Real Estate Crash thread

[summit]

Seems like the local governments are just like Vail resorts. Nobody gives a shit about the community of mostly low wage locals living in a mountain town. Who cares if tall tee bros get forced out of summit and have to drive from Kremling to get to thier shitty lifty of restaurant job? So long as people are willing to move from Kansas and Texas to do those jobs and live in squalor 3 bros to a bedroom 60 miles away, the resort and real estate business churn money.

the local gov't is killing it with subsidized housing, we are the standard the role model for modern gov't housing projects, the only problem with all those tax dollars you still have to pay 1,200.00 for a one bedroom subsized goverment funded apartment, WTF?

Kevo and Fast

$1200 for a 1br is 15% cheaper than the average price in Denver and 20-30% cheaper than the unsubsidized price in Summit... exactly how cheap should it be for people to live in an extremely highly desirable high quality of life location while working entry level no/low skill jobs? Did society decide that living in primo-land should also include having your very own place if your job is one that can be replaced by most any 18 y/o moving up? When did we decide that should be the case even if one is paying college debt on a degree you aren't using? Who decided that?

Living in the mountains has always been about tradeoffs... when did that stop including roommates or not living on the hill or right by you favorite bar or having to choose between one more round at the bar vs a blunt?

About 12 years ago I was doing better than OK making about $13/hr (the equivalent of, it was actually $8/hr with guaranteed OT) in a year-round low-skill job that allowed me to rent a sweet $900/mo 1br (searched hard) instead of splitting a place again. Sure, I picked up some extra shifts plus some hours at the skis shop ($10.50/hr, but really for shop form), owned a beater Honda with no payments, lived cheap and had no student debt... all that helped out and I actually started saving money.

If today I had student debt, a car payment, and a $12/hr job, yea I don't think I could make a good go of it up here without doing the roommate thing... certainly not my own $1200/mo subsidized place. But I wouldn't be complaining that I was owed my own place on the taxpayers dime either!

Yea those bros will keep moving from KS for the season and toughing it out and most leave, some figure out a way to make it work. I heard the same thing in Whistler, the locals hated the AU/NZ/UK kids willing to come work a season and leave with less $ than they started with, consequently driving up rates.

So who gets to decide who is core enough for subsidized housing? How cheap should it be? It seems every bro who makes it past 1 season feels entitled to their own 1br 1 block off main street and it should cost $700/mo. Well, I want a winnning lotto ticket too! My solution is as always, if you are going to do community subsidized housing, it should target specific long term skilled worker families that benefit and form the long term community core: skilled laborers, teachers, nurses, managers, paramedics, cops, social workers, engineers, water treatment operators, etc so that they don't all leave the moment they cease to be a DINK family... BUT NOT seasonal ticket scanners and first year ski instructors.

I think it should be totally upon the corporation that hires entry level seasonal workers to decide if they would rather pay a living wage that attracts enough applicants and keeps them housed based on market prices (my preference)... or build and maintain company-town style employee housing that lets them keep workers housed while paying minimum wage in a high cost area. But the corporations should stop demanding that the cabinetry carpenters, teachers, nurses, and water treatment operators subsidize (via county taxes) the corporation's subversively low wages by kicking in for housing for underpaid corporate seasonal workers.

That might be cold, but pulling from the community coffers to build housing for minimum wage workers just enables the practice of Vail (etc) continuing to underpay the true market value of their employees, even if unskilled!

And calling subsidized 1200$ 1br condos in "paradise" insufficiently subsidized is laughable and not going to help the problem.

[liv2ski]

you still have to pay 1,200.00 for a one bedroom subsized goverment funded apartment, WTF?

Housing costs are crazy. As a young man, about 35 years ago, my apartment was $400 a month (1 bedroom) and I made $22k a year. So with housing at $1,200 I equate that to making $66k a year. I guess there are a few 23 year olds doing that, but I doubt if most are. Hence why so many people have room mates to make ends meet.

[glademaster]

Let's get granular and talk about $/sf too. I pay about $3/sf/month to commute 60 miles a day. Needless to say, after about a year here, I am beyond ready to get the fuck out of Colorado. Fuck this state. It will be a glorious day when I can move my ass back out of this place.

And for the record, I am in a free market rental property. I make around $50k/year, but I can't afford any of the "affordable housing" in my community. "Affordable" 1 bedrooms rent for $1600-1700 a month plus utilities and dues. The mountain west needs more development friendly land use codes and more free market development. Affordable/deed restricted housing isn't a solution.

[hatchgreenchile]

...
That might be cold, but pulling from the community coffers to build housing for minimum wage workers just enables the practice of Vail (etc) continuing to underpay the true market value of their employees, even if unskilled!
....

+1 on the entire post - nailed it.

[Name Redacted]

Kevo and Fast

$1200 for a 1br is 15% cheaper than the average price in Denver and 20-30% cheaper than the unsubsidized price in Summit... exactly how cheap should it be for people to live in an extremely highly desirable high quality of life location while working entry level no/low skill jobs? Did society decide that living in primo-land should also include having your very own place if your job is one that can be replaced by most any 18 y/o moving up? When did we decide that should be the case even if one is paying college debt on a degree you aren't using? Who decided that?

Living in the mountains has always been about tradeoffs... when did that stop including roommates or not living on the hill or right by you favorite bar or having to choose between one more round at the bar vs a blunt?

About 12 years ago I was doing better than OK making about $13/hr (the equivalent of, it was actually $8/hr with guaranteed OT) in a year-round low-skill job that allowed me to rent a sweet $900/mo 1br (searched hard) instead of splitting a place again. Sure, I picked up some extra shifts plus some hours at the skis shop ($10.50/hr, but really for shop form), owned a beater Honda with no payments, lived cheap and had no student debt... all that helped out and I actually started saving money.

If today I had student debt, a car payment, and a $12/hr job, yea I don't think I could make a good go of it up here without doing the roommate thing... certainly not my own $1200/mo subsidized place. But I wouldn't be complaining that I was owed my own place on the taxpayers dime either!

Yea those bros will keep moving from KS for the season and toughing it out and most leave, some figure out a way to make it work. I heard the same thing in Whistler, the locals hated the AU/NZ/UK kids willing to come work a season and leave with less $ than they started with, consequently driving up rates.

So who gets to decide who is core enough for subsidized housing? How cheap should it be? It seems every bro who makes it past 1 season feels entitled to their own 1br 1 block off main street and it should cost $700/mo. Well, I want a winnning lotto ticket too! My solution is as always, if you are going to do community subsidized housing, it should target specific long term skilled worker families that benefit and form the long term community core: skilled laborers, teachers, nurses, managers, paramedics, cops, social workers, engineers, water treatment operators, etc so that they don't all leave the moment they cease to be a DINK family... BUT NOT seasonal ticket scanners and first year ski instructors.

I think it should be totally upon the corporation that hires entry level seasonal workers to decide if they would rather pay a living wage that attracts enough applicants and keeps them housed based on market prices (my preference)... or build and maintain company-town style employee housing that lets them keep workers housed while paying minimum wage in a high cost area. But the corporations should stop demanding that the cabinetry carpenters, teachers, nurses, and water treatment operators subsidize (via county taxes) the corporation's subversively low wages by kicking in for housing for underpaid corporate seasonal workers.

That might be cold, but pulling from the community coffers to build housing for minimum wage workers just enables the practice of Vail (etc) continuing to underpay the true market value of their employees, even if unskilled!

And calling subsidized 1200$ 1br condos in "paradise" insufficiently subsidized is laughable and not going to help the problem.

AGREED! I've had this conversation with so many locals and the only people that are for these subsidized housing are people who have only been here a few years and complain about not being able to own a home like that's some kind of right. I lived here 18 years before I bought one, and that was during a market crash.

I also live on Ptarmigan in a Aframe with no running water, and a Porto Potty for $200 a month. Lived in a frat house with 6 other dudes for $450 a month (in the 90's), Summit Cove with another couple in a 2 br apt for $750 a month, Keystone Employee housing for $500 a month (they were getting this from 4 people in a 2 br unit! $2K a month from an apt in Sunrise! WTF?!?!) Live on Zuma road in the summer in a truck and a tent.

"Affordable" housing in the Wellington was going for $450K deed restricted townhome when we bought our place for less. That's bullshit. Can only appreciate at 3% a year?

I'm OK with county encouraging high density, affordable housing in the proper areas. But stuff like deed restricted, single family homes, are bullshit. Also, VR needs to do a better job housing their employees. They aren't even allowing them to have parking spots for their cars right now! I'm thinking about renting out spots in my drive way for $150 a month.

[/coffeerant]

[goldenboy]

If you want to start talking about sq ft prices, start talking about build costs in the mountains. I don't know what it is elsewhere, but it's $300 sq ft for contractor grade materials and a simple house around here. Pretty sure it's a whole lot less in other parts of the country.

[WTF is dat]

The mountain west needs more development friendly land use codes and more free market development. Affordable/deed restricted housing isn't a solution.

This opinion is wildly unpopular but the fact of the matter is that Breck/ Summit County / CB need to encourage A LOT more density. It is simple supply and demand. Build a bunch of shitty apartments and at least demand will go down, somewhat. The current situation is untenable.

Obviously the people who want to keep summit county as their own personal playground will object to this, but having people living in squalor in alma and kremmling is ridiculous. Build apartments near key areas / bus stops and at least more people will be able to live closer to where they work. I don’t think having people 2 or 3 to a bedroom just to barely make rent is acceptable.


This same thing can be said for towns like Jackson hole, boulder etc. This NIMBYISM and anti growth mentality has turned all of these towns into bastions for the rich. It is wonderful for your property values if you already own, but seriously fucks over anyone who isn’t upper class.

[AdironRider]

Bullshit. It's a commuter town where the worker bees have to endure serious compromises in quality of life like driving the pass 2x a day, living 60 miles from a "legitimate" hospital (more like 300 miles), and if you're lucky, you can find an SFR on less than an acre, with no trees, and a clear view of every neighbor within 8 miles for $500-600k. Keep drinking that Koolaid.

I would move to Driggs if I never had to work again, was bringing my own harem, and could afford heli time to go down to SLC for medical reasons.

I think you are correct on right on the views in driggs, there's a whole lot of track homes in front of that peekaboo Teton view.

However, I sure wish my place in Victor, which typically has higher home values for the commuter aspect, was 500k. 3-400k seems to be the max here for most properties in the valley outside of Alta and Teton Springs.

And the medical thing? It's not the Mayo clinic but until you reach old age our facilities seem adequate. If you are that old Driggs and Jackson probably aren't your cup o tea anyways.

But what grinds my gears the most is the bitching about the commute thing. 30 mins to an hour is part for the course pretty much anywhere in suburbia, idling in traffic to go 10 miles to the a Walmart or the office complex you work in. I'd take the pass any day of the week, and I get a couple extra pow holidays a year when it closes. The only reason people complain about this is they feel entitled to live in Jackson for Victor prices. Such is life.

I rented a place in East Jackson prior to buying in Victor. It took me longer to get to the village living there than it does now. (Admittantly right at the bottom of the pass, so as close as it gets on the sunny side).

But if someone is to take something from your rant, definitely bring the harem.

[Benny Profane]

This opinion is wildly unpopular but the fact of the matter is that Breck/ Summit County / CB need to encourage A LOT more density. It is simple supply and demand. Build a bunch of shitty apartments and at least demand will go down, somewhat. The current situation is untenable.

Obviously the people who want to keep summit county as their own personal playground will object to this, but having people living in squalor in alma and kremmling is ridiculous. Build apartments near key areas / bus stops and at least more people will be able to live closer to where they work. I don’t think having people 2 or 3 to a bedroom just to barely make rent is acceptable.


This same thing can be said for towns like Jackson hole, boulder etc. This NIMBYISM and anti growth mentality has turned all of these towns into bastions for the rich. It is wonderful for your property values if you already own, but seriously fucks over anyone who isn’t upper class.

Boy, you people don't get it. The builders, or, the "free market" could give a fuck about dirtbags. They aren't in the business of making the middle class happy. Or the working class. They are there to make money. And a whole lot more money is to be made building two week a year MacMansions, and quarter million "fractional share lifestyle choices". Why would they bother with you? Well, only if the government forced them to, but that's socialistic tyranny, right?

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[summit]

This opinion is wildly unpopular but the fact of the matter is that Breck/ Summit County / CB need to encourage A LOT more density. It is simple supply and demand. Build a bunch of shitty apartments and at least demand will go down, somewhat. The current situation is untenable.

Obviously the people who want to keep summit county as their own personal playground will object to this, but having people living in squalor in alma and kremmling is ridiculous. Build apartments near key areas / bus stops and at least more people will be able to live closer to where they work. I don’t think having people 2 or 3 to a bedroom just to barely make rent is acceptable.


This same thing can be said for towns like Jackson hole, boulder etc. This NIMBYISM and anti growth mentality has turned all of these towns into bastions for the rich.

C'mon dude... you can find your own room in Wildernest, Dillon Valley, or the Cove for $600-1000/mo.
You can find a place off Ute Pass, Heeney, BVA and pay 500-700/room or get your own 1br place for $1000.
You can split a 2br apt in Kremmling and pay $425/room or have your own place for $700/mo.

3 people to a bedroom? Even Vail pays enough that people can afford better than that if they aren't idiots.

Yea there are plenty of people working $10/hr entry level jobs while trying to pay for their car and their student loans... well, they can choose whatever sacrifices they want including living 3 to a bedroom if that is what they choose, but why should the community bend over backwards to accommodate those decisions and the ski corps that want to keep paying them $10/hr?

The mountains is about the awesomeness your get to experience in exchange for other sacrifices. It is totally reasonable to expect to pay 30-40% of your gross income to housing in a mountain resort community. If you party too hard or have too much debt to afford that, then up your earning potential (that might mean working at KFC for $12.50/hr instead of scanning tickets for $9.30/hr) or move somewhere cheaper.

So your solution is to what... build a bunch of highrise apartment complexes full of efficiency studios? Why should that be done? Who says that is the best way to use real estate? Will it really be better with the super high cost of building? Should a mountain community have a buildout limit? Is it when you have to start filling in wetlands, hillsides, and killing off open space?

[WTF is dat]

C'mon dude... you can find your own room in Wildernest, Dillon Valley, or the Cove for $600-1000/mo.
You can find a place off Ute Pass, Heeney, BVA and pay 500-700/room or get your own 1br place for $1000.
You can split a 2br apt in Kremmling and pay $425/room or have your own place for $700/mo.

3 people to a bedroom? Even Vail pays enough that people can afford better than that if they aren't idiots.

Yea there are plenty of people working $10/hr entry level jobs while trying to pay for their car and their student loans... well, they can choose whatever sacrifices they want including living 3 to a bedroom if that is what they choose, but why should the community bend over backwards to accommodate those decisions and the ski corps that want to keep paying them $10/hr?

The mountains is about the awesomeness your get to experience in exchange for other sacrifices. It is totally reasonable to expect to pay 30-40% of your gross income to housing in a mountain resort community. If you party too hard or have too much debt to afford that, then up your earning potential or move somewhere cheaper.

So your solution is to what... build a bunch of highrise apartment complexes full of efficiency studios? Why should that be done? Who says that is the best way to use real estate? Will it really be better with the super high cost of building?

You can get a room in summit county for $600?! This is news to me. That’s cheaper than Denver.

It’s simple supply and demand, more housing stock = lower demand, which = lower prices. I am not advocating for high rise buildings like you claim, but a few more apartment complexes in smart locations (close to public transit, walkable, etc) would provide a benefit to the community.

[glademaster]

If you want to start talking about sq ft prices, start talking about build costs in the mountains. I don't know what it is elsewhere, but it's $300 sq ft for contractor grade materials and a simple house around here. Pretty sure it's a whole lot less in other parts of the country.

I work on the regulatory side of the development community on the other side of the Elks from you, I'm familiar with construction costs in the mountains, and the fact that there is a lot more driving them up than the simple cost of materials and labor.

I also want to point out that Benny did a great show of displaying his ignorance of development economics below.

[summit]

You can get a room in summit county for $600?! This is news to me. That’s cheaper than Denver.

Fortune favors the bold. Go look at craiglist. There is a $600 br in wildernest. Usually the price is 750-900 (that's why I gave a range) for advertised places. There are places below market if you know people who know you aren't a party hound bro brah who is late on rent and trashes the place.

My bro/sis were able to get a nice 2br in keystone for $1700, because they were reliable with good references and community connections. You can easily pay $1700 for a run down 2br in Dillon Valley. ($1700 is avg for Denver 2br apt).

Next we can talk about how people handicap themselves by getting pets and then complain that nobody wants to rent to them a place cheap for 5 months with their untrained 60# hell hound?

It is a fucking hard to make it up here, and the way you do it is to set up for success, sacrifice, and connect within the community... there are a lot of legitimate beefs... but are also a huge number of entitled whiners who are saddled by their own poor decisions.

It’s simple supply and demand, more housing stock = lower demand, which = lower prices. I am not advocating for high rise buildings like you claim, but a few more apartment complexes in smart locations (close to public transit, walkable, etc) would provide a benefit to the community.

They are building 500 beds in West Keystone... subsidized rentals (mostly guaranteed to Vail), deed restricted, and a few open market... Vail donated the land, but it is county taxes that are paying for the contruction

Then you have Breck/County that magically rezoned an agricultural lot up a back road nowhere near anything so they can build deed restricted apartments in a neighborhood of dispersed high end single family homes (the neighbors are pissed)

[hatchgreenchile]

I am not advocating for high rise buildings like you claim, but a few more apartment complexes in smart locations (close to public transit, walkable, etc) would provide a benefit to the community.

It will fit in nicely with Whole Foods and an outlet mall.

[WTF is dat]

It will fit in nicely with Whole Foods and an outlet mall.

The sad thing is I feel like the cat is already out of the bag for summit county. Not sure when exactly it happened but the past few seasons whenever I am in summit county it just feels like a Denver suburb to me. A suburb that happens to be in the mountains and have skiing in close proximity.

[hatchgreenchile]

The sad thing is I feel like the cat is already out of the bag for summit county. Not sure when exactly it happened but the past few seasons whenever I am in summit county it just feels like a Denver suburb to me. A suburb that happens to be in the mountains and have skiing in close proximity.

Summit county is a big place. While I think true ski towns are not going to correct these issues, and I say that very lightly, as ski town issues are the definition of a first world problem, I think mountain towns somewhat nearby (GWS, Montrose, Midway UT) still have some great opportunities for sustainable improvement ahead.

Of course, the mountain towns that don't show up on "Best Places to Live!" lists, full of ordinary people doing ordinary things, are not part of this conversation. I like those places.

[summit]

It will fit in nicely with Whole Foods and an outlet mall.

See also sodo-dillon and sodo-silverthorne in the plans

[goldenboy]

I work on the regulatory side of the development community on the other side of the Elks from you, I'm familiar with construction costs in the mountains, and the fact that there is a lot more driving them up than the simple cost of materials and labor.

.

For sure. Lots to it. When I was still doing construction a few years ago, though, I was finding that material costs were easily 35-40% cheaper in Denver when I did a couple of jobs there. It doesn't exactly help. And that isn't even getting into the economies of scale that an urban builder can achieve when they're building a whole block at a time.

I'm definitely on the high density bandwagon when it comes to both owning and renting affordable housing. Like Shredgnar said, no one deserves a deed restricted SF home. Dirt is limited so those projects need to be at least duplexes if not more.

And to WTF's comment, that's totally what is happening here. There is a proposal for a high density apartment building south of town. The NIMBY's haven't quite said "we don't want those people near us", but the truth is they don't want "those people" near them.

[Danno]

Of course, the mountain towns that don't show up on "Best Places to Live!" lists, full of ordinary people doing ordinary things, are not part of this conservation.

Freudian typo?

[goldenboy]

The sad thing is I feel like the cat is already out of the bag for summit county. Not sure when exactly it happened but the past few seasons whenever I am in summit county it just feels like a Denver suburb to me. A suburb that happens to be in the mountains and have skiing in close proximity.

20 years ago. You can have a nice little day in Summit- off to the outlet mall, home depot, maybe even bed bath and beyond. If you have time.

[hatchgreenchile]

Freudian typo?

Derp derp derp.

[SKIP IN7RO]

Not sure when exactly it happened

The full Epic pass (ie, full Vail days) was introduced in the 08/09 season. It dropped a Vail pass from $1,849 to $579....credit to pugski.

I think it started when ryan and trista pranced around on national television in Vail, circa 2003.

[Benny Profane]

I work on the regulatory side of the development community on the other side of the Elks from you, I'm familiar with construction costs in the mountains, and the fact that there is a lot more driving them up than the simple cost of materials and labor.

I also want to point out that Benny did a great show of displaying his ignorance of development economics below.

Oh? Please elaborate.

If it was so profitable to build for dirtbags, the builders would be falling over each other to do it. Why not? I mean, there's your free market. It's why Manhattan, nice towns in the NYC burbs, SF, and a lot of other places are so expensive. They're building anything with "luxury" in the description, even though most of it is the same old crap, because that's where the money is. Not some ski instructor with no money and no health insurance. Nope, Mr. and Mrs. BMW Gaper from somewhere else chasing their dream.

[summit]

^Interested to hear glademaster's take as there was an subsidized development in Summit that was just put on hold because they only got one developer bid and it was way high

Of course Summit's Housing Authority is a shitshow that has gone through 3 admin clerks, a planner, and 2 executive directors in <18 months (including a lawsuit from one ED and an ED candidate who turned down the job because of "lack of affordable housing"). In the heat of that controversy, they asked for a millions of dollars in county affordable housing tax increases (via a sales tax that hits every worker!) and the voters approved it! Insanity!

Affordable housing turned into a lottery... except you can't opt out of buying a ticket even though you might not be allowed to win!

[Name Redacted]

Some towns are just requiring a certain amount of lower-end affordable units in any new condo construction. That means the rest of the units are priced super high to offset.


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