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  1. #15701
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
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    STL
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    13,294
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Yield on the 10y is more than double the SPY now.

    Afaict ratio hasn’t been this high since 2008 pre gfc. It was fairly normal ratio until then.
    At some point, cash will be directed into bonds and no longer stocks. Can’t see how mkt is not completely crushed. Depends on leverage I guess.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  2. #15702
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,814
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    At some point, cash will be directed into bonds and no longer stocks. Can’t see how mkt is not completely crushed. Depends on leverage I guess.
    Investors who were afraid of stocks or perceived safety and were in bonds instead of cash the last few years have been devastated. They’ll never make that money back. I agree though. Equities can get seriously repriced and go below the historical multiple in an overshoot.

  3. #15703
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Investors who were afraid of stocks or perceived safety and were in bonds instead of cash the last few years have been devastated. They’ll never make that money back. I agree though. Equities can get seriously repriced and go below the historical multiple in an overshoot.
    Could be a meltdown from otc interest rate swaps. All the BS Frank Dodd chest pounding and that garbage is still not cross guaranteed through any kind of clearing house. No margin either. Trillions of risk on.

    Has to be someone big bleeding bad.


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  4. #15704
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    9,300ft
    Posts
    21,938
    +50 basis

    Market like!
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  5. #15705
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,814
    Lots of curve steepening after the close.

  6. #15706
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    8,246
    Quote Originally Posted by rod9301 View Post
    Yeah, but with interest rates going up and inflation, the 20 year doesn't look so good.

    My point is that of xom goes down, which it will, you don't have to sell, just wait till it goes back up, and collect the dividend.

    Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk
    XOM is by far my best performer. Up 135% from where I bought it. Plus the dividend will pay for about 4 months worth of gas...So, I have that going for me, which is nice.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  7. #15707
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,814
    Waited two years for rates to come in to deploy capital for income. I've been working on it for a couple weeks. Yields 5.1% and I'm down .25% as of close today: JEPI, PDI, BOND, EMB, FMSDX, T, VZ. It's over 100% because PDI uses leverage. T and VZ both small.

    Click image for larger version. 

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  8. #15708
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
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    13,294
    Yesterday may have been last call for a while.


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  9. #15709
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    New Haven Line heading north
    Posts
    2,944
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    Yesterday may have been last call for a while.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Liquidity is expensive today.
    Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.

  10. #15710
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    3,581
    I was thinking yesterday afternoon the market had entered bizarro world. This is more along the lines of what I expected.

  11. #15711
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Paper St. Soap Co.
    Posts
    3,303
    ^I was thinking the same, yesterday was a wtf.

  12. #15712
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Juneau
    Posts
    1,093
    Agreed, mostly because the risk of a 75 bp hike seemed very, very, very low. Or, the risk was disproportionate to the post-hike-announcement celebration.

  13. #15713
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    The Bull City
    Posts
    14,003
    IS THE STOCK MARKET GOING TO TANK?

    Yes
    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

  14. #15714
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Big Sky/Moonlight Basin
    Posts
    14,417
    Projections on the bottom: Dow 18K ??


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    "Zee damn fat skis are ruining zee piste !" -Oscar Schevlin

    "Hike up your skirt and grow a dick you fucking crybaby" -what Bunion said to Harry at the top of The Headwaters

  15. #15715
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    13,294
    Quote Originally Posted by Harry View Post
    Projections on the bottom: Dow 18K ??


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    29999 would be take off half your shorts.

    23,365 would be double fisted buy.

    18,000 would be take out a note on the island and buy on margin.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  16. #15716
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,814

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Still haven’t taken out the Weekly low and the 5yn is unchanged from Monday. Violent curve adjustment. Should be good for banks

  17. #15717
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,814
    The 1yr note is well off it’s high yield. The 30y breaking out makes growth stocks multiple collapse

  18. #15718
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,814
    Reversals after Fed meetings are not unusual.

  19. #15719
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    shadow of HS butte
    Posts
    6,398
    How is the bond market affecting those getting ready to collect, or already collecting, on their 401k? Is it correct to assume that a lot of those people took a pretty big hit?

    Looking at my current portfolio as a youngin, it seems locking things up via bond investments come later, closer to retirement. Am I off with this line of thinking?


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  20. #15720
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,814

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by east or bust View Post
    How is the bond market affecting those getting ready to collect, or already collecting, on their 401k? Is it correct to assume that a lot of those people took a pretty big hit?

    Looking at my current portfolio as a youngin, it seems locking things up via bond investments come later, closer to retirement. Am I off with this line of thinking?


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Balance portfolios have been mercilessly crushed. 2022 is the worst year for a 60/40 mix ever. It’s the rate of change in bond yields as much as the yield level. Personally, I think now would be a good time to add some yield with treasury rates double the S&P dividend rate.

    My favorite perma bear David Rosenberg gives a convincing pitch for owning bonds now though. Skip the first 5 minutes or so if you want to get to the meat.



  21. #15721
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    4,760
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    29999 would be take off half your shorts.

    23,365 would be double fisted buy.

    18,000 would be take out a note on the island and buy on margin.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Thanks for the laugh. Needed it after today.

  22. #15722
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    9,300ft
    Posts
    21,938
    Quote Originally Posted by stalefish3169 View Post
    Thanks for the laugh. Needed it after today.
    Says the cryptBro

    I agree with cono
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  23. #15723
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Posts
    7,454
    I've always appreciated 4matics dry anti rant fact based postings. Thank you.

  24. #15724
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    4,760
    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    Says the cryptBro

    I agree with cono
    I was being serious. This was legit funny, "18,000 would be take out a note on the island and buy on margin." And although buying the blood at 18k seems like it could be very lucrative in the long run, I suspect the rebound will not be anything like March 2020, or even 2009 for that matter. Those were largely fueled by QE and the QE cannon seems like it's out of ammo for a while.

    I have about half of my net worth in my 401k. Watching it get absolutely clobbered is not fun. These are scary times for me.

  25. #15725
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
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    STL
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    Quote Originally Posted by east or bust View Post
    How is the bond market affecting those getting ready to collect, or already collecting, on their 401k? Is it correct to assume that a lot of those people took a pretty big hit?

    Looking at my current portfolio as a youngin, it seems locking things up via bond investments come later, closer to retirement. Am I off with this line of thinking?


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Some bond funds are down 10-15%.

    I bet the salesman didn’t explain how jacked these thing were.

    BOND has been smoked.


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