbrit]

The only forecast in the Eastern US is undergoing a significant change from micro forecasting 2 ravines for ice climbers to forecasting all of the presidentials.

Likelihood of sunglasses loss is moderate at or below treeline on all aspects.

[I've seen black diamonds!]

The only forecast in the Eastern US is undergoing a significant change from micro forecasting 2 ravines for ice climbers to forecasting all of the presidentials.

Interesting. I always puzzled at the decision not to include Gulf of Slides. I mean, isn't it named after all the slides triggered by Rog over the years?

[old goat]

For the info coming from the avy forecasters, it seems like there's a bit of a disconnect as to the intended audience. The over-the-top social media posts, and put-the-fear-of-god-into-you type posts are probably mostly intended for the 20 year old joey who just bought a used touring setup with Dukes from the 2nd hand store, and is gonna go get rad in the "backcountry." He's watched a million web edits of pros skiing perfect pow, and joey wants to get rad. Intelligent, rationale consideration of the risks probably isn't going to happen, but if avy forecasters can at least get a few doom-and-gloom type posts into Joey's feed, then maybe he'll be ever so slightly more conservative in how he approaches his quest for radness. Same goes for the over the top social media / reddit / whatever posts. People who know what they're doing probably aren't basing their decisions on those posts. But hopefully it'll give some pause to the people who don't know what they're doing.

And I'm pretty ok with all of that. One area I ski regularly traverses under a steep chute. And 10 years ago, some dipshit booted up to the top of the chute and dropped in above a bunch of people. Kicked off a slide and killed both himself and another guy. These days, it's pretty rare that I see anyone ski that chute, especially when avy danger is elevated at all. I'd like to think that's at least in part due to the regular onslaught of information meant to scare people.

What's the difference between a joey and a jerry?

[doebedoe]

What's the difference between a joey and a jerry?

Joey's try to establish their radness by shitting on jerry. Jerry don't even care.


As many others have alluded to: I think a lot of the answer here lies in what we view as a avy forecasters / observers mission. If their mission is simply to relay lots of information to help us make decisions, then yeah, probably there is some overhype. If their mission is to reduce avalanche deaths, overhype is likely a useful stratedgy.

[plugboots]

I could only take about 5 seconds of that SFB posted video. WTF.

Anyway, on 2/25/18 2 kids were killed near where I spend a lot of time. I want to know what type of report would have saved their lives.

Some info:
~~~~~
Avalanche safety gear carried by party: Both carried transceivers, shovels, probes. Subject 1 had an ice axe. Subject 2 had an ABS airbag backpack that was not deployed.
Avalanche Training and Experience: Subject 1 had taken an AIARE Avalanche Level 1 course the previous year. Subject 2 had taken two avalanche awareness classes.
~~~~~
So afterwards it was discovered that the avie report, (high danger level), was given to them verbally, through texts, and was viewed on one of their computers, and yet they still chose poorly.

So I guess, I want the IG, FB, whatever post that would have reached them, and cause them to not hike in the area that killed them.

[Buke]

Ah, so you’ve seen some Amar posts, I take it. Welcome.

Funny, that's the first thing that came to mind while reading OP's post. Although, I like his well documented assessments. Take what's good, ignore the rest.

Kind of on this same topic, just this morning I started the process of re-listening to "Slide: The Avalanche Podcast". S1:E1 is kind of all about taking about what your seeing. Maybe these social media reports are just people doing that in a different forum than on the skin track. That's not really a bad thing.

[Name Redacted]

I want to know what type of report would have saved their lives.

It isn't the report that would have saved them, it can only do so much.

I know of one instance where some guys hosted an event where the local avy forecaster actually gave a lecture about the avalanche report at a fundraiser for the CAIC the night before. The guys who contacted him to come and put on the event were killed the very next day in a slide on the exact aspect, by the exact avalanche problem that he was speaking about only 12 hours before. One guy in the group was a guide, at least a few others had at least some avalanche education and experience in the field. They even had a safety meeting the morning of their tour and discussed the avalanche report which they printed out and distributed to about 20 people the day of before breaking into separate groups to go tour around. For some reason, these guys went directly out to an aspect that the report had warned about and skinned across it. They triggered a large avalanche that killed 5 out of 6 of them. Very sad but still blows my mind.

https://avalanche.state.co.us/caic/a...=505&accfm=inv

[PNWbrit]

So I guess, I want the IG, FB, whatever post that would have reached them, and cause them to not hike in the area that killed them.

Or the snowmobiler who was killed that same day on the other side of the pass. The two kids was particularly tragic and exasperating though.

[Bunion 2020]

Two Bellevue teenagers who went missing near the Summit at Snoqualmie were found dead Monday morning, the King County Sheriff’s Office said.

The male teens, ages 17 and 18, were killed in an avalanche, said sheriff’s spokesman Sgt. Ryan Abbott. The pair went missing Sunday amid heavy snowfall and high avalanche danger near a backwoods area of Alpental-Snow Lake area.

The teens were supposed to return Sunday night. When they didn’t come home, their parents called 911 around 9 p.m., Abbott said.

Search-and-rescue crews were unable to search for the pair Sunday night because of the avalanche danger, he said. The search was launched around 8 a.m. Monday, using the GPS from one of the victim’s cellphones to find their general location.

Their bodies were found between 11 and 11:30 a.m., Abbott said.

Both teens were wearing avalanche beacons, he said. Their names have not been released.

The pass has received about 25 inches of snow in the past three days.


The Northwest Avalanche Center (NWAC) issued an avalanche warning over the weekend for backcountry travelers. At Snoqualmie Pass, the organization forecast high avalanche risk and recommended against traveling in avalanche terrain as heavy snow fell.

The organization warned against traveling on steep slopes, because layers of cohesive snow were sitting on a weak layer and were liable to slide in human-triggered or natural avalanches.

“Expect widespread avalanches in the new snow including many natural avalanches. Many of these could be big enough to kill you,” the organization warned in its Sunday forecast.

I don't know how much more clear it can be than that. When I was 17 or 18 I didn't think things like that were directed at me. Therein lies at least some of the problem.

[toast2266]

There's the people that are (at least to some degree) knowledgeable, but yet choose to ignore that knowledge and/or make incredibly terrible decisions. Social media posts seem like they're more effective against the people that aren't really knowledgeable at all, and aren't even really aware that the decisions they're making are terrible. Ignorance is bliss until it kills you and everyone around you.